Official UFC 173 Betting Thread - Post Your Bets!

[GAP14]

Which Sportsbook do you use mate?

Most of the Sportsbooks in Europe won't let you parlay different types of bets.

5dimes. I wanna deposit into bookmaker soon but from the sounds of it, they changed their live betting system drastically. I don't know if it's worth it anymore.

 

[EzFlyer]

ok, yea, idk. RE: titan, i'm keeping everything small here.

1u harris (not that he's really any good, but linderman just has ok hands and should NOT be at heavyweight)

0.4u starnes (just a gut feel.. herman 0-4 last 4, granted, against ufc hw's, but the guy looks lost. plus he has ZERO cardio. starnes has shown a good chin most of his career. (besides running from quarry))

0.6u O1.5 smith-foster. i think foster might eventually get the finish, but prolly would be a choke or something if so, and smith's so big/strong that he might be tough to stop early.

CONSIDERING a little stab on davis (tho little worried about brilz' wrestling) & probably passing on the other two bouts

 

[GAP14]

Really confused on both those lines as well EZ. don't know much about these fighters but after a quick fight finder, I don't know how Herman is a two to one favorite against anyone. I'm gonna take stabs at both underdogs as well.

Damn as soon as I went to bet Harris he jumped from +140 to -115.

Oh well, put half a unit on Harris + Starnes + Santos. Just for fun.

 

[GAP14]

Miocic is -650 now.
Call me crazy, but I think he's bettable at that price.

There's no way Maldanado wins this fight.

At the current price, I think this fight is dog or pass. Maldonado has shown that he gets stronger as the fight goes on while Stipe tends to gas a little more. If Stipe comes in with a good gameplan (wrestling) he wins this fight easily. In a five round fight however, he may get sucked into a fist fight which is where the ex-pro boxer Maldonado thrives.

I will likely stay away from this fight altogether.

 

[Goreds1994]

how the heck are people betting linderman...

Maybe because Harris got KO'd quickly last fight? Idk a 20 second fight never shows anything except that someone got caught. Harris is much better than he showed in that fight.

 

[Degen Gambler]

At the current price, I think this fight is dog or pass. Maldonado has shown that he gets stronger as the fight goes on while Stipe tends to gas a little more. If Stipe comes in with a good gameplan (wrestling) he wins this fight easily. In a five round fight however, he may get sucked into a fist fight which is where the ex-pro boxer Maldonado thrives.

I will likely stay away from this fight altogether.

Agree. Even if Fabulous only has a puncher's chance (1/10) the value is thin at best.

 

[GAP14]

I also feel like the this is the year of the upset in regards to UFC. We've seen a bunch of crazy dogs beating good competition (Eduardo and Santos come to mind).

So I'm throwing down $1000 on Dillashaw. Who's with me!?!

:icon_chee

 

[Dooze]

For some reason I thought Maldonado was facing Arlovksi, would have been a belter of a fight and I'd really like Maldonado's chances.

Though I'd like to see Fabio and Stipe engage in a boxing match, I think Stipe doesn't bother trying to entertain and uses his hands sparingly at first, just enough to set up a shot. Stipe should have no trouble taking Maldonado down and early on he can probably keep him down for a while.

It being 5 rounds will definitely favour Maldonado, though. If it goes to the championship rounds, I definitely expect Maldonado to have the fuller gas-tank and when the fight is on the feet, Maldonado to be landing to the body to help slow Stipe down.

I don't think Stipe is playable straight up at the current odds. Despite it being a HW fight, I think the best thing to look at here would be the overs. Until all the props come out, o2.5 rounds at -105 is the best bet on that fight by far. Stipe has power, but Maldonado can take a beating if it comes to that. Maldonado isn't a 1 punch KO type guy either, it's accumulation he's after.

I think if I had to cap it, I'd probably go for

Stipe:
KO - 25%
Sub - 7.5%
Dec - 40%

Maldonado:
KO - 10%
Sub - 2.5%
Dec - 15%

It being a 5 round fight helps improve Maldonado's chances significantly, for me, otherwise I'd probably cut chances down to 5/2.5/5 respectively.

Not sure on how all this equates odds-wise, but despite it being a HW fight I do think the overs is the best play so far.

 

[GAP14]

I was thinking the over as well. My only problem with the over is I really think Stipe can get the submission finish if he goes after it. But who knows, dudes got the heart of a champion and he wasn't submitted by much better fighters (Glover).

