How big of a chance do you give Blaydes against Aspinall?

TheWizard

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There doesn't seem to be a lot of discussion surrounding this fight, maybe because people think it's a foregone conclusion that Aspinall wins?

Aspinall is the deserved favourite. Very fast starter, dangerous finisher and Blaydes has been knocked out a couple of times, but I think Blaydes has a real chance if he can get Aspinall down early and extend the fight into the second round. Let's see what Aspinall's TDD and cardio is like.

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20%.

Blaydes is powerful on the feet but lacks technique. Blaydes is a great wrestler but has terrible entries. And he's terrible at mixing things up.

We haven't seen much of Tommys anti grappling and cardio though. Interesting fight.
 
I see here that Blaydes already has a TKO win over Aspinall, so surely he can do it again. 100%.

Did you even do your research TS?

But really like 25%.
 
As good a chance as anybody imo.

I've said for years that Blaydes is the worst matchup for Aspinall in the division. Since before their first fight.

He's a good striker, that can match Aspinall's size, and while he isn't as fast, he's one of the faster guys at HW, especially as one of the larger guys in the division.

And then there's the wrestling. Aspinall's takedown defense is untested against a high level wrestler. He was taken down over and over by Stewart Austin early in his career, but that was with judo. He was very aggressive coming in and Austin was able to throw or trip him every time. He clearly figured that out though because Spivac who's a good judo guy couldn't do anything even after he got a hold of Aspinall. Against a wrestler though, it's an unknown.

Where I do think Aspinall has an advantage is fight IQ. Aspinall does the right things in the right moment, and seems to thrive under the pressure. Blaydes regularly brain farts and throws winnable fights away by doing the wrong things.

I do think Aspinall is the better fighter and I do expect him to beat Blaydes, but Curtis winning this fight wouldn't be a shock or even a huge upset to me.
 
Tom is best HW on the roster and has been for some time now, but Curtis is a bad matchup flr him. Wouldn't be surprised if we actually see Tom tested or defeated tbh. Don't think any other HW on the roster has Tom's killer instinct though, so Curtis could be ended at any moment.
 
Very good chance, good wrestling, good control and his striking is decent. He has more experience in UFC than Tom and has fought more top guys. Tom is a lot more dynamic in the striking and is faster.

I feel like we've never seen Blaydes get beaten up, he just loses by these 1 punch KOs out of nowhere. Which of course can happen again. I feel like because of his style that you can't dominate for 5 rounds against a guy like Blaydes.. its more if you can catch him with a big punch that he never saw coming.
 
I'm looking forward to Blaydes wrestling the heck out of Aspinall, so we'll get to hear how "Aspinall was never good" and "the holes in his game were obvious to anyone actually paying attention" and the like.

Blaydes doesn't mix it up well. Aspinall will be one step ahead of his takedown entries. Too fast and too sharp. It will look like the Pavlovich fight.
 
As good a chance as anybody imo.

I've said for years that Blaydes is the worst matchup for Aspinall in the division. Since before their first fight.

He's a good striker, that can match Aspinall's size, and while he isn't as fast, he's one of the faster guys at HW, especially as one of the larger guys in the division.

And then there's the wrestling. Aspinall's takedown defense is untested against a high level wrestler. He was taken down over and over by Stewart Austin early in his career, but that was with judo. He was very aggressive coming in and Austin was able to throw or trip him every time. He clearly figured that out though because Spivac who's a good judo guy couldn't do anything even after he got a hold of Aspinall. Against a wrestler though, it's an unknown.

Where I do think Aspinall has an advantage is fight IQ. Aspinall does the right things in the right moment, and seems to thrive under the pressure. Blaydes regularly brain farts and throws winnable fights away by doing the wrong things.

I do think Aspinall is the better fighter and I do expect him to beat Blaydes, but Curtis winning this fight wouldn't be a shock or even a huge upset to me.

In fairness, Spivac took that fight on short notice and I don’t think he was ready for Tom. I’ve got Blaydes in the rematch so long as he doesn’t mentally check out like he normally does in big fights.
 
Personally, I've always thought Blaydes was Aspinall's toughest fight in the division. His combination of wrestling and punching power create real problems.
 
This is a tough fight, Blaydes is experienced and dangerous but I feel like if Tom approaches this fight with the intention of making a statement, he's gonna put Blaydes out in the 1st via hands. Still I would not be completely shocked if Blaydes pulls out a W. Jones is gonna sit back eating popcorn and say a prayer to whatever shitty god he prays to that he doesn't have to fight either of them, then a dumb tweet about how they're not on his level will follow the fight, just like clockwork.
 
Blaydes always chokes in title eliminator fights, 0%
Unless Blaydes has some serious mental conditioning for this fight, he'll just blow it like he always does. Guy is a world class choke artist in these big fights. And Aspinall seems to rise to the occasion. Betting odds should still way favor Aspinall based on their last few outings.

Blaydes winning would be a huge upset. But at the same time it's heavyweight. Guy just needs to hit Aspinall once or twice standing or ground and pound and it's over. Aspinall also likely doesn't have the same five round cardio and experience like Blaydes does as well which is another path to victory.
 
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