Would Aspinall have been ranked in the heyday of the UFC HW division?

No, you absolutely made it up. If you came to this conclusion based on posts you saw on sherdog ... well .. Im going to try not to be insulting here but that is fucking stupid.
Whatever man, I can't visit every forum. I specifically checked threads here prior to Pavlovich KO and people don't attribute much besides potential and being young. Specifically his power or speed like is brought up now.
 
Hes got one legitimate loss 10 years ago. I agree he seems reckless at times, but for whatever reason his opponents arent able to capitalize on it.
Tom's only fought two technical strikers in Volkov and Arlovski. They were both among his hardest fights. They were both also the only guys he took down to grapple rather than continue to strike with when he wasn't having his usual success.

His defence is a problem and he's been overcoming it with his physical traits against guys that largely aren't equipped to capitalize on it as they're not technical strikers. But when even someone like Curtis Blaydes is catching you on the very first punch because you leave yourself wide open attempting a flying knee:

giphy.gif


It's a problem that's going to eventually cost him. It's not talked about often enough that you can actually see his knee buckles here from landing weird due Blaydes counters. The ending 10 seconds later, again from getting countered dropping his hands this time throwing leg kicks, likely came from this having already compromised his knee.

His recklessness needs to be tapered down to avoid some of these dumb mistakes.
 
Tom's only fought two technical strikers in Volkov and Arlovski.

Pav is not very technical with his striking but he has a ton of stopping power, good hand speed for a 250+lb HW and Fury/Jon level reach. You'd think if anyone was gonna be able to catch Tom with one big shot it'd be him.

They were both among his hardest fights.

"Hardest" is VERY relative in this case.

His defence is a problem and he's been overcoming it with his physical traits against guys that largely aren't equipped to capitalize on it as they're not technical strikers. But when even someone like Curtis Blaydes is catching you on the very first punch because you leave yourself wide open attempting a flying knee It's a problem that's going to eventually cost him. I

I do agree with this, but Jon lacks the kind of one hitter quitter power to be able to capitalize. He isnt very likely to take Tom out with one big counter, or catch him in a firefight, and so far that seems to be the only real clear route to victory for anyone fighting Tom. Jon might be able to secure a takedown off of some of Toms sloppier moments but who knows what happens from there.

If Tom is still leaning so hard on his athleticism at like 35? he will get caught, often most likely, but hes in his prime now and Jon is not a puncher.
 
Theres no way of knowing either way. He hasnt fought anyone on their level but that also means he hasnt shown his ceiling.

Bear in mind Reem got KTFO by Chuck in his skinny days and also by Bigfoot, Browne and Rothwell not all that long after his K1 days too. its not like he was untouchable standing.

And "prime" Cain barely ever showed up and also got hurt multiple times by Kongo, then ultimately shit the bed hard against a nearly 40 year old Werdum, so again, great as he was, its not like he was always perfect either.



Lol. He is calling out the one guy ranked ahead of him and the guy he can unify the belt with. Its not like hes opportunistically picking on poor old man Jon.
I just can't get behind this "there's no way to know" argument. When we're talking about hypothetical fights, no one is speaking in absolutes. There isn't a way to know most things for sure. But we can use evidence to determine what would most likely happen. Aspinall just doesn't have enough evidence to say he could beat those guys. Those other guys have evidence to say they could beat Aspinall-- and they have a lot of it.

His competition isnt great but I think how "bad" it is it gets overstated too. If this was like 2009 and someone had stopped lets say Tim, post Pride Nog and Mir in the first round they'd be getting plenty of hype. Would Tim, Nog and Mir all go 3-0 if they fought Pav, Blaydes and Volkov? I highly doubt that. Theres a decent chance the "bums" of today would win more often.
They would, if we're talking them in their prime. For Volkov in particular, he's actually been around for a while. There's some overlap in the timeline of him and the careers of those fighters you mentioned. Volkov just wasn't good enough to make it at the time. He was a Bellator tier fighter for the longest. Right now in my opinion, he's masquerading as UFC level.

I do agree that people can get carried away with hyping him up but then you have people who go too far in the opposite direction too and act like every name from the good old days would have wrecked him.
I think we have the right to say that until he proves himself.

Like I said, i'm not gonna be favouring Tom to beat Cain or Fedor, or DC, not now and probably not ever, even if he beats Jon and Ngannou.
Fair enough.

