Elections Official US 2024 Presidential Election Megathread: Trump v Harris

[idrankyourbeer]

They want to make the left upset.

It's their sole purpose in life.

They want to relive the euphoria of 2016, when they felt true joy for the first time in their life, because people they hate were upset.

that's all politics is to them. that's their only political ambitions. they'll cut their own dicks off and let donald trump fuck their wives with it as he sends them to jail if it means pissing off a libtard or two.

 

[K1levelgrappler]

If MLK today were alive today he’d be asking “Where’s Hunter?!”

 

[BFoe]

I’m Rusty Lips Higgins

Apparently I’d be Hairy Ass Joe

If it hadn’t been for Hairy Ass Joe
I’d have stolen the election a long time ago
Where did you come from, where did you go
Where did you come from, Hairy Ass Joe

 

[shockaholic12]

Trump has obliterated everyone in the two primaries he's been involved in though.

Republican voters have made it clear they don't want a moderate.

Think most of the party overestimated his ability to transfer his celebrity into votes and were just hoping he'd be checked a bit when in office like last time.

Trump was actually fairly restrained when he was running against Biden. Clearly by the efforts of his campaign managers. Then Harris stepped in and she started taking headlines and that went out the window. Now the mask is fully off and he's blowing mics on stage and calling democrats demons while roast comedians open for him with Puerto Rican burns.

 

[High Test With da Best]

I mean if the polls are off by even half as much as they were in 2016 and 2020 it's gonna be a landslide.

But it's still speculation at this point whether they'll be just as far off and of course there's all the election integrity issues that will always make Trump voters worried there'll be plenty of shenanigans again this time around.

Mmhmm.

I realized like a month ago that I hadn't read or heard any pieces talking about corrections or offsets made by polling outfits to specifically address the resultant widespread inaccuracies in both of Trump's previous runs. Asked in one of the threads if anyone else had come across anything like this and no one said yes.

Jack and Rob (I think) both graciously replied to state "they're a crapshoot" essentially along with a link or two, and I absolutely agree with that assessment and have for a long time.

However, with all methodologies, locales, internal statistical configurations and datasets being roughly the same, I'm thinking that it would be absolutely possible this third election for the firms to figure in a reasonable offset.

Could be some are, could be some aren't, but it seems none are publicly putting out info specific to that.

 

[Barteh]

Mmhmm.

I realized like a month ago that I hadn't read or heard any pieces talking about corrections or offsets made by polling outfits to specifically address the resultant widespread inaccuracies in both of Trump's previous runs. Asked in one of the threads if anyone else had come across anything like this and no one said yes.

Jack and Rob (I think) both graciously replied to state "they're a crapshoot" essentially along with a link or two, and I absolutely agree with that assessment and have for a long time.

However, with all methodologies, locales, internal statistical configurations and datasets being roughly the same, I'm thinking that it would be absolutely possible this third election for the firms to figure in a reasonable offset.

Could be some are, could be some aren't, but it seems none are publicly putting out info specific to that.

Ah I thought I responded to something from PEW Research to your question when I read it. Guess I skipped over doing that.

How Public Polling Has Changed in the 21st Century

A new study found that 61% of national pollsters used different methods in 2022 than in 2016. And last year, 17% of pollsters used multiple methods to sample or interview people – up from 2% in 2016.

www.pewresearch.org

I don't remember if they mention specific pollsters and their methods and I'm not gonna bother reading the whole thing again.

 

[Darkavius]

I think you are underestimating how stupid a large portion of this country is. A lot of people lack, or refuse to use, critical thinking on things like the economy and assume "Well things were cheaper in 2016, Trump must be better!" There are some things that I understand why people will vote straight republican no matter what like the pro gun crowd.

Not underestimating it at all. Just not truly understanding the reasoning which goes to your point of critical thinking. Trump could make things cheaper. His base is not wrong about that but it's going to involve a lack of quality and regulation. As far as the pro gun crowd, for example, I will never understand that talking point. Repubs have been talking about guns being taken away since Obama ran for President and not only has gun legislation not been taken away it has gotten more loose in many states.

