Economy Do you think the housing market is going to crash soon(ish)?

Cole train said:
Economy is tanking, no growth for 20 years, unemployment at 10,3 procent and rising

No one can afford prices lol but im not an economist
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Yeah, that'll do it. I've always had the impression that it's a good country. Here in the US, we never hear anything negative from Nordic countries, except for immigration.
 
HockeyBjj said:
How would it crash? People are still desperate to buy

If prices drop 20k there will be a rush of buyers. It won’t crash, maybe just drop a couple percent along with the rest of economy but that’s not a crash

Demand outweighs supply by a wide margin. Thats why prices have shot up so much recently
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Meh... depends where you are.

Prices in Texas (I'm in Houston) massively rose during the pandemic as floods of people moved here.

In response, Texas had a massive house building boom, coupled with AirBnB cratering... prices have dropped in the last 2 years.

During the peak a few years ago, houses were snatched up withing days. Now houses are much slower to move.

California should take note... the massive restrictions on building and years of red government tape has exasperated their housing issues. And even after promising to streamline the process after the fires, nothing has changed.



What It Means for Buyers, Sellers & Investors​

Buyers​

  • More leverage than in overheating markets with higher inventory and slower sales, there’s room to negotiate.
  • Be selective: Homes in better condition, strong locations, or with desirable features will outpace average homes.
  • Prepare for tradeoffs: You may need to balance size, condition, and location to fit within your budget.

Sellers​

  • Pricing is more critical than ever. Overpricing in this climate often leads to extended days on market.
  • Homes that are well-maintained, staged, and competitively marketed will attract the strongest offers.
  • Flexibility in terms such as closing dates, minor concessions, or repairs can be the differentiator.

Sellers are losing pricing power​

With homes taking 63 days pending and nearly half priced below “average,” your first offer might be your best offer. Overpricing now isn’t a flex — it’s a mistake.

Buyers now have genuine leverage​

When there’s 6 months of supply, homes take 63 days pending, and the Market Index is at 46, you’re not in “bidding war” anymore. Buyers can demand repairs, credits, and longer inspection windows — things unthinkable in 2021.

All the ingredients for price cuts are in the bowl​

Inventory up. Days pending up. Market temperature down. City ZHVI down. That’s the recipe you’ve seen in every past correction. Price cuts aren’t coming — they’re already happening quietly in MLS feeds.
 
Scerpi said:
Meh... depends where you are.

Prices in Texas (I'm in Houston) massively rose during the pandemic as floods of people moved here.

In response, Texas had a massive house building boom, coupled with AirBnB cratering... prices have dropped in the last 2 years.

During the peak a few years ago, houses were snatched up withing days. Now houses are much slower to move.

California should take note... the massive restrictions on building and years of red government tape has exasperated their housing issues. And even after promising to streamline the process after the fires, nothing has changed.



What It Means for Buyers, Sellers & Investors​

Buyers​

  • More leverage than in overheating markets with higher inventory and slower sales, there’s room to negotiate.
  • Be selective: Homes in better condition, strong locations, or with desirable features will outpace average homes.
  • Prepare for tradeoffs: You may need to balance size, condition, and location to fit within your budget.

Sellers​

  • Pricing is more critical than ever. Overpricing in this climate often leads to extended days on market.
  • Homes that are well-maintained, staged, and competitively marketed will attract the strongest offers.
  • Flexibility in terms such as closing dates, minor concessions, or repairs can be the differentiator.

Sellers are losing pricing power​

With homes taking 63 days pending and nearly half priced below “average,” your first offer might be your best offer. Overpricing now isn’t a flex — it’s a mistake.

Buyers now have genuine leverage​

When there’s 6 months of supply, homes take 63 days pending, and the Market Index is at 46, you’re not in “bidding war” anymore. Buyers can demand repairs, credits, and longer inspection windows — things unthinkable in 2021.

All the ingredients for price cuts are in the bowl​

Inventory up. Days pending up. Market temperature down. City ZHVI down. That’s the recipe you’ve seen in every past correction. Price cuts aren’t coming — they’re already happening quietly in MLS feeds.
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Right. But because the prices where inflated in the first part (either through covid booms or limited building from red tape) the prices can come down some and then it’s just more buyers able to buy and thus stop the fall of prices.

Some prices dropping but the seller still profiting isn’t a crash. That’s what I expect here, a 5-10% drop in sale price on area.
 
HockeyBjj said:
Right. But because the prices where inflated in the first part (either through covid booms or limited building from red tape) the prices can come down some and then it’s just more buyers able to buy and thus stop the fall of prices.

Some prices dropping but the seller still profiting isn’t a crash. That’s what I expect here, a 5-10% drop in sale price on area.
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It'll be interesting to see what happens.

My home town, Denver, has been overpriced for three decades. A combination of a huge influx of people moving from both coasts and limited areas to build.

