Brad Taschuk -
http://www.mmaoddsbreaker.com/news/bellator-120-main-card-opening-betting-odds/
Bellator received a lot of criticism when it booked Will Brooks vs. Nate Jolly on this PPV card, saying that the fight was pointless, but that was essentially the fight that saved this card. Will Brooks also has a bit of an advantage heading into this bout with Chandler in that he has probably had an eye on both Chandler and Alvarez, while they have been focusing on each other. Still, Chandler should be the superior wrestler here, and his overall MMA game has developed far beyond what Brooks has shown thus far. Unless the former champion suffers a big letdown after the change in opponents, I expect him to put Brooks away with strikes within the first two rounds, and for the line to get bet up accordingly.
This fight is just weird. Bjorn Rebney has made the case that it’s intriguing because you don’t know if Tito is going to come out and be able to bully Shlemenko for three rounds. Well, I disagree. I know Tito won’t be able to bully Shlemenko for three rounds because he hasn’t been able to fight hard for three rounds in about a decade. Even if Tito finds some early success, eventually he will slow down and Shlemenko will start ripping punches and kicks to the body, which will likely stop the fight. If offered, Shlemenko inside the distance is the play here, as I wouldn’t be shocked to see Tito tap to strikes rather than just waiting for the ref to step in, and it would be terrible to lose on a (T)KO prop because of that. I would be shocked if there was much money at all coming in on Tito in this fight, despite his massive size advantage.
I do think that despite not having faced the same quality of competition as his opponent, Michael Page will defeat Ricky Rainey. Page is taller, longer and a bit more versatile with his striking, and this fight is almost certainly going to take place on the feet. If it hits the ground, neither guy is a particularly big threat, but Page has flashed a bit more of a submission game in his short career, so I give him that edge although I suspect Rainey would be the one attempting to take things to the mat (and likely ending up on top). Even though I lean towards Page, I think the hype on him is a bit silly, and this line will probably become unplayable with parlay action coming in on him.
The heavyweight final is actually a half-decent fight as far as heavyweights go, and seems competitive on paper. I haven’t been particularly high on either of these fighters up to this point, but Volkov has definitely impressed me more in this tournament (which is strange, since he fought Mark Holata and Mighty Mo to get to the final). I think that Volkov has made improvements in his takedown defense, and his striking is way ahead of Ivanov’s. Likewise, Ivanov has an advantage on the ground, but I’m not sure if his wrestling is good enough to get it down and keep it there, or if his cardio can hold up for three rounds against someone offering more of a threat than Rich Hale. I do lean Volkov, but as long as this fight stays close to a pick em, I’m passing it. If Ivanov gets enough love from the public, I may come in on Volkov if he hits the +140 range however.
Brad Taschuk -
http://www.mmaoddsbreaker.com/news/bellator-120-full-card-opening-betting-odds/
A pair of mismatches (perhaps the organization is hoping for some early finishes and more time to hype the PPV), and a pair of competitive bouts on this prelim card.
In all honesty, if people weren’t so worries about Cheick Kongo’s chin giving out, this line would probably be closer to 7 or 8-to-1. He’s going to be massive in comparison to Smith, and will have both striking and wrestling advantages. I’m imagining that if there is a stoppage in this fight, it comes from Kongo kneeing Smith against the cage, or taking him down and using his ground-and-pound up against the cage. Either way, I expect Kongo to control the bout against a man who has only competed once in the past four years.
With most fighters, I’d be a bit concerned about the late notice Marcin Held is coming in on, but two factors don’t have me concerned in the slightest. First, he doesn’t cut much weight, so his cardio shouldn’t be impacted negatively. Second, he’s the type of fighter who makes his opponents adapt to him with his unique style of grappling. If anything, this is even worse for Nate Jolly than the Will Brooks fight. Although outmatched there, he was facing a fairly traditional fighter. Now he gets a fighter you really need some time to prepare for. He doesn’t have it, and he doesn’t have much of a shot here.
It’s been over a year since we last saw Shahbulat Shamhalaev (isn’t that fun to spell?) in the cage. He has been missed, because he is typically pretty fun to watch. Although at a height and reach disadvantage against most fighters in his division, he has very good timing, and I think he’ll put that to use against Fabricio Guerreiro while this fight is on the feet. The problem for Shamhalaev however is that if the fight doesn’t stay on the feet, Guerreiro will be at a big advantage. The Brazilian has looked markedly better since getting stopped by Frodo Khasbulaev, and especially impressed with his grappling against Des Green, which is something I think he can replicate here. It’s closer than the line indicates, and for that reason I lean towards the dog if I’m making a bet here.
I’m a bit less confident in Richman/Yamauchi. Both guys have a tendency to underpeform, but I have to side with Richman here. Yamauchi simply isn’t the prospect he was hyped up to be — if he was, they would be giving him a far easier fight than this. Richman is very hittable and can also be overly tentative at times, but that mainly comes against opponents who present a big KO of takedown threat, neither of which Yamauchi has shown much of in his career.