 

[EzFlyer]

Maybe because Harris got KO'd quickly last fight? Idk a 20 second fight never shows anything except that someone got caught. Harris is much better than he showed in that fight.

we THINK he could be, but he definitely has cardio issues. linderman is just poor, though.. he's never beaten anyone worthwhile, really, and should not be at HW.

it's not as lopsided as i originally thought, and i kinda wish i didn't bother. hoping harris gets bet so i can hedge off some of it, heh.

 

[EzFlyer]

didn't even look before - miocic-maldonado O2.5 -125 looks pretty sweet. getting 1u in on that now.

 

[Social Distance Warrior]

At the current price, I think this fight is dog or pass. Maldonado has shown that he gets stronger as the fight goes on while Stipe tends to gas a little more. If Stipe comes in with a good gameplan (wrestling) he wins this fight easily. In a five round fight however, he may get sucked into a fist fight which is where the ex-pro boxer Maldonado thrives.

I will likely stay away from this fight altogether.

Very well stated...I favor Stipe...but at -650, that's fu*king ridiculous.

 

[GAP14]

Yeah, just put a unit on that too EZ. I think it hits way more than -125 suggests. Can a more experienced gambler actually break down how odds/percentage to happen is calculated?

For example, Fabio Maldonado is +420. So the books are suggesting he wins this fight what percent of the time?


Also my NBA play tonight is Pacers/Wizards over 180.5 points + OKC +4.5

Pays out at +250...

 

[AkDeath]

For some reason Starnes at +165 over Herman jumped out at me. Just going off of Starnes last fight his striking actually looked pretty damn powerful and Herman has shit for a chin and bad cardio to go with it. I honestly don't know what Herman is good at....1u on Starnes.

 

[AkDeath]

Yeah, just put a unit on that too EZ. I think it hits way more than -125 suggests. Can a more experienced gambler actually break down how odds/percentage to happen is calculated?

For example, Fabio Maldonado is +420. So the books are suggesting he wins this fight what percent of the time?

I echo this, still not sure how to calculate implied odds. :icon_conf

 

[GAP14]

Very well stated...I favor Stipe...but at -650, that's fu*king ridiculous.

I'll definitely be dropping a unit or two on FOTN lol.

 

[Social Distance Warrior]

I'll definitely be dropping a unit or two on FOTN lol.

That's not a bad idea at all...I'll tail you on that.

Maldo can take an enormous beating...hell, had the ref not stopped the fight against Glover that would have gone to decision.

Great idea.

 

[GAP14]

That's not a bad idea at all...I'll tail you on that.

Maldo can take an enormous beating...hell, had the ref not stopped the fight against Glover that would have gone to decision.

Great idea.

I know right! That was one of the worst beatings I've ever seen in the octagon. Dude looked like Erick Silva except he had an unlimited gas tank.

We'll probably only get the FOTN prop at +200 or +250 but that's almost free money, barring some insane FOTY performance from another fight on the card.

May 31st is gonna be awesome. This Brazil card AND the Berlin card all in one day. A gambler's dream come true.

EDIT: Damn, I really thought Maldonado made it to decision that fight. THANK GOD my mind served me incorrectly. Can't even imagine that third round if the doctor hadn't stopped it early.

 

[Scythe]

For example, Fabio Maldonado is +420. So the books are suggesting he wins this fight what percent of the time?

Pedantic math example:

Spoiler

To convert American odds on an underdog:

The formula if you're interested is: 100/(x+100)

100/520 is going to be the probability in this case. 19.23% or close to 1/5 as you can see from the fraction.

For a favorite:

Take the reverse, -420.

The formula is going to be x/(x+100).

In this case: 420/520.

That would equal out to 80.77% (you could also take the +420 result and simply subtract it from 100% for the reverse, but that's extra work).

Hope this is possibly what you were looking for.

 

[PuertoRican]

ninja roberts hasn't fought since 1/13, and that was a split loss to baesman, whom i don't rate very highly... but man, you'd think he'd beat jardine, right? sub or dec?

I saw Roberts' last fight against Baesman, it was on that free MMA card that Nick Diaz held. Roberts looked terrible and didn't have enough gas for 2 full rounds. Even with the gas, he didn't show anything that Baesman had to be worried about.