donald trump is surging

[VulcanNervPinch]

Establishment candidates don't like to look like losers, unlike more ideological candidates such as Ralph Nader or Ron Paul, guys who will run just to disseminate their ideas.

If Christie and Kasich don't put on a decent showing in either Iowa or New Hampshire, they're gone.

If either Jeb or Rubio look set to lose big in their home state of Florida, they'll bow out before it happens. (The last Florida poll I saw had Rubio in fourth place behind Trump, Jeb, and Carson.)

This happens every election. It's not like I'm saying something new or exciting. This is what happens in every election.

The candidates polling in the 0-5% range will certainly bail before long.
And a candidate who's about to or does get an embarrassing whipping may bail.

But that doesn't exhaust the set of possible outcomes. What if Jeb and Rubio run neck and neck in FL? You think one of them would pack their whole campaign in over a 2 pt loss - especially to someone who's also from that same state?
As long as the guy at the top doesn't start running away with everything, if you have 3-6 guys running relatively close, getting any to quit early may not happen.

And this election already has significant wrinkles that make it notably different from past experiences:

• The enormity of the field
• The frontrunner in one party being an outsider with positions that don't neatly fit the party platform
• The frontrunner the the other party being a woman
• The steady build of anti-Establishment sentiment, which may finally be ready to boil over
• A major 'legacy family' candidate running in each party

 

[Jack V Savage]

And in the end if he gets the nomination i dont see any current dem beating him. Certainly not 100yr old socialist Bernie. And hilary is losing ground daily

There's no way he's getting the nomination, but if he did, yeah, even Sanders would beat him, though he's not getting the nomination either.

 

[Culombo]

He will pull out soon when he starts to make himself look even more ridiculous by being out of his depth.

reading this post made me think we were back in june again .. have you not been watching what's been going on ? short of saying he kills babies, he won't make himself look any more ridiculous or crazy .. it's clear people are buying into whatever he's saying(or how he's saying it) .. his brash, nonpc, unapologetic approach is rubbing people the right way from the looks of it .. but I'm anxious to see how this translates to those first primaries at the beginning of the year

 

[Culombo]

2.9 billion, not 10. Considering he started by taking over his father's multimiliondollar enterprise in 1972, that means he has probably done considerable worse than the market average. Him being a "resounding success" in buisness is definitely debatable.

http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2015-07-28/here-s-our-tally-of-donald-trump-s-wealth

He's a resounding success when it comes to branding, though.

I see different figures .. another says 4 .. who knows but the guy obviously knows his way around business .. he is a billionaire so yes a resounding success .. to me anyways .. to just about anyone other than his peers .. what is a resounding success to you ?

 

[cooks1]

the things he does that people think will ruin him, just makes people like him more. for example telling that whiny bitch who was angry that he said "anchor baby" to go stuff it was gold. people are getting tired of the pc police telling them what to say and do. if he gets the nomination, it would be funny to watch the left lose their shit when he doesnt give a damn about what they say.

and you guys keep laughing and saying you hope he gets nominated, be careful what you wish for. hillary proves every day more and more how horrible of a candidate she is.

that said, trump isnt my choice as president, but i certainly enjoy watching him do his thing

How can you moppets lets yourself get sucked in like this. AGAIN. Trump is in this for publicity and attention. He has no intention of being president, or even running in the primary.

I will gladly make a sig bet with you that he pulls out before the Iowa caucus.

 

[Diamond Jim]

Trump is smart in seeing the media craves ratings and he brings that. He is on almost all the Sunday shows every Sunday and on a prime time cable news program almost nightly. They are flooding his message on every channel daily and then act shocked he is number one in the polls.

 

[lapollarecords]

Lets make Germany GREAT!!!
The french are screwing us
The jews are laughing at us
The Russians think we are dumb
Everyone thinks we are a joke

LETS MAKE GERMANY GREAAAAAT

 

[2GunTommy]

Building a wall along the border is so unreasonable. The border isn't just flat land going from the pacific to the gulf. People have houses right on the border. you aren't going to stop illegal immigration. You just can't stop it. They tried an experiment in Alabama and that shit failed. U.S. Citizens couldn't harvest the crops like Mexicans. Most quit and the ones that tried to stick it out couldn't get the job done.

Then you have big corporations that recruit Mexicans, they hire smugglers to bring them illegal immigrants, smuggle them in, house them and work them. Some places won't hire US citizens at all. They don't under pay these guys either, but they don't have to pay all the benefits that U.S. Citizens demand. And U.S. Citizens don't work as hard. There are so many complexities to the illegal immigration debate it's stupid to spew out bullshit, like build a wall, hire more border patrol agents, that shit is stupid and it's not so simple.