I was raised on the west side in Lakewood and we'd make fun of Aurora, calling it Saudi Aurora because we thought it was located so far southeast that it basically wasn't considered part of Denver Metro. Now there's developments way further east of Aurora out to Limon which is almost 60 miles from the former edge of the Metro.

Also, housing filled in all along from Colorado Springs up to Fort Collins, where there used to be nothing in between the cities. When I was a kid, there was around 2 million in all of Colorado. Now there's 5 million plus just along the "Front Range" (Pueblo to Fort Collins).

Too many people, not enough room.

And don't get me started on I70 from Denver to the ski resorts... fuck that shit
 
therealdope said:
You are high. There are segments of the market in some areas of Canada that are already down 15-20%
- no foreign buying
- wage stagnation
- shut-off of insane immigration policies
- trade war


I can't imagine what the effect on prices will be with the BC land claims cluster fuck.
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The trends can look nice when you chop them up into 3-5 year intervals. In the grand scheme of things being lower than a recent unprecedented peak doesn't mean much if we are still trending towards less affordability. Kinda interesting though that PR cards get reduced by 20% and places gasping for air like Vancouver recover 15% fairly quickly.
 
aerius said:
The housing market in North America is massively overpriced and long overdue for a crash. When it happens and what sets it off is anyone's guess, I thought it would've happened by now but as the saying goes, "the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent".
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I don’t think it’s going to happen unless they introduce significantly more inventory. If they introduce this 50 year mortgage nonsense, it definitely won’t crash anytime soon
 
Scerpi said:
My home town, Denver, has been overpriced for three decades.
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portland, the Bay Area, seattle, so many of these cities had prices skyrocket and never settle back down. Sadly I can’t imagine a world where prices in these cities or Denver ever drop enough to be attainable for average folks
 
DoctorTaco said:
portland, the Bay Area, seattle, so many of these cities had prices skyrocket and never settle back down. Sadly I can’t imagine a world where prices in these cities or Denver ever drop enough to be attainable for average folks
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I was shocked at the home prices in Texas when I moved here in 2005 for work

I was buying my first house and the realtor asked my price range. I was thinking Denver prices and was hoping for something decent at $250-$300k

She started sending me giant houses with amazing pools

First off… didn’t know pools were a common thing and second… holy shit at these houses

I got a great house with an amazing backyard and pool for $170k

Never left… still in that house
 
Scerpi said:
I was shocked at the home prices in Texas when I moved here in 2005 for work

I was buying my first house and the realtor asked my price range. I was thinking Denver prices and was hoping for something decent at $250-$300k

She started sending me giant houses with amazing pools

First off… didn’t know pools were a common thing and second… holy shit at these houses

I got a great house with an amazing backyard and pool for $170k

Never left… still in that house
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That’s crazy, good on you. I bought out in the burbs for 365 pre pandemic and it’s gained 10% value since then. It’s strange owning a home I couldn’t afford today
 
Kassitus said:
The trends can look nice when you chop them up into 3-5 year intervals. In the grand scheme of things being lower than a recent unprecedented peak doesn't mean much if we are still trending towards less affordability. Kinda interesting though that PR cards get reduced by 20% and places gasping for air like Vancouver recover 15% fairly quickly.
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The thread topic is "crash". Crashes about holders, not buyers.
 
I never thought Trump would attempt something like this because he seems real cozy with Wall Street Real Estate people, but NY just voted in a socialist Mayor so all bets are off I guess.

Trump says U.S. to ban large investors from buying homes​


President Donald Trump said the U.S. should bar large institutional investors from buying single-family homes, arguing that corporate ownership has helped push housing further out of reach for everyday Americans.

“For a very long time, buying and owning a home was considered the pinnacle of the American Dream. It was the reward for working hard, and doing the right thing, but now, because of the Record High Inflation caused by Joe Biden and the Democrats in Congress, that American Dream is increasingly out of reach for far too many people, especially younger Americans,” Trump said in a Truth Social post Wednesday.

“It is for that reason, and much more, that I am immediately taking steps to ban large institutional investors from buying more single-family homes, and I will be calling on Congress to codify it. People live in homes, not corporations,” he added.

Private equity giants, real estate investment trusts and other large institutional investors have amassed sizable portfolios of single-family rental homes over the past decade. Many have argued that these investments have reduced housing supply for would-be homeowners and helped drive up prices.

Invitation Homes which is the largest renter of single-family homes in the country, tumbled 6%. Shares of Blackstone an investing firm that owns and rents single-family homes, dropped more than 5%. Private equity firm Apollo Global Management
also declined over 5%.




 
This guy suggests it may have the reverse than intended effect (or no real effect?)



Maybe the solution is just to create more homes with better materials and more innovative solutions?

 
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