Where's the punch? He (Pav) throws a feeler jab and then is throwing a wide left hook when Aspinall counters with the short right that lands on his temple. I did mistake that Pav was already resetting, he's actually in the process of throwing a wide left hook when Aspinall clips him. Pav's punch never comes close to getting there obviously because 1) Aspinall's is a short, more straight shot while Pav's is a looping sloppy hook and 2) Aspinall is just eons faster. But you can see literally right in your gif Pav throwing the wide looping left as he's hit.
... Wow, I'm kind of speechless here. You're legitimately insane.... I shouldn't have to tell you that's him reacting to a punch. On the bright side, I am proud of you for at least to some degree admitting you were wrong.


And as for Aspinall being subbed...I really would never say a 22 year old (especially at HW) in their 4th pro fight is their "prime" and not exactly sure why you would either. But if you want another example? How about JDS getting armbarred in a minute in his 5th pro fight in some random Brazilian regional org by a guy that never made it off the regional scene? That good enough for ya? Or is JDS not a great fighter to you? (And JDS was 27 vs Aspinall 22, so in terms of "prime" I'd say JDS should've been more peak physically and more mentally mature given the age of each).
Of course. If that's all we had to go off of when it came to JDS, I would judge him pretty harshly for that. The problem is, it's not. JDS has actually beaten great fighters. And he was beating them at a pretty consistent rate, even when he was past his prime. But hypothetically speaking, let's say I give you the benefit of the doubt and agree that's a legitimate example (which I don't for the aforementioned reason). What about the other guys though? You're cherry picking. Exceptions don't make the rule.
 
His defence is a problem and he's been overcoming it with his physical traits against guys that largely aren't equipped to capitalize on it as they're not technical strikers. But when even someone like Curtis Blaydes is catching you on the very first punch because you leave yourself wide open attempting a flying knee:

giphy.gif
There are people who look at Tom Aspinall fighting... And they're like "oh my god, *chefs kiss*, he's so brilliant. I've never seen anything like it." And to me, it's like, I get salivating over the finishes. But are we watching the same thing? You have to have never been hit hard in your career to think it's okay to run in like that. He wastes so much energy in ways, that I know if he was actually the smart, cerebral fighter they say he is, he wouldn't feel the need to do that.
 
It's hilarious reading that OP and seeing how biased it is whilst trying to pretend to be reasoned analysis

Look at the way he fellates the one dimensional Gane whilst down playing Tom at every point

As transparent as clingfilm underwear. Dunno why people waste their time
 
There are people who look at Tom Aspinall fighting... And they're like "oh my god, *chefs kiss*, he's so brilliant. I've never seen anything like it." And to me, it's like, I get salivating over the finishes. But are we watching the same thing? You have to have never been hit hard in your career to think it's okay to run in like that. He wastes so much energy in ways, that I know if he was actually the smart, cerebral fighter they say he is, he wouldn't feel the need to do that.
People's head canon of Tom don't remotely match the reality of him. That's why so many people ignore he already has 3 losses.

He's fast, hits hard, and has an offensive ground game. That carries you a lot at HW, especially these days. He's undeniably a physical and offensive specimen BUT it's evident that's been carrying him as his defence is non-existent. He's reckless, fights with an urgency that often isn't warranted, and drops his hands literally every time he attacks with his legs. He's been lucky so far that his physical attributes give him success on the feet and his offensive grappling give him a back up if not.

People pretending he's some new mature, calculated, evolved HW are being absurd or simply lying. He's shown nothing like that, to say the least that we have no idea what his cardio or defensive grappling look like these days.

He's obviously up next, but then again that's what people were saying about Pav and plenty of others too. Having such poor defence is going to cost any fighter eventually.
 
It's hilarious reading that OP and seeing how biased it is whilst trying to pretend to be reasoned analysis

Look at the way he fellates the one dimensional Gane whilst down playing Tom at every point

As transparent as clingfilm underwear. Dunno why people waste their time
It's kinda funny people call Gane 1 dimensional when he's got the same amount of sub wins and losses as Tom.

Except his sub loss was to Jon Jones and not Stuart Austin.
 
