Whaup
@Spath hope you are doing great buddy - very nice fight analysis as always, some nice insights into how each guy could approach this fight and what it might look like.
Looking back on Gane vs. Rozenstruick fight is making me shudder in terror at the prospect of the most athletic heavyweight fight in history turning into a tepid out-fighter against a a flat-footed counter-striker, with the out-fighter doing non-stop feints with occasional low-impact jab or kick while the counter-striker literally sits on the edge of range waiting for a committed strike to counter while conserving energy...Izzy vs. Romero is also suddenly at the forefront of my cerebral cortex and I don't like it one bit!
I wrote the following breakdown of this fight for a friend in April of 2021 and have made a few slight adjustments to it for the sake of updating, but I think the core of it still holds true:
3. Ngannou vs Gane (current)
The heavyweight Super-Fight of the modern era - two of the most athletic heavyweights of all-time, one the most technical out-fighter we've ever seen in the weight class, the other the most devastating power puncher we've ever seen in the weight class.
Ex-sparring partners with the ex-coach being the fork in the mud stuck in the middle of the drama. Last fight on the champions contract, whom is holding out for leverage when he re-negotiates. So many storylines, so much fight potential, it's one of those rare A+ fights you get in the sport, when they come along we should cherish them!!!
This will be a HW kickboxing match with 4 oz gloves, which innately at HW seems to favor Ngannou - as always with HW, who hits harder and who can take more damage is the apex characteristic trait to rule the division. Gane is kind of an anomaly of the sport, since we've never really seen "fast" technical out-fighters capable of fighting at this level in the HW division prior.
Gane is more well-rounded as a fighter than Ngannou in all areas and far more technical - his depth of technical striking is very high, especially at HW. Ngannou has made some huge leaps but can still be wild/reckless and open to counters with his defense lacking in hand/head position, as he's so privatized on landing with power over any other facet of the game. Gane's X-Factor is his speed, he is by far the fastest striker in the division and it's not even close. When you add his layered and diverse range of striking techniques and set-ups it presents a nightmare scenario for almost every elite HW match-up in the division that gives him considerable advantages.
Gane's level of grappling is solid as well, though I think we saw against Rozenstruick that he doesn't have great wrestling or control; it is likely above average at best and he doesn't want to waste energy on it but will use it to keep opponent off-guard if it suits the match-up. He has some submission skills but will likely never be able to even threaten against a beast like Ngganou (and would be dangerous to play that game). Ngannou showed against Stipe he has evolved his counter-wrestling game and is more cognizant of range and opponents level changes so he likely won't be getting taken down unless he's hurt or recklessly brawling (and even then impossible to control it would seem).
Gane's fighting approach for the division is very smart in terms of defense, he always seems to be aware of range and what his opponent could potentially do, so he's limited the damage he's taken to almost nothing. He's so fast he's been able to just use feints and lateral movement to dictate range at all time and confound opponents. However, against Ngannou he is going to have to put himself in harms ways and can't fight his methodical out-fighter style fight for the duration of the fight, he'll have to at least fluctuate stylistically in moments. Ngganou is so big and strong that he can take shots to force brawling exchanges and if times it on a light kick Gane will have a really tough time avoiding the follow-up exchange and could be doing the "run away and reset defense" that guys trying to avoid pressure at all costs will use as a last resort.
Ngannou is likely far more durable and obviously has a significant power advantage and that is his X-Factor in this match-up of course. These guys have sparred a lot but sparring is different than fighting, you aren't even necessarily throwing over 70% power (especially at HW with two specimens like this, maybe they are throwing at 30-50%). So Gane has likely barely tasted Ngannou's true power, while Ngannou probably will have a better feel for Gane's technical acumen and speed. He likely knows what holes Gane will look to exploit and that if he sits at range reacting or letting Gane set the pace/timing he will get tagged up and frustrated. I think his game-plan should be to try to counter almost everything (feints or weak strikes); he needs to risk eating a counter to force a more wild engagement, throw in combinations to prolong exchanges and turn the fight into more of a brawl.
The more technical the fight is it will favor Gane heavily, since Ngannou does have a lot of technical flaws in his striking and if given time and space to poke at them Gane will be able to out-point without too much difficulty. But if Ngannou is walking him down and looking to counter-the-counter (especially kicking when he's kicked) then it will completely change Gane's approach and force him to fight more grounded, which swings the pendulum back in Ngannou's favor.
Gane will constantly be needing to reset the range, he doesn't have reactive takedowns + control like a somewhat younger Stipe were he can bait Francis into a firefight and then turn it into a grappling match (also not sure Francis will ever fight that stupid again; re-watched it recently and he gasses himself out in 90 seconds throwing about 25 full-power haymakers that all miss). I don't think it will turn into Gane/Rozenstruick or Izzy/Romero because Ngannou is a far larger and more dangerous "blitz" fighter than Rozenstruick and I expect Gane to have a far higher output without fearing takedowns like Izzy did against Romero.
Gane is very smart in his approach, doesn't take unnecessary risks, and seems to be good at finding holes and exploiting. Can he get a low-kicking game going against Francis with a lot of feints + movement? If so I can see him slowly chopping down the tree, limiting movement, and frustrating Ngannou into making wild mistakes in exchanges. The question is if Gane fought the perfect fight and created those openings, would he have the confidence and power to attack Ngannou to hurt/finish him? I think that is the key approach to winning the fight for Gane, he needs to be willing to build on out-fighting that "frustrates" but doesn't really hurt Ngannou to bait him into exchanges where he can hurt him.
For some reason I can't help but think Ngannou will KO him; something about Gane having to fight the perfect technical out-fight and make multiple stylistic adjustments throughout the course of the fight just makes me lean towards a guy that just needs to create one brawling exchange to change the course of the fight in an instant.
Definitely a 50/50 fight but my gut is going with Ngannou.
