I will say it right now! Tom Aspinall has a punchers chance and his window of winning the fight closes in the first round heck not even first round but first minutes of first round where he has his explosiveness. Jon Jones is to smart to get caught by a one shoot he has fought gazilions of guys with one punch KO power etc etc.
The Amount of arsenal Jon Jones has is to great for Aspinall. Heck I won´t even be surprised if Jones finishes him in the first round.
Jones knows that Aspinall is same level as Ciryl Gane and past first round he is done. Tom Aspinall has never taken any of the shoots Jones is gonna throw at him and fighting chinny slow HWs is nothing compared to Jon Jones which is completely different world of difference. Throwing some haymakers at random heavyweights who have no IQ is nothing comparable to sharing an octagon with Jon Jones.
I don´t think Aspinall is ready because he has never seen adversary in his career aside from his knee injury and fight was stopped. Jon is intelligent, fast and lethal. He is experienced and has been thru wars and extremely elusive this will frustrate Aspinall from first few mins when he realize holyshxt this guy is elusive and he is hitting me everytime with something big. This will be the beginning of the end Aspinall will feel like a fish out of water..
Lets take a look at each of their strengths and weaknesses and how they fight.
Grappling
Jones has better wrestling and arguably better grappling overall but Tom is no slouch on the ground so he could likely negate most of Jones attackes. Especially in terms of submissions
Striking
This is where it's most interesting. Tom has legit 1 shot KO power in his hands, speed, combos, footwork and much better overall boxing. Jones is better in terms of kicks, especially body kicks. Jones has good knees but we haven't seen it in a while since it's good mostly against much smaller opponents. His elbows are good too. On the ground and his spinning elbow is good when he sets it up with td faints.
Getting hit by a heavy hitter at HW leads to getting KOed no matter how skilled you are everywhere so I give an edge to Tom here since guarding against punches in HW mma is hard especially when the guy is fast and crisp and for Jones the reach advantage is not as great as it was at LHW. Jones got tagged many times by Gus, Santos and Reyes but none of them hit as hard as Tom. Stipe was old, slow and not as mobile as his younger days so IMO its not a good measure. Gane is fast and mobile but he doesn't hit as hard as Tom and he has little tdd and no sub defense. Jones could mess upnToms knees with oblique kicks but that dangerous at HW since again the reach isn't there and Tom could counter with. Ko punch
Takedowns/transitions
Jones has the clear advantage here and most likely this is how he wins. I could easily see Jones getting takedowns at some point each round as long as Tom doesn't land a heavy punch first. If Jon can get takedowns I dont see him submitting Tom but I could see him riding out top control and tiring Tom out along with landing gnp, eventually getting a tko in champ rounds.
Jon clearly has more tools to win but it will be the toughest test since Tom has an attribute combo that none of Jon's opponents have had. Size, strength, reach, youth, good striking and good grappling. All the most skilled fighters Jon faced were probably more skilled than Tom but they were all much smaller, weaker a didn't hit as hard.
We missed out on even tougher HW matchups for Jon but this one at least is the most interesting one available. Moreso than Ngannou