I just can't get behind this "there's no way to know" argument. When we're talking about hypothetical fights, no one is speaking in absolutes. There isn't a way to know most things for sure. But we can use evidence to determine what would most likely happen. Aspinall just doesn't have enough evidence to say he could beat those guys. Those other guys have evidence to say they could beat Aspinall-- and they have a lot of it.

Like I said, we dont know his actual ceiling because we havent seen him tested or fight a really big name, because outside of Jon and Ngannou, there arent any right now. But he passes the eye test big time against the guys he faced, who imo, in the case of his top 3 wins, are guys that, while not ATG HWs, would likely be top 10 level in any era.


Just seems weird to outright dismiss a guy with his attributes.

They would, if we're talking them in their prime.

You seriously see Big Tim the sloth going 3-0 against Pav, Blayes and Volkov? I would not be shocked at all if Pav blasted him out in the first round like Fedor and Mercer did. Mir was inconsistent, he has some very good wins but some pretty shitty losses too. And UFC Nog was a shadow of himself.

I dont think Carwin or Brock would go 3-0 against Pav, Blaydes and Volkov either. Carwins gas tank was terrible and if Brock couldnt wrestlefuck someone he was screwed.


For Volkov in particular, he's actually been around for a while. There's some overlap in the timeline of him and the careers of those fighters you mentioned. Volkov just wasn't good enough to make it at the time. He was a Bellator tier fighter for the longest. Right now in my opinion, he's masquerading as UFC level.

Volkov started very young, he probably didnt hit full physical and mental maturity until a fair bit into his career. I dont see how hes "masquerading as UFC level" when, if he hadnt gotten robbed against Gane just now, he'd be on a 5 fight win streak and 13-4 at UFC level.

I think we have the right to say that until he proves himself.

What exactly would he have to do to "prove himself" though? hes been trying for years to fight Jon, and even if he did beat Jon he'd be beating a nearly 40 year old decade past prime bloated inactive career LHW with zero power who might not actually even be a top 3 current HW in reality.

I do think you're seriously underrating his wins over Pav, Blaydes and Volkov though, when you say they'd go a collective 0-9 against Tim, Mir and UFC Nog, and that Volkov isnt even UFC level.
 
It's kinda funny people call Gane 1 dimensional when he's got the same amount of sub wins and losses as Tom.

Except his sub loss was to Jon Jones and not Stuart Austin.

Tom was 22 years old when he got subbed.

Gane didnt get involved in ANY combat sports until he was in his mid 20s, and had his first MMA fight at 28. And was then signed by the UFC a year later. Hes a great athlete but obviously green as fuck.
 
You seriously see Big Tim the sloth going 3-0 against Pav, Blayes and Volkov? I would not be shocked at all if Pav blasted him out in the first round like Fedor and Mercer did. Mir was inconsistent, he has some very good wins but some pretty shitty losses too. And UFC Nog was a shadow of himself.

I dont think Carwin or Brock would go 3-0 against Pav, Blaydes and Volkov either. Carwins gas tank was terrible and if Brock couldnt wrestlefuck someone he was screwed.
Absolutely. Who is Pavlovich and what has he done? He lost to probably the most limited form of Overeem we've ever seen. Well, what I'm saying is those fighters at their best. You seem to be using them at their worse. And with Blaydes, are you serious? He had nothing for the Black Beast. All of those guys are better than the Black Beast. Same with Volkov. You're telling me with all that height and reach-- and this supposed elite level skillset, he couldn't avoid getting his lights shut out by Derrick Lewis? Yeah man, I don't see it.

Just seems weird to outright dismiss a guy with his attributes.
I've seen better attributes turn out to not be great.

Volkov started very young, he probably didnt hit full physical and mental maturity until a fair bit into his career. I dont see how hes "masquerading as UFC level" when, if he hadnt gotten robbed against Gane just now, he'd be on a 5 fight win streak and 13-4 at UFC level.
That's one performance. And at the end of the day, it was a loss. If the best he can do in his entire career is a losing effort against a Cyril Gane that just got embarrassed in a single round and is searching for purpose in life, then I think my assessment is more accurate. Coming off of a win himself, he should have won that fight very convincingly.

What exactly would he have to do to "prove himself" though? hes been trying for years to fight Jon, and even if he did beat Jon he'd be beating a nearly 40 year old decade past prime bloated inactive career LHW with zero power who might not actually even be a top 3 current HW in reality.

