Official UFC 173 Betting Thread - Post Your Bets!

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Pedantic math example:
To convert American odds on an underdog:

The formula if you're interested is: 100/(x+100)

100/520 is going to be the probability in this case. 19.23% or close to 1/5 as you can see from the fraction.

For a favorite:

Take the reverse, -420.

The formula is going to be x/(x+100).

In this case: 420/520.

That would equal out to 80.77% (you could also take the +420 result and simply subtract it from 100% for the reverse, but that's extra work).

Hope this is possibly what you were looking for.

Okay, that's exactly it! Thank you very much. Interestingly enough, I think ~20% is on the money for how often Maldonado wins this fight. Perhaps slightly even lower honestly. He's gotta make this a dog fight from the get go, or Stipe is going to rough him up pretty bad.
 
Pedantic math example:
To convert American odds on an underdog:

The formula if you're interested is: 100/(x+100)

100/520 is going to be the probability in this case. 19.23% or close to 1/5 as you can see from the fraction.

For a favorite:

Take the reverse, -420.

The formula is going to be x/(x+100).

In this case: 420/520.

That would equal out to 80.77% (you could also take the +420 result and simply subtract it from 100% for the reverse, but that's extra work).

Hope this is possibly what you were looking for.


Thankyou so much now I don't have to pretend I know this.
 
5dimes. I wanna deposit into bookmaker soon but from the sounds of it, they changed their live betting system drastically. I don't know if it's worth it anymore.

Even if Bookmaker's live betting is not as good as before, their system is still better than anyone else's. So I don't really see how it could not be worth it. Especially since using 5Dimes and Bookmaker's live betting are not mutually exclusive.
 
Miocic is -650 now.
Call me crazy, but I think he's bettable at that price.

There's no way Maldanado wins this fight.

In a 3 round fight yes, but no way in a 5 round fight.

MMA Fighting Money Line Total Points
Titan FC 28 - Light Heavyweight 3 rounds - First Council Casino Hotel - Newkirk, Oklahoma, United States - CBS Sports Network
Fri 5/16 2001 Raphael Davis -115 o2
 
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In a 3 round fight yes, but no way in a 5 round fight.



Honestly, I might take a stab at Brock Jardine @ +125 & Alvin Robinson +235 Oh, and I love Harris at hose odds; DJ is terrible. If Walt weren't so flawed and Guillard-esque in his approach, I'd go heavy, but this whole card screams "Go small".

I do like Starnes too, and to answer your question on why he's at HW fighting Herman, it is b/c he can't get any reputable fights a 205 despite winning 4 in a row. He said he's still haunted by the Quarry fight and that no fighters manager will let their fighter take the fight b/c of the lose-lose situation it puts them in. I.E. Win and you beat a 39 year old punch line. Lose and you just got beat by a 39 year old punch line. The losing is the worst part he said, b/c the UFC isn't picking you up w/ a recent loss to Starnes on your resume.

Kalib said that he had actually offered to fight free in Bellator but they said "No thanks." He also said he feels far more comfortable at 205 and that he walks around at 240 so fighting HW's is no big deal. What's more, I also read that Herman had slimmed down to like 235 so Kalib may actually be the heavier man come FN.

Lastly, Kalib did recently defeat Tim Hague who is a big HW himself; so it's not as if he's going into this blindly. I actually think Kalib wins this fight. Herman has cardio for one round and he's done. I wouldn't bet a lot b/c Dave does have he potential to out wrestle Kalib, but I think he gasses as usual and mentally breaks in r2.

Im so pissed. 5dimes had Robinson at +235 and I played him. I check the sherdog card and now he's off the card? What the hell is going on here. The matchups on 5dimes don't match the card on Titanfc website OR sherdog.
 
Even if Bookmaker's live betting is not as good as before, their system is still better than anyone else's. So I don't really see how it could not be worth it. Especially since using 5Dimes and Bookmaker's live betting are not mutually exclusive.

Alright, I'll keep that in mind.

I think I'll use bookmaker for live betting and 5dimes for mostly props and parlays.
 
I see some of you guys on King Mo. Am I missing something here? Rampage is coming off a two KO wins. His last three fights before that (losses) were Texeira, Bader and Jones. King Mo did not impress me in his last fight and no need to compare the level of competition. Are you guys expecting Mo to hold him down for three rounds?
 
