Why is The Chris such a big favorite?

[NoBiasJustMMA]

Yeah, Machida is old and didn't look good against the best in the world Jon Jones.

Betting on MMA = retardation

I agree, when the judges are so bad it's not smart to bet on fights, your guy can clearly win and you still might lose money.

 

[rraaju]

good for me.

 

[mkess101]

I agree, when the judges are so bad it's not smart to bet on fights, your guy can clearly win and you still might lose money.

You take things like that into account when betting. Pay attention to when a guy tends to get the benefit of close decisions, if he's fighting in his hometown, etc.

Everything comes into play when you bet a fight, not just who "your guy" is.

 

[mkess101]

Right now the odds are roughly at Weidman -220/ Lyoto +180. This seems way off to me. Lyoto is a tougher match up for Weidman than Anderson was IMO. He is much more elusive than Silva and he can stuff take downs. I think this is a very close fight that probably should be 50/50 in terms of odds. Am I missing something?

I said this yesterday. I'm a much bigger Weidman fan than I am Machida, but Machida is the biggest bet I've made in the last 18 months on a fight. I have him at +190. This fight is really close to a pick 'em, and there is unreal value in Machida here.

I can't see the line on Machida not coming in some. The sharps might be sitting tight just a bit longer hoping the general public bets Weidman up just a little more, but expect to see Machida closer to + 150 come fight night.

 

[kpt018]

I said this yesterday. I'm a much bigger Weidman fan than I am Machida, but Machida is the biggest bet I've made in the last 18 months on a fight. I have him at +190. This fight is really close to a pick 'em, and there is unreal value in Machida here.

I can't see the line on Machida not coming in some. The sharps might be sitting tight just a bit longer hoping the general public bets Weidman up just a little more, but expect to see Machida closer to + 150 come fight night.

Machida is really unpredictable IMO. If I where a gambler is stay far away from his fights.

He's just so unique it's hard to tell how fighters will adjust to him.

 

[IloveTHIS]

You have no logic. Lyoto would be a tougher fight than Silva? Whaaaa? Than the GOAT? Dude...just no.

Styles.make.fights.

 

[NoBiasJustMMA]

You take things like that into account when betting. Pay attention to when a guy tends to get the benefit of close decisions, if he's fighting in his hometown, etc.

Everything comes into play when you bet a fight, not just who "your guy" is.

That's retarded though, you shouldn't have to account for poor judging, just who you think the winner is going to be based on their skills and the match up. The only time I was ever going to bet money on a fight online was Shogun vs Machida 1 I was going to put 200 on Shogun, I would have gotten screwed because of bad judging and at the time there was not track record for him getting decisions he shouldn't.

 

[olingobingo]

The Chris is bigger, strong, more athletic (yes, he's faster too--you'll see), has a lot more power, is a better wrestler, has beaten very good strikers like Anderson and Hall, has never had his chin fail him, and he's fighting a guy who has lost half of his fights over the past few years and who lost on at least one scorecard to some non-elite fighters.

Why would Machida be the favorite, because he out-pointed Shogun like six years ago or because he has had ONE impressive finish against a top fighter (KO vs. Evans) in basically his entire career?

Put it this way: In Weidman's last two fights, he has more impressive finishes over elite talent than Machida has in his entire career.

The Chris is rightfully a slight/moderate favorite.

This post pretty much settles it.

Also, betting odds are established by where the bettors' money is going.

 

[MyFist]

Right now the odds are roughly at Weidman -220/ Lyoto +180. This seems way off to me. Lyoto is a tougher match up for Weidman than Anderson was IMO. He is much more elusive than Silva and he can stuff take downs. I think this is a very close fight that probably should be 50/50 in terms of odds. Am I missing something?

First off, look at the odds of Silva vs Weidman 1 and 2 and let us know how you feel.:icon_idea

Weidman destroy Silva easily like taken candy from a baby in the first fight. Weidman an underdog.
The rematch, Weidman was still the underdog LMAO:icon_confSerious Silva will destroy and KO Weidman in 1 minute.
Okay fight start, Weidman KO Silva in the clinch where Silva was suppose to be superior because of his muay thai, wrong, he got KO flash on by Weidman but recover quick.
Round 1 end, Silva didn't even know why he stay in the cage with Weidman, face expression "What am I gonna do to beat full MMA Weidman?"

To me, if Machida is the favorite over Weidman, it's stupid.
This is full camp Weidman, not 11 days notice gas Weidman that cut 32 pounds in 11 day that vs full camp Maia and still beat Maia.
Full cmap Weidman is Man of Steel.

 

[beralin1971]

Weidman by utter destruction KO in the 1st round.

 

[KarateKickbox22]

Instead of telling people how to run their forum, why don't you tell us WHAT is so stupid, buddy? I read his post and NOTHING screams stupidity, that was a lame decision over Moose, unimpressive.

Did you see the scorecards for that fight? It was 50-45, 50-45, 49-47 for Machida.

Who gives a shit if you weren't impressed. Your opinion doesn't mean anything. You don't know anything about MMA. Go back to watching WWE.

