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Establishment candidates don't like to look like losers, unlike more ideological candidates such as Ralph Nader or Ron Paul, guys who will run just to disseminate their ideas.
If Christie and Kasich don't put on a decent showing in either Iowa or New Hampshire, they're gone.
If either Jeb or Rubio look set to lose big in their home state of Florida, they'll bow out before it happens. (The last Florida poll I saw had Rubio in fourth place behind Trump, Jeb, and Carson.)
This happens every election. It's not like I'm saying something new or exciting. This is what happens in every election.
The candidates polling in the 0-5% range will certainly bail before long.
And a candidate who's about to or does get an embarrassing whipping may bail.
But that doesn't exhaust the set of possible outcomes. What if Jeb and Rubio run neck and neck in FL? You think one of them would pack their whole campaign in over a 2 pt loss - especially to someone who's also from that same state?
As long as the guy at the top doesn't start running away with everything, if you have 3-6 guys running relatively close, getting any to quit early may not happen.
And this election already has significant wrinkles that make it notably different from past experiences:
- The enormity of the field
- The frontrunner in one party being an outsider with positions that don't neatly fit the party platform
- The frontrunner the the other party being a woman
- The steady build of anti-Establishment sentiment, which may finally be ready to boil over
- A major 'legacy family' candidate running in each party