Elections 2024 Election polls in retrospect

[chardog]

I want to leave this as an archival type post

Nate Silver: Last and final update: 12:30 a.m., Tuesday, November 5. Happy Election Day! At exactly midnight on Tuesday, we ran our simulation model for the final time in this election cycle. Out of 80,000 simulations, Kamala Harris won in 40,012 (50.015%) cases. She did not win in 39,988 simulations (49.985%). Of those, 39,718 were outright wins for Donald Trump and the remainder (270 simulations) were exact 269-269 Electoral College ties: these ties are likely to eventually result in Trump wins in the U.S. House of Representatives.

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A new Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll shows Vice President Harris leading former President Trump 47% to 44% among likely voters just days before a high-stakes election that appears deadlocked in key battleground states.
Ann Selzer
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fivethirtyeight Harris 48.0 / trump 46.8

pollster	date	sample	moe	Harris (D)	Trump (R)	spread
RCP Average	10/10 - 11/4	—	—	48.7	48.6	Harris+0.1
Atlas Intel	11/3 - 11/4	2703 LV	2.0	49	50	Trump+1
TIPP	11/2 - 11/4	1411 LV	2.7	48	48	Tie
Ipsos	11/1 - 11/3	973 LV	3.4	50	48	Harris+2
New York Post	10/31 - 11/3	886 LV	3.0	49	49	Tie
NPR/PBS/Marist	10/31 - 11/2	1297 LV	3.5	51	47	Harris+4
NBC News	10/30 - 11/2	1000 RV	3.0	49	49	Tie
Emerson	10/30 - 11/2	1000 LV	3.0	49	49	Tie
Forbes/HarrisX	10/30 - 11/2	3759 LV	1.6	51	49	Harris+2
Yahoo News	10/29 - 10/31	1074 LV	—	49	48	Harris+1
Morning Consult	10/29 - 10/31	8919 LV	1.0	49	47	Harris+2
Rasmussen Reports	10/10 - 10/29	12546 LV	2.0	46	49	Trump+3
CBS News	10/23 - 10/25	2161 LV	2.6	50	49	Harris+1
NY Times/Siena	10/20 - 10/23	2516 LV	2.2	48	48	Tie
Wall Street Journal	10/19 - 10/22	1500 RV	2.5	46	49	Trump+3
CNBC	10/15 - 10/19	1000 RV	3.1	46	48	Trump+2
USA Today/Suffolk	10/14 - 10/18	1000 LV	3.1	50	49	Harris+1
FOX News	10/11 - 10/14	870 LV	3.0	48	50	Trump+2

Actual results as it stands now, Trump 51.0 / Harris 47.5, the closest being Rassmussen and WSJ, everyone else underestimated trump, including Ann selzer and NPR/Marist by 6+ points.

trust the science........................ never meet your heroes

 

[Streeter]

Had the polls been accurate the House likely flips.

 

[White Whale]

'Why I was wrong': Allan Lichtman fails to predict correct outcome of election

Allan Lichtman, who predicted 9 of 10 elections, told USA TODAY he was taking time to assess why he was wrong.

www.usatoday.com

'Why I was wrong': Allan Lichtman fails to predict correct outcome of election

He was wrong.

Or so the American people decided.

Allan Lichtman, the historian who predicted 9 of the 10 last elections, failed to accurately predict who voters would chose to become the 47th president of the United States.

In a stunning political comeback, ex-President Donald Trump defeated Vice President and Democratic nominee Kamala Harris to reclaim the White House Tuesday night.

"Right now after a very long night I am taking some time off to assess why I was wrong and what the future holds for America," Lichtman told USA TODAY Wednesday morning.

Lichtman, an American University professor, had predicted Harris would narrowly beat Trump.

Trump, who lost the 2020 election that thrust President Joe Biden into the seat, overcame political obstacles, including two impeachments, a criminal conviction, and two attempted assassinations.

At the end of a nearly six-hour podcast hosted by his son Samuel Lichtman Tuesday, the 77-year-old history professor said he was shocked at the election's outcome.

People told him the keys he used to predict Kamala Harris winning actually favored Donald Trump but he refused or couldn't see it.

 

[Morning Star]

For all the talk Silver did this cycle about baking in underestimating Trump into his formula he still did it for the 3rd time in a row

 

[Only Here for Attachments]

I wouldn't trust Democrats to rig a game of Mouse Trap, let alone a presidential election.