 

[mkess101]

That's retarded though, you shouldn't have to account for poor judging, just who you think the winner is going to be based on their skills and the match up. The only time I was ever going to bet money on a fight online was Shogun vs Machida 1 I was going to put 200 on Shogun, I would have gotten screwed because of bad judging and at the time there was not track record for him getting decisions he shouldn't.

You can say it's "retarded", but if you bet you don't have a choice but to take every possible bit of info into account to find where the value lies.

If you are unable or unwilling to do that, don't bet (which it sounds like you don't, so you are making the correct choice given your views). You also have to understand that sometimes you'll get screwed by bad judging or reffing, sometimes you'll benefit from it.

I lost a pretty solid amount when Matt Hammil got screwed vs Bisping. I won $ last night that I shouldn't have on Sanchez. It is what it is.

 

[Jackonflame]

So Weidman is recovering from knee surgery? Wasn't it both knees?

And before the Silva fight it was shoulder surgery?

And this is after only 11 fights?

Money to be made on Machida.

 

[Vil7]

Cuz he white

Dem Crackahs can fight.

 

[Steveston]

Chris Weidman defeating Anderson Silva twice and being undefeated are the main reasons why but I think Lyoto has a great chance.

 

[Mikeyz]

Right now the odds are roughly at Weidman -220/ Lyoto +180. This seems way off to me. Lyoto is a tougher match up for Weidman than Anderson was IMO. He is much more elusive than Silva and he can stuff take downs. I think this is a very close fight that probably should be 50/50 in terms of odds. Am I missing something?

Because he beat AS twice.

 

[mkess101]

Machida is really unpredictable IMO. If I where a gambler is stay far away from his fights.

He's just so unique it's hard to tell how fighters will adjust to him.

Machida has quite a history of smashing boxer/wrestlers, and that's a weight class up.

He's smart enough to know he can't be as tentative as he was vs Rampage in the first two rounds of that fight. He learned his lesson there.

Styles make fights, and Machida is SOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO much worse a matchup for Weidman than Vitor would have been or even than Silva was. Here's why:

Weidman is a grappling phenom. Anyone who disagrees should look up his grappling match vs Andre Galvao. He have Galvao all he wanted, and Weidman had been training bjj for less than a year. He's a BJ Penn type prodigy in what his learning curve was, and that's not something I'd say lightly. Plus he had the wrestling pedigree to start with, which Penn didn't.

Weidman also has the ability to do serious damage once he takes guys down, even in their guard. Silva found that out in the first fight, which is why he started trying to goad Weidman into standing and not taking him down. Silva found out very quickly that it was much different getting hit by Weidman while on his back than it was vs Chael or Travis Lutter.

So why all the Weidman flattery if I think Machida is such amazing value? Because Machida has something that neither Silva nor Vitor have: a track record of stellar tdd (and again, that was against bigger guys a weight class up). Guys like Silva and Vitor have to consciously think about being put on their back at all times against someone like Weidman. He's a better grappler than they are, and can smash people once he takes them down. That affects the striking game, and is a good example of why one skill blends into another in MMA. Weidman's striking feeds off his grappling, and vice versa. GSP had the same abilites, keeping guys constantly off balance.

But Machida doesn't have to worry as much about that as those other guys. He (rightfully) will have far more confidence in his ability to keep the fight standing. And while I believe Weidman has more power, Machida is the more well rounded and more dynamic striker overall. He has the advantage in a fight that stays standing. Maybe not a big advantage, and Weidman could certainly catch him and finish him, but the odds of this fight are simply off. It happens, and good bettors take advantage.

For the record, with no $ involved I'd absolutely be rooting for Weidman in this fight.

 

[NoBiasJustMMA]

You can say it's "retarded", but if you bet you don't have a choice but to take every possible bit of info into account to find where the value lies.

If you are unable or unwilling to do that, don't bet (which it sounds like you don't, so you are making the correct choice given your views). You also have to understand that sometimes you'll get screwed by bad judging or reffing, sometimes you'll benefit from it.

I lost a pretty solid amount when Matt Hammil got screwed vs Bisping. I won $ last night that I shouldn't have on Sanchez. It is what it is.

I would rather not take that chance, I would have to pay attention to how each and every judge judges fights, and if they judge fights differently based on where they take place and what style of fighting they prefer. If the judges were only rarely incompetent then I would bet but it's not rare.

 

[Dreaming Dead]

Did you see the scorecards for that fight? It was 50-45, 50-45, 49-47 for Machida.

Who gives a shit if you weren't impressed. Your opinion doesn't mean anything. You don't know anything about MMA. Go back to watching WWE.

lulz, seriously? No need to be this angry and bitter because somebody is criticizing your favorite fighter at Sherdog. Spend your energy elsewhere.

Or maybe you just enjoy picking e-fights.

 

[KarateKickbox22]

lulz, seriously? No need to be this angry and bitter because somebody is criticizing your favorite fighter at Sherdog. Spend your energy elsewhere.

Or maybe you just enjoy picking e-fights.

You would have to be a complete idiot to say Machida "barely" squeaked past Mousasi.

The guy I quoted has no idea what he is talking about.

Thanks for your input.