Tactics and Strategy: Tom v Jon

[BowserJr]

This will be the biggest HW matchup since Fedor v CC if it happens. When Jon sliced thru the aging LHW division it looked like he had "no known weakness" until he fought Gustafson the 1st time. That's when many of us realized that his striking was merely ok when he fights opponents as rangey as him. It was solidified with his fights against Santos and Reyes.

At first glance some might say it's no longer the case and use Gane and Stipe as examples but the reality is that Jones did not strike with Gane so we didn't see that at all. And Stipe was old, coming off a KO loss and a 4 + year lay off. Stipe looked very slow which was too be expected.

After seeing Jon face many different types of opponents, strikers, grapplers, well rounded fighters, etc it is apparent that he hasn't faced the type of opponent that most guys have to face. Someone well rounded with roughly the same size and reach. The closest thing was Reyes and as we've seen he's no world beater.

Here are the well rounded guys hes faced
Shogun, Machida, Rampage, Vitor, Glover, DC, Rashad, Stipe.
All were much shorter except stipe who was shopworn and old

His grappling is good so with strikers they will always fear the grappling which means dropping their guard and possibly getting worked on the ground. Despite that Gus did great the 1st time and Santos did too.

The best grapplers he faced where Bader, DC, Glover, Shogun. Again he was much bigger than all of them. Had he gone to HW in his prime he would've faced many grapplers his size and many of them were good at striking too. Werdum, Barnett, Cain, Mir. Even the strikers then had good grappling or at least good grappling defense. JDS, Reem, AA.

If we finally see Tom Jones, Tommy Jon... Aspinall v Jones, it will be the first time we see him fight a well rounded fighter who is his size and is equally if not faster on the feet.

The biggest threats each have are Tom's hand speed and Jon's wrestling
What are the key tactics or strategy for each fighter to win?

 

[HHJ]

I kind of wonder how Jon's TDD is at this stage of his career. What if Big Tom manages to blast double him? can he thwart that?

Jon has a great chin but goddamn Tom has bodied anyone he's hit flush, many times early.

Jones def want that on top of Stipe position where he can do the same elbow attack, but will he be able to before he gets clocked?\

Tom def comes forward without fear and can be a bit reckless w defense. Jones could maybe go for a flying knee but he could get taken down off that.

 

[svmr_db]

Strategy: Bop Jon in the temple really fast with lightning quick hands

 

[BowserJr]

Tom is arguably a better striker with faster hand speed and better footwork. Jon is more diverse but judging HW match history superior punching is far more important than anything else.

Jon has better wrestling but Tom is nonslouch on the ground. He's looked absolutely great in the UFC.

If anything I'd expect a good body and oblique kicking strategy from Jones. Then likely getting a takedown along the fence and punishing Tom with gnp.

After 2 rounds of this I bet Tom gets tired and finds himself in a very bad position where he can't properly defend.

Tom's best shot is to work on takedown and trip defense and sweeps or getting up with the cage. And of course cardio.

If Tom's cardio holds up and he's able to defend takedowns consistently I can see him dropping jones and maybe finishing him. HW punches are simply more powerful. Other than that Tom has to hope he lands within the 1st 2 rounds.

I dont see Tom getting submitted which IMO is what makes this matchup the most interesting.

He's a huge danger on the feet and he likely won't get submitted like Gane

 

[BowserJr]

I kind of wonder how Jon's TDD is at this stage of his career. What if Big Tom manages to blast double him? can he thwart that?

Jon has a great chin but goddamn Tom has bodied anyone he's hit flush, many times early.

Jones def want that on top of Stipe position where he can do the same elbow attack, but will he be able to before he gets clocked?\

Tom def comes forward without fear and can be a bit reckless w defense. Jones could maybe go for a flying knee but he could get taken down off that.

A jumping or flying knee is likely from Jones against shorter smaller opponents. I don't see him using it here but wouldn't be surprised if he times it well.

I could also see him landing takedowns and eventually a TD feint to spinning elbow and hurting Tom

 

[Pain4Pain]

People are in denial that current Jones would lose to Tom. No amount of PEDs will close the gap at this stage in his career.

 

[Hymen Crusher]

If the fight stays on the feet tom is knocking him out. To me there is almost no chance jon can handle him on the feet. However people talk about the best grappler ever and bones isn't mentioned. I think he is the best ever the dude has never been controlled on the ground at all. Also I do think it matters when it's lhw and hw. You might be the best at ww but really there probably isn't a person who could out grapple jon in a mma setting.

 

[Tweak896]

Jones just needs to keep kicking Aspinall's knees until he damages it like he did Santos, Aspinall has already shown a weakness there

 

[Seekerofhole]

Jones just needs to keep kicking Aspinall's knees until he damages it like he did Santos, Aspinall has already shown a weakness there

You're talking about an injury that Tom had and didn't fix because he was offered fights non-stop. Perhaps Tom should bring a picture of Chael to the faceoff, Jon's shown a weakness to him prior.

 

[BowserJr]

If the fight stays on the feet tom is knocking him out. To me there is almost no chance jon can handle him on the feet. However people talk about the best grappler ever and bones isn't mentioned. I think he is the best ever the dude has never been controlled on the ground at all. Also I do think it matters when it's lhw and hw. You might be the best at ww but really there probably isn't a person who could out grapple jon in a mma setting.

Jon is an outstanding grappler. I do attribute most of his dominance there with his ability to use his limb length advantage. I always wanted to see him face good grapplers his size.

Tom is not an elite mma wrestler like Barnett or Cain nor is he a submission threat like Nog, Mir or Werdum but at least he is a similar sized opponent as Jones who is not old or a fish out of water on the ground

 

[BowserJr]

Jones just needs to keep kicking Aspinall's knees until he damages it like he did Santos, Aspinall has already shown a weakness there

That is a likely scenario IMO

It will at least get Tom to hesitate his blitz which will create openings and reduce risk for Jon.

