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What's Ngannou's strategy gonna be?

It's going to look like his performance against Lewis, maybe not from the opening bell, but once he gets countered a couple of times
 
I’m sure it’s been said …. But I bet he attempts to get himself in a position to punch Gane in the face
 
GUY said:
I just don't think blitzing will work because of how good Gane's movement and clinch is. His wrestling wasnt tested, Ngannou is bigger and stronger and has been training mma for longer. If I was his manager I would include offensive wrestling heavily on this camp. But you are probably right and it won't happen.
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Ngannou has been training MMA longer but how much of his training has been focused on offense wrestling? Probably very little and if you aren't a wrestler by nature or really have focused on building it into your game over a long period it's really tough to force that approach. Hitting a low-single off a clinch against the cage is possible for Ngannou (though unlikely because as noted Gane is really good at hand-fighting and creating space in the clinch), while any type of open-space shot into a string of chained takedowns is seemingly improbable.

I don't think you take an unreal KO artist like Ngannou and turn him into a wrestler because he has to fight an out-fighter, you instead have to find ways to stifle the out-fighters game and force him to fight more on your terms. I think Ngannou needs to be trying different tactics to set-up the blitz; he'll have to hide the blitz based no a set-up/counter/layered attack and can't just bum-rush like he has some of his slower-footed past opponents.
 
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The Legendary Scarface said:
We all know he is the guy who decapitates ppl with one punch, but how does he set that up vs the elusive and technical Gane??

Will he try and time a leg kick to throw a bomb over the top?
Will he come out from the opening bell like a bat out of hell and try to rush Cyril like he did Rosenstruik?
Will he try and be patient and try and time something in the later rounds?
Is there something you guys think he can capitalize on??
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stalk gane and leg kick him
 
If you listen to his interviews he talks about how he's been training wrestling constantly since the first Stipe fight but just hasnt had a chance or needed to show it, Gane is much greener in grappling and is probably expecting Francis to try and knock his head into the stands early. We could actually end up seeing a Stipe/Ngannou 1 type of fight where Ngannou clinches and takes Gane down & beats him up on the ground, maybe even submits him.

It's crazy to think 'Ngannou by submission' because of the narrative going into it and how most of his fights played out, but when you think about skill differential, Ngannou hit a Kimura in one of his early UFC fights before Gane even started training MMA.. think about that. Ngannou could potentially ragdoll him and not need to land that big punch. He has some smart people behind him now that are surely considering this as an option. He was able to stuff Stipe's wrestling in the rematch, take his back and hurt him with some nasty GnP early in the fight. So imagine what he could do to someone as green on the ground as Gane. The more I think about it, that is probably what's going to happen rather than the fight everyone's expecting.

Official prediction: NCAA/D1 Ngannou is born this saturday and he dominates with 5 rounds of top control or a round 3 Kimura, and after the fight he takes the belt away from Dana (like Stipe did when he felt disrespected) and has his coach put it on instead.
 
Well judging from how he usually fights.... I'll go out on a limb and guess he'll go for the KO.
 
Kick patience and expose the guy who has fought for 2 years. As with all Frenchman a stiff wind will cause surrender
 
Gane will be either out of reach or in his face and if it goes to the ground Francis will be submitted very quickly. His only chance is to catch Gane but that’s gonna be tough
 
TheMMAnalyst said:
Whaup @Spath hope you are doing great buddy - very nice fight analysis as always, some nice insights into how each guy could approach this fight and what it might look like.

Looking back on Gane vs. Rozenstruick fight is making me shudder in terror at the prospect of the most athletic heavyweight fight in history turning into a tepid out-fighter against a a flat-footed counter-striker, with the out-fighter doing non-stop feints with occasional low-impact jab or kick while the counter-striker literally sits on the edge of range waiting for a committed strike to counter while conserving energy...Izzy vs. Romero is also suddenly at the forefront of my cerebral cortex and I don't like it one bit!

<RomeroSalute>

I wrote the following breakdown of this fight for a friend in April of 2021 and have made a few slight adjustments to it for the sake of updating, but I think the core of it still holds true:

3. Ngannou vs Gane (current)

The heavyweight Super-Fight of the modern era - two of the most athletic heavyweights of all-time, one the most technical out-fighter we've ever seen in the weight class, the other the most devastating power puncher we've ever seen in the weight class.

Ex-sparring partners with the ex-coach being the fork in the mud stuck in the middle of the drama. Last fight on the champions contract, whom is holding out for leverage when he re-negotiates. So many storylines, so much fight potential, it's one of those rare A+ fights you get in the sport, when they come along we should cherish them!!!

This will be a HW kickboxing match with 4 oz gloves, which innately at HW seems to favor Ngannou - as always with HW, who hits harder and who can take more damage is the apex characteristic trait to rule the division. Gane is kind of an anomaly of the sport, since we've never really seen "fast" technical out-fighters capable of fighting at this level in the HW division prior.

Gane is more well-rounded as a fighter than Ngannou in all areas and far more technical - his depth of technical striking is very high, especially at HW. Ngannou has made some huge leaps but can still be wild/reckless and open to counters with his defense lacking in hand/head position, as he's so privatized on landing with power over any other facet of the game. Gane's X-Factor is his speed, he is by far the fastest striker in the division and it's not even close. When you add his layered and diverse range of striking techniques and set-ups it presents a nightmare scenario for almost every elite HW match-up in the division that gives him considerable advantages.