I see some of you guys on King Mo. Am I missing something here? Rampage is coming off a two KO wins. His last three fights before that (losses) were Texeira, Bader and Jones. King Mo did not impress me in his last fight and no need to compare the level of competition. Are you guys expecting Mo to hold him down for three rounds?

At this point all Rampage does is stalk his opponent and look to throw big hooks. He barely throws any jabs or kicks. I think Mo could win an ugly striking match with some clinch work and maybe a takedown or two.
 
Did any of you guys in the States just feel that large boom? Reports of it from SC to NY & police/news reporting meteor entering atmosphere. Sumabitch shook my house like a bomb.
 
At this point all Rampage does is stalk his opponent and look to throw big hooks. He barely throws any jabs or kicks. I think Mo could win an ugly striking match with some clinch work and maybe a takedown or two.

No way Mo wins any type of striking match with Page. Mo got outstuck by Zayats and Newton twice, he also had enough trouble getting Zayats to the ground and could barely keep him there when he did, Page is way bigger and stronger than Zayats. Even Jones had trouble taking Rampage down, Rampage is a bad matchup for Mo, he's bigger, probably stronger, has a wrestling background and good TDD and a way better striker with way more power.
 
I see some of you guys on King Mo. Am I missing something here? Rampage is coming off a two KO wins. His last three fights before that (losses) were Texeira, Bader and Jones. King Mo did not impress me in his last fight and no need to compare the level of competition. Are you guys expecting Mo to hold him down for three rounds?

I'm on Mo & I think we're getting a gift here and I'll explain why:

Indeed, Rampage did look "good" in his last fight, and he knocked out his prior two opponents, but look who he was fighting ffs, Joey Beltran and Christian M'Pumbu. First off, M'Pumbu is just a very very low level fighter; one who has no business competing as a LHW to begin with, and had just lost back-to-back fights vs. Travis Wiuff & Attila Vegh. Additionally, Beltran had accepted the fight on extremely short notice. What's more, Beltran was putting Quinton through the paces before ultimately giving Rampage the separation he needed to let his hands go and get put to sleep.

Alternatively, King Mo looked a bit worse in his fights, but he faced Emmanuel Newton, a fighter who is far better than either of the two fighters Rampage faced. While Mo is 0-2 vs. "The Hardcore Kid", we have to put the losses in their proper perspective. Taking nothing away from Newton, Mo was was starched in their first foray by-and-large because he was overconfident and kept his hands down never anticipating the spinning technique. Then, in their ensuing matchup, Mo & Newton engaged in a back and forth affair that could have went either way; regardless, Mo fought a much better fight against quite possibly the most underrated fighter in all of MMA. When Newton is "on", he is a top 10 LHW by all standards, and at this point of his career, I think Newton would defeat Rampage cleaner than he did vs. Mo.

Now, aside from Newton, we've saw Mo run through Petruzzelli, Noe, and just over two months ago he defeated a very game Zayats 30-27 on all cards. So, while Mo hasn't looked as good in Bellator as he did in Strikeforce, and Rampage has looked better than Mo thus far in Bellator, I think we have to judge their performance based on individual merits and not in a vacuum. That is to say, we have to do more than just look at FightFinder or Wiki cap this fight. Instead, we need to plug in the variables and judge them accordingly, variables such as quality of competition and lastly how the two matchup with one another.

Styles make fights, and I think Mo's wrestling will be the difference here. Early on Beltran was having the same success that Bader had by implementing the same gameplan more or less; this consisted of making it a dirty fight and using a log of clinch work up against the gage. Let's be real, Mo is 10 x the wrestler of both men and has the requisite toolkit to follow the same blueprint to success.

However, most importantly, we have to look at the odds; this fight is not being contested at even odds, but instead we're getting Mo as a 2:1 dog. Now, based on everything we know about the two men, if Mo isn't a livedog I don't know who is.
 
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Agree with everything you said MMAGF. At better than 2-1 odds, you have to place money on Mo here. Not to mention Rampages camp is pretty awful in comparison to Mo's new camp at ATT. I saw some footage on the Spike hype show they did about an hour ago. It showcased rampage counter wrestling some bum and then intently listening to Mayhem Miller explain how he shouldn't post his hand on the mat. LOLWUT.

