% Chance of Dustin hitting a gilly on Islam

Very low. Hitting a submission he’s failed many times for the first time against one of the best grapplers in the game that will have trained for it specifically is extremely unlikely. Maybe if he has him rocked badly before, but can’t see him getting it against an aware Makhachev.
 
0.1% to get a guilotine submission.

Simple predicition. Islam by sub.
 
Gilly... a misspelled slang
<LikeReally5>
for those who can't spell
and
never said by anyone who trained.
 
What are the statistical chances of Dustin hitting a successful guillotine on Islam?
Guillotines are not some unusual submissions in MMA, and despite many things going in favor of Islam we CANNOT underestimate the potential for a guillotine submission to end the fight.
As they say even a broken clock is right twice a day
Very low IMO. Less than 1% chance.


I favour Makhachev to win, but not by as much as some. Maybe 60-40 Makhachev?

Poirier's path to victory is hurting Makhachev with strikes and getting a stoppage. It is very unlikely that he wins by submission, and extremely unlikely that he wins by guillotine.

If he does win by jumping the gilly, I will absolutely lose my shit and I will personally bump this thread to eat my crow.

But there is a very, very low likelihood of that happening.
 
What are the statistical chances of Dustin hitting a successful guillotine on Islam?
Guillotines are not some unusual submissions in MMA, and despite many things going in favor of Islam we CANNOT underestimate the potential for a guillotine submission to end the fight.
As they say even a broken clock is right twice a day
None
 
About the same chance you hitting the lottery.


Go against the grain and put a bet on by sub.
 
Dustin could snatch it if he rocks Islam first
 
Really really smol, under 5% imo

Has a decent chance of catching him with something if Islam decides to stand with him tho
 
The best (perhaps only) chance of it happening is if Poirier rocks Islam so bad, maybe even drops him, and then purposefully goes for the sub instead of easily finishing with strikes, just for shits and giggles.

Khabib would probably lose his fucking mind lol
 
If he tries it Islam will counter with a submission somehow
 
If he were to do it, finally hit it after years of jumping for it with never getting it, along with getting the title he never could get as well. And then retire. It'd be one of the most poetic endings to a career ever. That being said 3-5% chance at best he successfully gets it. At least a 90% chance he jumps for one at some point though. He can't make the same mistake he made against khabib and hesitate the lock in though. That hesitation cost him full guard only getting half guard, which cost him the sub and the position.
 
He made a good attempt against Khabib. If Dustin works on his technique, he could get one.

 
Kleetus says dont be silly, gilly Issy,
 
It’ll be his first one he pulls off! Beat the prop on it too
 
Successful non-zero, attempting near 100%
 
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