 

[BowserJr]

People are in denial that current Jones would lose to Tom. No amount of PEDs will close the gap at this stage in his career.

Jon has a good chin and we haven't really seen Tom tested against a good wrestler though

 

[NextGen]

I've seen Jones lose to Reyes (fuck the judges) and nearly lose to Santos in his more recent fights. And that was the LHW Jones who was better than at HW.

He also couldn't take those guys down. There's absolutely no reason to think he'll take someone much bigger, stronger, and more athletic like Aspinall down who has a 100% TDD in the UFC.

So, this will likely be a fight on the feet. And Aspinall will catch Jones eventually. And odds are he'll finish him.

 

[NextGen]

Truth is Jones looked slow vs Stipe but it was just masked because Stipe looked like he was moving underwater.

Look at all those times Jones turned his back on Stipe. He was just fortunate Stipe was too old and slow to run him down and punish him.

If he pulled that against Aspinall, he's getting dropped.

Aspinall is simply too fast, strong, big, powerful, and well-rounded for Jones. This will be proven fast if this fight ever happens.

 

[NextGen]

If Jones can't get Aspinall down and control him there, he has no path to victory except some luck such as Aspinall having a freak injury.

OR Jones having a granite chin and taking every shot (unlike anyone else Tom has fought) and hoping Aspinall gases himself out after the first few rounds. But there's just no indication this is a weakness for Tom as he has finished fights in record time and shown no signs of fatigue even once.

 

[NextGen]

Jones is also almost no threat to TKO/KO Aspinall. I don't care if Aspinall fights reckless or with his hands down. He isn't putting his lights out.

Jones has only two wins by TKO/KO since 2013 and one of them was against old man Stipe.

 

[808nEffect]

This will be the biggest HW matchup since Fedor v CC if it happens. When Jon sliced thru the aging LHW division it looked like he had "no known weakness" until he fought Gustafson the 1st time. That's when many of us realized that his striking was merely ok when he fights opponents as rangey as him. It was solidified with his fights against Santos and Reyes.

At first glance some might say it's no longer the case and use Gane and Stipe as examples but the reality is that Jones did not strike with Gane so we didn't see that at all. And Stipe was old, coming off a KO loss and a 4 + year lay off. Stipe looked very slow which was too be expected.

After seeing Jon face many different types of opponents, strikers, grapplers, well rounded fighters, etc it is apparent that he hasn't faced the type of opponent that most guys have to face. Someone well rounded with roughly the same size and reach. The closest thing was Reyes and as we've seen he's no world beater.

Here are the well rounded guys hes faced
Shogun, Machida, Rampage, Vitor, Glover, DC, Rashad, Stipe.
All were much shorter except stipe who was shopworn and old

His grappling is good so with strikers they will always fear the grappling which means dropping their guard and possibly getting worked on the ground. Despite that Gus did great the 1st time and Santos did too.

The best grapplers he faced where Bader, DC, Glover, Shogun. Again he was much bigger than all of them. Had he gone to HW in his prime he would've faced many grapplers his size and many of them were good at striking too. Werdum, Barnett, Cain, Mir. Even the strikers then had good grappling or at least good grappling defense. JDS, Reem, AA.

If we finally see Tom Jones, Tommy Jon... Aspinall v Jones, it will be the first time we see him fight a well rounded fighter who is his size and is equally if not faster on the feet.

The biggest threats each have are Tom's hand speed and Jon's wrestling
What are the key tactics or strategy for each fighter to win?

You forgot Alexander Gustaffson. He did some damage on Bones. Both went to the hospital after the fight. Took a selfie together

 

[Koya]

This will be the biggest HW matchup since Fedor v CC if it happens. When Jon sliced thru the aging LHW division it looked like he had "no known weakness" until he fought Gustafson the 1st time. That's when many of us realized that his striking was merely ok when he fights opponents as rangey as him. It was solidified with his fights against Santos and Reyes.

At first glance some might say it's no longer the case and use Gane and Stipe as examples but the reality is that Jones did not strike with Gane so we didn't see that at all. And Stipe was old, coming off a KO loss and a 4 + year lay off. Stipe looked very slow which was too be expected.

After seeing Jon face many different types of opponents, strikers, grapplers, well rounded fighters, etc it is apparent that he hasn't faced the type of opponent that most guys have to face. Someone well rounded with roughly the same size and reach. The closest thing was Reyes and as we've seen he's no world beater.

Here are the well rounded guys hes faced
Shogun, Machida, Rampage, Vitor, Glover, DC, Rashad, Stipe.
All were much shorter except stipe who was shopworn and old

His grappling is good so with strikers they will always fear the grappling which means dropping their guard and possibly getting worked on the ground. Despite that Gus did great the 1st time and Santos did too.

The best grapplers he faced where Bader, DC, Glover, Shogun. Again he was much bigger than all of them. Had he gone to HW in his prime he would've faced many grapplers his size and many of them were good at striking too. Werdum, Barnett, Cain, Mir. Even the strikers then had good grappling or at least good grappling defense. JDS, Reem, AA.

If we finally see Tom Jones, Tommy Jon... Aspinall v Jones, it will be the first time we see him fight a well rounded fighter who is his size and is equally if not faster on the feet.

The biggest threats each have are Tom's hand speed and Jon's wrestling
What are the key tactics or strategy for each fighter to win?

It won't happen

 

[BowserJr]

You forgot Alexander Gustaffson. He did some damage on Bones. Both went to the hospital after the fight. Took a selfie together

I mentioned it in the first paragraph but yes!

 

[BowserJr]

It won't happen

Sinces Jones is involved you're probably right