DDP before JJ vs Gane analysis;

[Tweak896]

Just because some people here created a narrative doesn't make it an accurate one. The absolute facts are that Gane DID get dominated by Ngannou on the mat when that wasn't Ngannou's game. He DID get outgrappled by Volkov. These aren't narratives, they happened. As did Tom dominating and subbing that very same Volkov. So this isn't conjecture-Aspinall clearly has shown he's levels above Gane with his grappling. Enough to thwart Jones? We don't know but we DO know he's in a different league than Gane so the narrative that it's gonna look like the Gane fight is actually the one that seems ridiculous.

There's a possibility Aspinall's defensive wrestling is even worse than Gane, all I can tell you is it's factually less tested. It's an unknown. Could be like Cro Cop or could be the easiest fight Jones has ever had. Aspinall's BJJ is above Gane for sure, we know that. I don't see Aspinall on a Werdum/Mir level that he's subbing Jones off his back, no one at HW is that good right now. Stipe and Gane were taken down by Jones, so we know he's been able to get every HW he's faced down. Hope we get the fight and see what happens.

 

[mkess101]

There's a possibility Aspinall's defensive wrestling is even worse than Gane, all I can tell you is it's factually less tested. It's an unknown. Could be like Cro Cop or could be the easiest fight Jones has ever had. Aspinall's BJJ is above Gane for sure, we know that. I don't see Aspinall on a Werdum/Mir level that he's subbing Jones off his back, no one at HW is that good right now. Stipe and Gane were taken down by Jones, so we know he's been able to get every HW he's faced down. Hope we get the fight and see what happens.

I'm not sure it could be worse than Gane given what I just saw the striker Volkov do to Gane...but I do agree that it's at least mostly untested. And no I don't think he's Werdum off his back if he is taken down. I do think he's eons better than Gane overall with his grappling, and likely worlds better than Stipe off his back.

The question isn't "Is Aspinall an absolutely elite grappler" because my honest answer would be "probably not". The question to me is "Given his other physical advantages (younger, faster, bigger, more explosive), is Aspinall's grappling at least good enough to survive that world (be it via TDD, getups, threatening with subs to allow him to scramble up, etc) and have the fight mainly where he wants it?" And to that my answer would be "Probably", given what Jones looked like to me in his last fight.

No guarantees obviously. Just how I see it.

 

[Tweak896]

I'm not sure it could be worse than Gane given what I just saw the striker Volkov do to Gane...but I do agree that it's at least mostly untested. And no I don't think he's Werdum off his back if he is taken down. I do think he's eons better than Gane overall with his grappling, and likely worlds better than Stipe off his back.

The question isn't "Is Aspinall an absolutely elite grappler" because my honest answer would be "probably not". The question to me is "Given his other physical advantages (younger, faster, bigger, more explosive), is Aspinall's grappling at least good enough to survive that world (be it via TDD, getups, threatening with subs to allow him to scramble up, etc) and have the fight mainly where he wants it?" And to that my answer would be "Probably", given what Jones looked like to me in his last fight.

No guarantees obviously. Just how I see it.

I mean to be fair Gane was super injured in that fight he should've lost against Volkov and still was 50/50 in grappling with him if you look at control time. So it's not as one sided as you're making it sound. I think Gane lost, but it was close enough to convince 3 idiot judges. Gane isn't as bad as people say he is on the ground.

Either way, my whole point is Aspinall is an unknown. We have no idea. I thought Jones showed a huge variety of offense that Aspinall has never dealt with in his whole career. That's what makes this fight so great is it sort of sorts it out for both guys. Whether Jones wins or not, he's likely not staying and Aspinall's going to be champ either way. I'm sick of the delay and I'm at the point where I think they need to strip Jones if he doesn't sign. If Jones declines, then Almeida will show us Aspinall's defensive grappling anyways.

 

[mkess101]

I mean to be fair Gane was super injured in that fight he should've lost against Volkov and still was 50/50 in grappling with him if you look at control time. So it's not as one sided as you're making it sound. I think Gane lost, but it was close enough to convince 3 idiot judges. Gane isn't as bad as people say he is on the ground.

Either way, my whole point is Aspinall is an unknown. We have no idea. I thought Jones showed a huge variety of offense that Aspinall has never dealt with in his whole career. That's what makes this fight so great is it sort of sorts it out for both guys. Whether Jones wins or not, he's likely not staying and Aspinall's going to be champ either way. I'm sick of the delay and I'm at the point where I think they need to strip Jones if he doesn't sign. If Jones declines, then Almeida will show us Aspinall's defensive grappling anyways.

Totally fair about Gane's injury...just hard to take it into account because almost everyone seems to be fighting hurt most of the time. Some are worse than others of course, maybe Gane's really did affect things that much but...? And the main point to me was more the totality. Okay Gane was hurt. Well, he was also thoroughly outgrappled by an injured striker in Ngannou previously. So it's not like that was a one-off. Is Gane utter trash on the mat, to where he's gonna lose to any regional bum HW wrestler? No, of course not. Is he pretty pedestrian as far as top ranked HW's go? Sure seems that way.

But yeah Jones just needs to decide one way or the other.

 

[Alpha_T83]

It's entirely possible that Jon Jones beats Tom Aspinall and makes it look easy.

Most of us that want to see this fight have ever denied this point. But the fact that Jon Jones COULD beat Tom Aspinall doesn't give him the right to duck him and duck unifying the heavyweight titles.