% Chance of Dustin hitting a gilly on Islam

[svmr_db]

Dustin will probably jump a gilly with 5 seconds left in the round just for laughs lol

 

[sonhow]

About as much as Dustin hitting imanari roll heel hook on him

 

[Steve Fox]

I think he’ll definitely go for it but it’s not gonna work

This.

 

[jsbx45]

About 0. Negative 0.

 

[Joinho10]

Islam uses single legs a ton. The double leg he uses far less often but we saw him make midfight adjustments and time a couple slick double legs on Volk that caught the Aussie completely off guard. Regardless, I don't think he's at all concerned with Poiriers Guillotine, probably a lot more concerned with being able to avoid exchanging in boxing range at literally all cost.

And his single legs in closed stance matchups is wicked fast

 

[HockeyBjj]

Guy with 0 wins by guillotine submission, beating a highly skilled wrestler with a guillotine?

0%. Don't care how many times he tries. His gilly clearly isn't very good

 

[moosaev]

Islam barely shoots onto the legs really. Uses more clinch trips and throws. Gonna be hard to even get his head in that position unless Dustin hurts him first

Yeah but with the south paw on south paw stance setup Islam is much more likely to go for a single leg.

 

[Qays Stetkevich]

Islam barely shoots onto the legs really. Uses more clinch trips and throws. Gonna be hard to even get his head in that position unless Dustin hurts him first

If DP loses, he loses. I just hope he doesn't rock Islam and then pull the guillotine instead of finishing him on the feet. It would give me flashbacks of Nog v Mir II.

 

[EndlessCritic]

dustin poirier reading this thread right now more motivated than ever to win by guillotine

 

[mkt]

considering he has never won a fight with that submission id say he has less than 1% chance. could happen. but wont.

Especially since it's so predictable and Islam and his coaches know he'll probably try it.

 

[mkt]

Honestly with all the talk about how he keeps failing gillys Islam could underestimate it completely and just leave his neck out there for way too long and get caught.

Reminds me of Shogun vs Chael. I just don't think Shogun respected Chael's BJJ what so ever so he just left his neck out there in the open to be snatched and Chael grabbed it.

It's more likely the opposite. Islam will be fully prepared for it. If Dustin wins by submission (very, very low chance), it will probably be something no one is expecting instead (RNC, leglock, who knows).

 

[AngryWeasel]

After what we've seen on the Justin/Holloway fight if the JBG tune in it's near 100% after a good beatdown

 

[The Clark]

Looks like Dustin by sub is +2000.

 

[AmonTobin]

I’d say there’s a 50% chance he uses it to turn Islam onto the fence but highly unlikely he submits him with it unless he’s got Islam KO’d on the feet first.

 

[jeff7b9]

Clearly he is due.

Its happening.

 

[usernamee]

It's more likely the opposite. Islam will be fully prepared for it.

 

[BJJ4Tone]

What are the statistical chances of Dustin hitting a successful guillotine on Islam?
Guillotines are not some unusual submissions in MMA, and despite many things going in favor of Islam we CANNOT underestimate the potential for a guillotine submission to end the fight.
As they say even a broken clock is right twice a day

Well considering Dustin has never finished a guillotine in his fucking career and Islam is one of the best grapplers we've seen, I would say the chances are not very high.

I don't understand why this "gilly" nonsense has become a thing.

Can't we talk about the things Dustin is ACTUALLY good at?

 

[HHJ]

Can't we talk about the things Dustin is ACTUALLY good at?

No.

 

[Skarsgard]

His guillotine is pretty decent, he just seems to use it to get position more than to actually get the tap. Islam doesn't leave his neck out like Khabib did, but he's also not as durable. I could see Dustin lighting him up and snatching the neck.

 

[Ozze]

Around 13-14% of subs are guillotines. They are second to RNC (around 44%).