 

[chardog]

For all the talk Silver did this cycle about baking in underestimating Trump into his formula he still did it for the 3rd time in a row

it is my long time opinion that many of these pollsters are simply rigged, and they sell hope. if they had it right, Kamala's funding would dry up overnight, some folks on the left figured it out silently and spoke via action. LA times, WaPo, and others that jumped off the Kamala train early, likely have their internal data and dont want to alienate the opposing party.

these same polls also provide ammo to discourage funding for the opposing party, who, other than true believers would be willing to donate to the losing party? Polling isnt as simple as prediction, the variable of the folks that refuse to participate in polling is an especially difficult one to crack, and if taking everything at face value leads to your preferred candidate receiving more funds and discourages the other side, it's a win win....... never mind the fact that this is very close to running a scam with real tampering implications.

from forbes:
The Biden—now Harris—campaign committee raised $997.2 million and Trump’s campaign committee raised $388 million in total between Jan. 2023 and Oct. 16, 2024, the most recent date for which Federal Election Commission filings are available, ending with $118 million and $36.2 million in cash on hand, respectively.

that is only from the official campaigns, outside PACS were similar amounts.

 

[Corona]

Alka seltzer thoroughly BESMIRCHED imo

 

[Morning Star]

it is my long time opinion that many of these pollsters are simply rigged, and they sell hope. if they had it right, Kamala's funding would dry up overnight, some folks on the left figured it out silently and spoke via action. LA times, WaPo, and others that jumped off the Kamala train early, likely have their internal data and dont want to alienate the opposing party.

these same polls also provide ammo to discourage funding for the opposing party, who, other than true believers would be willing to donate to the losing party? Polling isnt as simple as prediction, the variable of the folks that refuse to participate in polling is an especially difficult one to crack, and if taking everything at face value leads to your preferred candidate receiving more funds and discourages the other side, it's a win win....... never mind the fact that this is very close to running a scam with real tampering implications.

from forbes:
The Biden—now Harris—campaign committee raised $997.2 million and Trump’s campaign committee raised $388 million in total between Jan. 2023 and Oct. 16, 2024, the most recent date for which Federal Election Commission filings are available, ending with $118 million and $36.2 million in cash on hand, respectively.

that is only from the official campaigns, outside PACS were similar amounts.

Silver kept saying his gut said Trump but he didn't have the balls to go with it. He did what he accused others of doing which was drifting his prediction to 50/50.

 

[Killer Kadoogan]

when will you all realize, it's all fake?

 

[Fox by the Sea]

NPR not even trying

 

[Kowboy On Sherdog]

Sometimes it's best not to sip the Kool-Aide

 

[KAZSoliloquy]

you would have thought dems learned their lesson the first time.

 

[UberHere]

I wouldn't trust Democrats to rig a game of Mouse Trap, let alone a presidential election.

And most Americans aren’t trusting them to run the country either right now.

 

[Only Here for Attachments]

And most Americans aren’t trusting them to run the country either right now.

Of course, I'm just laughing at the concept of them being genius supervillains. They've been incompetent for years now.

 

[koquerelle]

I wouldn't trust Democrats to rig a game of Mouse Trap, let alone a presidential election.

Trump won 2 out 3 elections and buffoons want us to believe it's all rigged. Great logic.

 

[HOLA]

Trump won 2 out 3 elections and buffoons want us to believe it's all rigged. Great logic.

And the only one he actually lost was when he controlled the government.

 

[HOLA]

Anyway I think most (not all) pollsters try to do the best and most objective job they can. There was a lot of talk this election of people not even being honest with their spouses about who they were actually voting for. If they're not being honest with their spouses, they might not be with the pollsters.

Trump is a controversial figure, and the amount of people admitting they're voting for him is less than those that actually vote for him. It would be hard for the pollsters to accurately account for this.

 

[lsa]

Sometimes it's best not to sip the Kool-Aide

I could drink

 

[Lord_Impaler]

Yes they suck balls lol. Useless.

 

[CorninginChristianburg]

Look, I don't think you can blame the polls. Because, you know how Harris in the last few weeks was trying to appeal to that "secret female vote", the whole lying to your husbands thing, tell them you're voting Trump when you're voting Harris. They called it the "permission structure." As someone who knows a good number of conservatives, I think that was a badly caricatured stereotype of conservatives by people who don't know any conservatives.

But the reverse is undoubtedly true. There's some portion of liberal presenting, usually white men, who will never answer that they support Trump until they're asked by the ballot in the box. There's still a degree of shame in voting for Trump, especially if you reside in liberal circles, but we know these people have to exist because three times now the polls have undercounted despite what I believe to be genuine attempts to correct.