I do think you're seriously underrating his wins over Pav, Blaydes and Volkov though, when you say they'd go a collective 0-9 against Tim, Mir and UFC Nog, and that Volkov isnt even UFC level.
Beat some elite guys. My thing is this - it's an unfortunate circumstance that he's in. But I'm not going to use that as an excuse and give him the consolation prize, of saying he can do things that he hasn't shown yet.
 
I just can't get behind this "there's no way to know" argument. When we're talking about hypothetical fights, no one is speaking in absolutes. There isn't a way to know most things for sure. But we can use evidence to determine what would most likely happen. Aspinall just doesn't have enough evidence to say he could beat those guys. Those other guys have evidence to say they could beat Aspinall-- and they have a lot of it.


They would, if we're talking them in their prime. For Volkov in particular, he's actually been around for a while. There's some overlap in the timeline of him and the careers of those fighters you mentioned. Volkov just wasn't good enough to make it at the time. He was a Bellator tier fighter for the longest. Right now in my opinion, he's masquerading as UFC level.


I think we have the right to say that until he proves himself.


Fair enough.


... Wow, I'm kind of speechless here. You're legitimately insane.... I shouldn't have to tell you that's him reacting to a punch. On the bright side, I am proud of you for at least to some degree admitting you were wrong.



Of course. If that's all we had to go off of when it came to JDS, I would judge him pretty harshly for that. The problem is, it's not. JDS has actually beaten great fighters. And he was beating them at a pretty consistent rate, even when he was past his prime. But hypothetically speaking, let's say I give you the benefit of the doubt and agree that's a legitimate example (which I don't for the aforementioned reason). What about the other guys though? You're cherry picking. Exceptions don't make the rule.

You asked me to name "great HW's in their prime submitted before they even hit a world level". Which of those doesn’t that JDS example fulfill? And as I said, Aspinall was 22 and JDS was 27. Now you're amending to "if that's all we have to go off". What??? That makes zero sense. Of COURSE it's not "all we have to go off". Otherwise we wouldn't agree he's "great". Seriously, wtf dude? It's like you can't remember the argument you were making to begin with.

And no that wasn't Pav reacting to a punch. Not sure if you've trained a day in your life but you don't throw a winging hook to "react" to a punch. Pav's arm was already starting to go before Aspinall landed the shot. Be "speechless" all you want, it seems like you've maybe never been in a gym at all. I can't know for sure...but if you had it's hard to see you thinking this way.
 
People's head canon of Tom don't remotely match the reality of him. That's why so many people ignore he already has 3 losses.

He's fast, hits hard, and has an offensive ground game. That carries you a lot at HW, especially these days. He's undeniably a physical and offensive specimen BUT it's evident that's been carrying him as his defence is non-existent. He's reckless, fights with an urgency that often isn't warranted, and drops his hands literally every time he attacks with his legs. He's been lucky so far that his physical attributes give him success on the feet and his offensive grappling give him a back up if not.

People pretending he's some new mature, calculated, evolved HW are being absurd or simply lying. He's shown nothing like that, to say the least that we have no idea what his cardio or defensive grappling look like these days.

He's obviously up next, but then again that's what people were saying about Pav and plenty of others too. Having such poor defence is going to cost any fighter eventually.

And then that little head movement thing he did multiple times against Pavlovich. Where do they teach that at?
 
You asked me to name "great HW's in their prime submitted before they even hit a world level". Which of those doesn’t that JDS example fulfill? And as I said, Aspinall was 22 and JDS was 27. Now you're amending to "if that's all we have to go off". What??? That makes zero sense. Of COURSE it's not "all we have to go off". Otherwise we wouldn't agree he's "great". Seriously, wtf dude? It's like you can't remember the argument you were making to begin with.
Plural. Try again.

And no that wasn't Pav reacting to a punch. Not sure if you've trained a day in your life but you don't throw a winging hook to "react" to a punch. Pav's arm was already starting to go before Aspinall landed the shot. Be "speechless" all you want, it seems like you've maybe never been in a gym at all. I can't know for sure...but if you had it's hard to see you thinking this way.
You're exposing yourself and you're projecting what you know to be true about yourself onto me. Look man, I'm not going to get into real life with you. But there's nobody who's seriously studied boxing or worn a pair of boxing gloves a day in their life that would be impressed by what Tom Aspinall's doing. You can put on a show for the people who might be viewing this (because some of the people here don't know any better)-- but behind the keyboard you know the truth. And based on the kinds of arguments you're making, I know the truth too.
 