Yeah i guess we could never figure out how to build a wall on ground that isnt perfectly flat. We just dont have that kind of advanced technology yet. And anyone living on the border would want the wall more than anyone else. That wall will be better than getting killed by illegals coming over. As far as harvesting crops ? Well why couldnt LEGAL immigrants do that ? They come here for jobs and a better way of life right ? Worker programs would give us all the labor we ever need. Legally. Corporations couldnt hire illegals anymore when the border is secuered. Problem solved. Its not hard to secure the border, you just need a govt that actually WANTS to do it.

 

[ProBoxingInsidr]

How can you moppets lets yourself get sucked in like this. AGAIN. Trump is in this for publicity and attention. He has no intention of being president, or even running in the primary.

I will gladly make a sig bet with you that he pulls out before the Iowa caucus.

did you miss the part where i said he wasnt my choice? i dont think he is going to win. i disagree with you on one point. IF he manages to maintain a lead, he isnt going anywhere. once he drops in the polls and sees the writing on the walls, he would bail for sure. my point was just that i enjoy watching him piss off the left. guy doesnt cave to anything you try to push on him. he tells you to go fuck yourself when he does. it just makes him more popular. i will just enjoy the ride while it lasts.

 

[WalkenWouldOwn]

How can you moppets lets yourself get sucked in like this. AGAIN. Trump is in this for publicity and attention. He has no intention of being president, or even running in the primary.

I will gladly make a sig bet with you that he pulls out before the Iowa caucus.

This. The thread about the gullible right wing rings truer with every pro trump post.

He's a businessman! No more PC politicians! Build a wall!

Hook, line, and sinker.

 

[2GunTommy]

Trump seems to be a "Republican" in that he is running against (eventually) the Democrats, and apparently that's all there really is to it. Pretty nearly every issue I've seen, heard or read the Republicans fighting about for the last decade, he's completely silent on, and that may well be a good thing, for the party to move past attempting to block same sex marriage, re-instituting prayer in school, slowly eroding access to abortion, ect.

Unfortunately, Trump seems to represent moving past that to...nothing. He really could just run as an independent and be the first member of the Trump Party of America, but just by throwing his hat in the "Republican" circle he get's so much of the anti-democrat support.

I believe thats why he has a great chance of being president. He has left behind the several issues that have become "shackles" to the republican party. And I dont agree hes running on "nothing" He keeps his base with issues like immigration,trade deals,veterans benefits,middle east, and avoids offending the left with issues like abortion and gay marriage. Hes more centered than any candidate from either party.

There's no way he's getting the nomination, but if he did, yeah, even Sanders would beat him, though he's not getting the nomination either.

We can only speculate, but all things point to him getting the nomination at this point. The other candidates offer nothing new at all. More of the same far right outdated issues that many are tired of hearing. Just look at Jeb. His attack on Trump is that he isnt a TRUE conservative. Jeb isnt realizing thats what people like about him. He isnt just falling in line among the ranks.
As far as beating the dems, well i think that will be easier than beating the repubs. Hilary ? She will be too busy dodging the FBI in coming days to win anything. Ill be surprised if she stays in it. Bernie ? No way a 90yr old self proclaimed socialist could ever win. The guy will be in a retirement home before his first term is over. Biden ? The man is a caricature of himself. No chance.

 

[Jack V Savage]

We can only speculate, but all things point to him getting the nomination at this point.

We can actually make educated guesses, and, no all things do not point to him getting the nomination. If we look at betting markets, Bush is the favorite, and Trump is getting about 20% odds (IMO, that greatly overstates his actual chances).

The other candidates offer nothing new at all. More of the same far right outdated issues that many are tired of hearing. Just look at Jeb. His attack on Trump is that he isnt a TRUE conservative. Jeb isnt realizing thats what people like about him. He isnt just falling in line among the ranks.

A lot of Republican voters aren't really about ideology. It's just identity politics. But donors and some other voters are more concerned with upward redistribution. Bush and other candidates can play both sides.

As far as beating the dems, well i think that will be easier than beating the repubs. Hilary ? She will be too busy dodging the FBI in coming days to win anything. Ill be surprised if she stays in it. Bernie ? No way a 90yr old self proclaimed socialist could ever win. The guy will be in a retirement home before his first term is over. Biden ? The man is a caricature of himself. No chance.

You'll see.

 

[Tekk]

This. The thread about the gullible right wing rings truer with every pro trump post.

He's a businessman! No more PC politicians! Build a wall!

Hook, line, and sinker.

Bro, he's going to build a wall and make Mexico pay for it. How? I really don't know , but he's a businessman so.......yeah.

