That is a good analysis. I agree Gane would have nothing to win by grapling. But I do believe Ngannou needs wrestling on his gameplan. He the blitz doesnt work and he is getting outclassed, what else should he do? Sit there and get hit? He has no striking defense and he can't blitz for 5 rounds.
I see what you are saying - if plan A (blitzing) isn't working, what's his plan B going to be? I just don't think wrestling is the way to deviate, unless it's maybe hitting a single-leg against the cage if can trap Gane there (which is going to be tough, Gane is going to be using a ton of lateral footwork and feints, especially early).
Ngannou probably has 2 rounds to successfully blitz Gane; he's by far at his most dangerous in the first half of the first round so I wouldn't be shocked to see Gane literally doing nothing early but feinting and trying to draw out power strikes that he can evade to drain Ngannou's energy. If he gets Ngannou tired he will probably feel better about taking angles and countering the blitzes, but early it's a very dangerous game to play. I see Gane trying to be a matador early and just trying to draw out blitzes and avoid them at all costs.
I think Ngannou should stick to what he is at his core - a dangerous blitz fighter that can overwhelm you in a moment if he can get you to make a mistake that involves exchanging power strikes with him in any scenario (pressuring him/open space/backing up/along the fence).
For that reason all of his plans (A/B/C/etc.) should resolve around blitzing, just in different approaches; counter-blitz (wait for a missed or weak strike when opponent is off-balance/out of position), feint-blitz (feint entries that get opponent to stop moving their feet or use jabs that turn into feint-jabs to hide the blitz), cage blitz (get them backed against the cage or get them to back you up to cage and press in too close),
There is always the psycho-blitz like against Rozenstruick (i.e. rush forward throwing power hooks in combination with no reads or set-up), but this is probably the worst approach possible against a technical out-fighter that is going to be wary of the pocket getting collapsed. If Ngannou does that it doesn't bode well, he needs to be in-control and not panicked so he picks the right moments to create chaos and doesn't waste energy.
Fighters like Gane (technical out-fighters) are all about controlling the terms of engagement with speed/footwork/strike variety, so they always feel they are somewhat safe and have multiple defensive options (slippping/pivoting/lateral movement/parries/shoulder roll/clinch) if the opponent tries to force an exchange of power shots on their terms. When you are fighting a high-level out-fighter you have to disrupt their rhythm, or they'll just float outside the edge of kicking range and wait for the right openings to snipe at you when you can't really respond. We've seen Gane fight enough to know he has no problem fighting a boring fight where he tags opponents with occasional quick single strikes before resetting.
The interesting thing to me is what Ngannou is going to use as fight tactics to implement the blitz strategy - does he counter-kick when kicked to limit movement? Is he able to effectively take and hold the center without getting pot-shotted? What type of reactions can he draw out of Gane with feints and can he use those to work inside? Can he find entries to work inside the clinch and actually control Gane briefly to separate and attack on his terms?
Gane is really far too good to just bum-rush; Ngannou is likely going to have to use feints and throwaway strikes to ultimately get in position to set-up a blitz that is unpredictable and can't be stifled by layered defensive reactions. Not going crazy early and not absorbing a ton of attritional leg kicks/body shots are probably essential to Ngannou's strategy, so it's fascinating to see how he's going to deal with such a unique fighter as Gane.