Tom was 22 years old when he got subbed.

Gane didnt get involved in ANY combat sports until he was in his mid 20s, and had his first MMA fight at 28. And was then signed by the UFC a year later. Hes a great athlete but obviously green as fuck.
So what you're saying is Tom got subbed by a regional can despite 15 years of grappling, meanwhile Gane didn't get subbed until facing GOAT Jon Jones despite only 6 years of grappling?

And this is somehow better for Tom?
 
And then that little head movement thing he did multiple times against Pavlovich. Where do they teach that at?
It's not talked enough that Tom probably benefitted quite a bit from the fact that Pav was the official backup and prepared for Jon and Stipe, two technical strikers, completely unlike himself who was randomly slotted in instead of doing Pav/Stipe like should've happened.

Pav's advantage there was if it actually went 5 rounds, not if some random went 0-60 at him which becomes a 50-50 scenario in the best of situations.
 
Absolutely. Who is Pavlovich and what has he done? He lost to probably the most limited form of Overeem we've ever seen. Well, what I'm saying is those fighters at their best. You seem to be using them at their worse.

I initially said "imagine if this was 2009 and there was a HW out there who in the last few years had stopped Tim, Mir and post-Pride Nog in the first round they'd be getting plenty of hype".

Which version of Mir for example was "prime"? he had good wins and rough losses pretty much dotted around his entire career. I honestly dont know which run of his you could pinpoint as him being at his best.

I think you're placing too much value on guys being "names" and beating other names rather than the stylistic match ups.



And with Blaydes, are you serious? He had nothing for the Black Beast. All of those guys are better than the Black Beast. Same with Volkov. You're telling me with all that height and reach-- and this supposed elite level skillset, he couldn't avoid getting his lights shut out by Derrick Lewis? Yeah man, I don't see it.

This being a case in point. Blaydes was 18-4 when Tom fought him, 14-4 in the UFC. His losses were exclusively to heavy hitters. On paper he is a very difficult match up for a guy like Brock, who I assume you wouldnt consider a "bum"?

As for getting KO'd be Derrick Lewis, is that worse than prime CC getting knocked out cold by a 5'8 wrestler who was coming off of back to back losses in a lower weight class? or Tim while still considered a top 5 HW getting knocked in 10 seconds by a 48 year old boxer? same Tim getting mauled by a 44 year old Randy who is around the same size as DDP?

Beat some elite guys. My thing is this - it's an unfortunate circumstance that he's in. But I'm not going to use that as an excuse and give him the consolation prize, of saying he can do things that he hasn't shown yet.

I think theres a healthy middle ground between "he'd beat everyone ever" and "he'd lose to Big Country because he hasnt fought any recognisable names, and his best wins would get wiped out by Tim Sylvia"
 
All guys that would beat tom,

Big Nog
Lesnar
Overeem
Shane
Mir
Cain
Jon Jones
DC
Bigfoot
Werdum
Stripe
CroCop
JDS

Randy would be too small for him so Tom beats him
 
Plural. Try again.


You're exposing yourself and you're projecting what you know to be true about yourself onto me. Look man, I'm not going to get into real life with you. But there's nobody who's seriously studied boxing or worn a pair of boxing gloves a day in their life that would be impressed by what Tom Aspinall's doing. You can put on a show for the people who might be viewing this (because some of the people here don't know any better)-- but behind the keyboard you know the truth. And based on the kinds of arguments you're making, I know the truth too.

"Behind the keyboard" I know where I've been and what I've done. Who I've been in a cage with. I (still) won't claim to know about you. So yes, 100% I know the truth about myself. And I don't need to put on a show. It seems like you do, though I'm doing everything I can not to jump to conclusions. My base was grappling yes, but I was surrounded by strikers. But sure, "nobody who's ever laced up boxing gloves" would be impressed by a guy in the premier MMA organization knocking out 5 consecutive top 10 guys in the first round. FFS...there aren't words.


Ahh plural. Doesn't count unless there's MORE than one example of "great" fighters that this applies to. While "great" is utterly undefined and just subject to who you deem "great". Who qualifies as "great" by your HW MMA standards?
 
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