He's going to make military HUGE, because thanks to Obama it's like weak and stuff. Ps my guy in Hawaii says his birth certificate isn't there.

He's going to repeal and replace Obama are with something because he's not PC as tells it like it is..

 

[kahiljabroni]

How is Trump a 'successful businessman' if hes declared bankruptcy 4X?

Fyi there's a difference between going personally bankrupt and one of your MANY companies going bankrupt. Trump has never gone bankrupt personally.

 

[2GunTommy]

We can actually make educated guesses, and, no all things do not point to him getting the nomination. If we look at betting markets, Bush is the favorite, and Trump is getting about 20% odds (IMO, that greatly overstates his actual chances).



A lot of Republican voters aren't really about ideology. It's just identity politics. But donors and some other voters are more concerned with upward redistribution. Bush and other candidates can play both sides.



You'll see.

Trump is ahead in most if not all polls right now. So i think you can make an "educated guess" that he very well could win the nomination without reaching. It certainly isnt an unreasonable assumption.

Saying that most Republicans are more about identity politics rather than ideology just sounds like a partisan jab.

 

[SouthoftheAndes]

We already have like 800 miles of fencing. Building the remaining sections isnt impossible nor is deportations. Building the remaining fence is easier though and less messy than deportations.

With that said I like Trump more than the other Republicans. A Trump presidency would hardly be a destructive one. Trump isn't a radical who wants to ban gay marriage, destroy social security, make abortion illegal, etc. We'd be worse off if ideology driven radicals like Cruz, Paul, or Walker were elected.

 

[Cold Front]

The candidates polling in the 0-5% range will certainly bail before long.
And a candidate who's about to or does get an embarrassing whipping may bail.

But that doesn't exhaust the set of possible outcomes. What if Jeb and Rubio run neck and neck in FL? You think one of them would pack their whole campaign in over a 2 pt loss - especially to someone who's also from that same state?
As long as the guy at the top doesn't start running away with everything, if you have 3-6 guys running relatively close, getting any to quit early may not happen.

And this election already has significant wrinkles that make it notably different from past experiences:

• The enormity of the field
• The frontrunner in one party being an outsider with positions that don't neatly fit the party platform
• The frontrunner the the other party being a woman
• The steady build of anti-Establishment sentiment, which may finally be ready to boil over
• A major 'legacy family' candidate running in each party

I agree we could have three to six candidates still running in April, but I doubt more than one or two of them will be establishment candidates.

If the candidates still around are Jeb, Cruz, Trump, and Carson, for example, then Jeb will be in great shape. He'll be the only establishment candidate left standing and the establishment vote will gravitate to him.

The nightmare for the GOP establishment will happen only if a couple of establishment candidates trade victories in the early states through the first two months, with neither candidate being able to claim a decisive victory. I'm not talking just Iowa and New Hampshire, which frequently vote for different candidates. I'm talking about through the twenty states which will vote in March.

 

[kahiljabroni]

How can you moppets lets yourself get sucked in like this. AGAIN. Trump is in this for publicity and attention. He has no intention of being president, or even running in the primary.

I will gladly make a sig bet with you that he pulls out before the Iowa caucus.

I hear this alot and it makes no sense. The dude has lost a considerable amount of money since he announced. Univision bailed. Macy's bailed. Nbc cut ties with him. After the things he has said he can never return to his old life...many companies wont touch him with a ten foot pole.

Not too mention the money he is spending and the effort he is putting forth traveling to appearances and doing media. The campaign trail is a grind...and the dude is almost 70.

He may be in it for his ego, but he's still in it to win it.

 

[Dalarna3]

I just wonder what Trump would actually be like as president. He's had leftist opinions in the past and I have to wonder how much of this is just a populist act.

 

[ultramanhyata]

I just wonder what Trump would actually be like as president. He's had leftist opinions in the past and I have to wonder how much of this is just a populist act.

Yes. There are even some here in the WR who are donning (pun intended) the rose-colored populist glasses with this guy.

Before he went on the record with the following I had predicted in another thread that it would, indeed, be his position on worker pay.

http://www.businessinsider.com/trump-having-a-low-minimum-wage-is-not-a-bad-thing-2015-8

"Having a low minimum wage is not a bad thing for this country," Trump said.

"We can't have a situation where our labor is so much more expensive than other countries' that we can no longer win."

I know it's shocking. But this billionaire republican is pro-low wages. And income inequality business as usual.

American Exceptionalism involves a desire and drive on the part of American workers to go head to head with Chinese peasants in the race for jobs. Or have American working people just become complacent? Do they not want to "win" anymore?? It is The Donald's duty to awaken and rally them.