Meanwhile, Mo is working on his striking with his boxing coach and he looks to be in tremendous shape. Mo is surrounded by some pretty great training partners that are pushing him to his limits. My biggest thing however, is that both these guys have talked so much shit to each other that neither wants to get KTFO. I believe Mo will play it relatively safe, fight smart, and earn a hard fought decision. I got Mo by decision at +368 and straight in some parlays. I cant justify laying the juice on a fighter who is knocking out bums who look intimidated being in the same cage as Rampage
 
At this point all Rampage does is stalk his opponent and look to throw big hooks. He barely throws any jabs or kicks. I think Mo could win an ugly striking match with some clinch work and maybe a takedown or two.

well put, that's why i laid 1u on mo (some of which via the +368 decision line)

(goodfella broke it down nicely, too, but degen's is more concise and matches how i feel)
 
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Honestly, I might take a stab at Brock Jardine @ +125 & Alvin Robinson +235 Oh, and I love Harris at hose odds; DJ is terrible. If Walt weren't so flawed and Guillard-esque in his approach, I'd go heavy, but this whole card screams "Go small".

I do like Starnes too, and to answer your question on why he's at HW fighting Herman, it is b/c he can't get any reputable fights a 205 despite winning 4 in a row. He said he's still haunted by the Quarry fight and that no fighters manager will let their fighter take the fight b/c of the lose-lose situation it puts them in. I.E. Win and you beat a 39 year old punch line. Lose and you just got beat by a 39 year old punch line. The losing is the worst part he said, b/c the UFC isn't picking you up w/ a recent loss to Starnes on your resume.

Kalib said that he had actually offered to fight free in Bellator but they said "No thanks." He also said he feels far more comfortable at 205 and that he walks around at 240 so fighting HW's is no big deal. What's more, I also read that Herman had slimmed down to like 235 so Kalib may actually be the heavier man come FN.

Lastly, Kalib did recently defeat Tim Hague who is a big HW himself; so it's not as if he's going into this blindly. I actually think Kalib wins this fight. Herman has cardio for one round and he's done. I wouldn't bet a lot b/c Dave does have he potential to out wrestle Kalib, but I think he gasses as usual and mentally breaks in r2.

good call on kalib not being able to get fights. i didn't realize it was that bad, man, poor bastard

and yea i forgot to mention that he fought hague, obviously he's fought HW before.. i believe him that 205 is more comfortable than 185 for him now, but i also think he just doesn't want to put the work in to get down to 185.. he's old!

not feeling the jardine one, but man, just no idea how to really feel about the fight. roberts has been out since last year & can be so passive at times on the feet.. jardine MIGHT be able to keep it standing, but it's not like he's that good on the feet.. just a pass for me i think

I saw Roberts' last fight against Baesman, it was on that free MMA card that Nick Diaz held. Roberts looked terrible and didn't have enough gas for 2 full rounds. Even with the gas, he didn't show anything that Baesman had to be worried about.

scary. baesman isn't a worldbeater. definitely passing on roberts. jardine or pass. (pass for me)
 
For example, Fabio Maldonado is +420. So the books are suggesting he wins this fight what percent of the time?

I echo this, still not sure how to calculate implied odds. :icon_conf

Pedantic math example:
To convert American odds on an underdog:

The formula if you're interested is: 100/(x+100)

100/520 is going to be the probability in this case. 19.23% or close to 1/5 as you can see from the fraction.

For a favorite:

Take the reverse, -420.

The formula is going to be x/(x+100).

In this case: 420/520.

That would equal out to 80.77% (you could also take the +420 result and simply subtract it from 100% for the reverse, but that's extra work).

Hope this is possibly what you were looking for.

obviously scythe gave you a good breakdown, but here's a quick way you can do the implied % for +odds things, especially big dogs.

take the first # and then add 1 to it. it's that simple. (assuming it's less than +1000).

so if it's +200, take the "2" and add 1. 2 + 1 = 3. that means 3 is your denominator. so if a +200 guy wins 1/3 times, you break even. so if you cap a fighter at 33% to win (aka winning 1/3 the time)... anything above +200 is good. anything below +200 is bad.

example 2:

fabio is +420. so what do we do? take the first #. 4. add 1. 4+1 = 5. so can fabio win 1/5 times? if you think so, anything over that +400 is good value. anything below is bad value.

if you think he wins 1/3 times, you are getting incredible value. if you think he wins maybe 1/8 times, you're getting terrible value (you'd need +700, cause 7 + 1 = 8)

hope that helps.
 
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