 

[Helden]

Apparently I’d be Hairy Ass Joe

If it hadn’t been for Hairy Ass Joe
I’d have stolen the election a long time ago
Where did you come from, where did you go
Where did you come from, Hairy Ass Joe

 

[High Test With da Best]

Ah I thought I responded to something from PEW Research to your question when I read it. Guess I skipped over doing that.

How Public Polling Has Changed in the 21st Century

A new study found that 61% of national pollsters used different methods in 2022 than in 2016. And last year, 17% of pollsters used multiple methods to sample or interview people – up from 2% in 2016.

www.pewresearch.org

I don't remember if they mention specific pollsters and their methods and I'm not gonna bother reading the whole thing again.

Could have been you as one of the couple replies I got sorry if I forgot.

These changes based on current communication tech and preference are of course good to see and necessary. I'll check out the link later to see if they touch upon my topic.

Could just be their keels are too fixed to steer around a Trumpberg (so to speak, insert any candidate there) and they're not willing to factor in person-specific offsets.

 

[Possum Jenkins]

Trump is a moderate. He literally used to be a democrat in the 90s and he's the first president in US history who openly supported gay marriage.

Yeah, but what he did in the 90s doesn't matter at this point. What he did starting in 2016 and up until today is more relevant.

He's an authoritarian and his constituents demand even more authoritarianism.

 

[Fedorgasm]

What's considered the most reliable and unbiased poll?

 

[Islam Imamate]

What's considered the most reliable and unbiased poll?

Look at this TUF newb asking for a poll when we all know you only look at polling averages.

 

[rocketskates]

Trump has obliterated everyone in the two primaries he's been involved in though.

Republican voters have made it clear they don't want a moderate.

It’s foolish, and they’re going to set themselves up to lose tomorrow. I’ve said it before, I’m pretty moderate and a little right of center. I think most swing voters are in that same area. A moderate, well spoken, republican would’ve been a lock.

 

[mkess101]

Man...about a billion and a quarter spent on ads to get Kamala elected and just under a billion spent on ads to get Trump elected. That's all the better they could do, a couple billion? I thought some REAL money was gonna get spent on this one.

Don't they realize none of us have seen nearly enough ads telling us how women's bodies will be piled in the streets due to lack of readily available abortions and about how all our tax dollars are gonna be spent on letting immigrant tranny prisoners get their dicks cut off?

 

[mkess101]

It’s foolish, and they’re going to set themselves up to lose tomorrow. I’ve said it before, I’m pretty moderate and a little right of center. I think most swing voters are in that same area. A moderate, well spoken, republican would’ve been a lock.

No, because as I said Trump would've run as an independent and split the vote. The MAGA crowd would've stuck with him and you'd have zero doubt on who'd win the election. Dems in an absolute landslide. People said maybe Trump would've thrown his support and gotten the MAGA crowd behind someone else had someone risen up had they promised him a pardon but that belies what we know of Trump's ego. Wasn't happening.

 

[nonoob]

What's considered the most reliable and unbiased poll?​

Unfortunately there aren't any polls that are unbiased, and there never will be.

Figures can't lie, but liars put out false figures.

 

[Islam Imamate]

No, because as I said Trump would've run as an independent and split the vote. The MAGA crowd would've stuck with him and you'd have zero doubt on who'd win the election. Dems in an absolute landslide. People said maybe Trump would've thrown his support and gotten the MAGA crowd behind someone else had someone risen up had they promised him a pardon but that belies what we know of Trump's ego. Wasn't happening.

That's not really why Republicans voted for him though is it? They voted for him because they love him and they love him precisely because he is a norm breaking, divisive candidate who promises to wield power against the outgroups of his base.

 

[Andy Capp]

Interesting perspective from an Asian foreigner who went to both candidates' rallies to feel the different "vibes":

Confirmation bias is a helluva drug.

 

[Rob Battisti]

What's considered the most reliable and unbiased poll?

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/rcp-pollster-scorecard/

 

[White Whale]

John Fettermab admits Democrats use open borders and illegal immigrants to turn places blue.