Gane's level of grappling is solid as well, though I think we saw against Rozenstruick that he doesn't have great wrestling or control; it is likely above average at best and he doesn't want to waste energy on it but will use it to keep opponent off-guard if it suits the match-up. He has some submission skills but will likely never be able to even threaten against a beast like Ngganou (and would be dangerous to play that game). Ngannou showed against Stipe he has evolved his counter-wrestling game and is more cognizant of range and opponents level changes so he likely won't be getting taken down unless he's hurt or recklessly brawling (and even then impossible to control it would seem).

Gane's fighting approach for the division is very smart in terms of defense, he always seems to be aware of range and what his opponent could potentially do, so he's limited the damage he's taken to almost nothing. He's so fast he's been able to just use feints and lateral movement to dictate range at all time and confound opponents. However, against Ngannou he is going to have to put himself in harms ways and can't fight his methodical out-fighter style fight for the duration of the fight, he'll have to at least fluctuate stylistically in moments. Ngganou is so big and strong that he can take shots to force brawling exchanges and if times it on a light kick Gane will have a really tough time avoiding the follow-up exchange and could be doing the "run away and reset defense" that guys trying to avoid pressure at all costs will use as a last resort.

Ngannou is likely far more durable and obviously has a significant power advantage and that is his X-Factor in this match-up of course. These guys have sparred a lot but sparring is different than fighting, you aren't even necessarily throwing over 70% power (especially at HW with two specimens like this, maybe they are throwing at 30-50%). So Gane has likely barely tasted Ngannou's true power, while Ngannou probably will have a better feel for Gane's technical acumen and speed. He likely knows what holes Gane will look to exploit and that if he sits at range reacting or letting Gane set the pace/timing he will get tagged up and frustrated. I think his game-plan should be to try to counter almost everything (feints or weak strikes); he needs to risk eating a counter to force a more wild engagement, throw in combinations to prolong exchanges and turn the fight into more of a brawl.

The more technical the fight is it will favor Gane heavily, since Ngannou does have a lot of technical flaws in his striking and if given time and space to poke at them Gane will be able to out-point without too much difficulty. But if Ngannou is walking him down and looking to counter-the-counter (especially kicking when he's kicked) then it will completely change Gane's approach and force him to fight more grounded, which swings the pendulum back in Ngannou's favor.

Gane will constantly be needing to reset the range, he doesn't have reactive takedowns + control like a somewhat younger Stipe were he can bait Francis into a firefight and then turn it into a grappling match (also not sure Francis will ever fight that stupid again; re-watched it recently and he gasses himself out in 90 seconds throwing about 25 full-power haymakers that all miss). I don't think it will turn into Gane/Rozenstruick or Izzy/Romero because Ngannou is a far larger and more dangerous "blitz" fighter than Rozenstruick and I expect Gane to have a far higher output without fearing takedowns like Izzy did against Romero.

Gane is very smart in his approach, doesn't take unnecessary risks, and seems to be good at finding holes and exploiting. Can he get a low-kicking game going against Francis with a lot of feints + movement? If so I can see him slowly chopping down the tree, limiting movement, and frustrating Ngannou into making wild mistakes in exchanges. The question is if Gane fought the perfect fight and created those openings, would he have the confidence and power to attack Ngannou to hurt/finish him? I think that is the key approach to winning the fight for Gane, he needs to be willing to build on out-fighting that "frustrates" but doesn't really hurt Ngannou to bait him into exchanges where he can hurt him.

For some reason I can't help but think Ngannou will KO him; something about Gane having to fight the perfect technical out-fight and make multiple stylistic adjustments throughout the course of the fight just makes me lean towards a guy that just needs to create one brawling exchange to change the course of the fight in an instant.

Definitely a 50/50 fight but my gut is going with Ngannou.
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Leo Tolstoy, "War and Peace"
 
TheMMAnalyst said:
Ngannou has been training MMA longer but how much of his training has been focused on offense wrestling? Probably very little and if you aren't a wrestler by nature or really have focused on building it into your game over a long period it's really tough to force that approach. Hitting a low-single off a clinch against the cage is possible for Ngannou (though unlikely because as noted Gane is really good at hand-fighting and creating space in the clinch), while any type of open-space shot into a string of chained takedowns is seemingly improbable.

I don't think you take an unreal KO artist like Ngannou and turn him into a wrestler because he has to fight an out-fighter, you instead have to find ways to stifle the out-fighters game and force him to fight more on your terms. I think Ngannou needs to be trying different tactics to set-up the blitz; he'll have to hide the blitz based no a set-up/counter/layered attack and can't just bum-rush like he has some of his slower-footed past opponents.
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For instance, I am training for my first amateur mma fight after some 8 years of KB/Muay Thai. A lot of my focus is on wrestling. It's hard to believe Ngannou didnt train it.
 
If he's smart he will mix up his wrestling and use his strength to his advantage to hold him against the fence early in the fight to make Ganes hesitate. Ganes will no doubt try and stay light on
The feet for the first 2 or 3 rounds before going in.

Personally I don't think Francis's stipe- strategy will work on ganes because one guy was waiting for an opening to wrestle, while the other guy is looking to purely trade punches. Francis won't be able to sit back and throw 10 punches each round with a guy like ganes.
 
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Gane 1st round ko. Francis is gonna rush in like a bull and run into a straight punch and face plant.
 
Predicting Ngannou will shoot for a takedown in the first round, but, as soon as he gets hurt, he'll throw windmills and he'll either get a knockout or get knocked out.
 
Stalking Gane, cutting off the cage, and attacking in short bursts, don't tire himself out, and trying to goad Gane into a fire fight. Because Gane doesn't have the punching power to win a fire fight.
 
people understimate ngannou's mobility and his boxing ability, ngannou will catch gane with a counter straight/uppercut in the 2nd/3rd round thats how i see it will turn out
 
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