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When he losses to Yan he will go back to fighting guys on short notice like Kris Moutinho for another 3-5 fights.I have him as a conteder because he's booked against Yan. If he beats Yan, then he is in the title picture. Otherwise, he probably is still one win from being one win away.
He has only fought two guys on a win streak his entire UFC run. Even Yan is coming off a loss.
Of course if he somehow beat Yan he will be in the title picture, but the only chance he has is it being a 3 round fight and Herb Dean being the ref and letting him get away with fouls.