What's Ngannou's strategy gonna be?

[MrCoffee]

Can you be a little more specific? When he smells blood? How will he get to that point?

He'll get boofed right in the schnoz. Then panic wrestle.

 

[Captain Herb]

Try to rush him seems most likely. So far Gane has not shown lethal power or devasting counterstriking so he might be able to take the chance. Ngannou is 0-3 in fights that went to a decision. I think the longer the fight goes, the more likely will be a victory for Cyril Gane.

Na, he knows that won't work. He's in a tough spot. If he kickboxes for 5 rounds, he's going to lose, but bum rushing Gane from the bell is even less likely to work. He needs to be patient and find his opening. When he finds it, he has to overwhelm Gane very quickly. They were sparring partners and they know each other's tendencies. He needs to play mind games and bait Gane into making a mistake, he needs to draw him into brawling exchanges.

 

[JarlSkuld]

Eyes closed and swing wildly with all his might; Have you ever watched a HW bout before?

Jarl

 

[STRYDG]

 

[Captain Herb]

I think that is the key approach to winning the fight for Gane, he needs to be willing to build on out-fighting that "frustrates" but doesn't really hurt Ngannou to bait him into exchanges where he can hurt him.

This immediately made me think of the Nunes game plan vs Cyborg. I think it's counterintuitive to think that Gane could put out Francis, and should even try, but if he can get Francis to swing wildly with emotion, he could definitely do that.

 

[Spath]

Whaup @Spath hope you are doing great buddy - very nice fight analysis as always, some nice insights into how each guy could approach this fight and what it might look like.

Looking back on Gane vs. Rozenstruick fight is making me shudder in terror at the prospect of the most athletic heavyweight fight in history turning into a tepid out-fighter against a a flat-footed counter-striker, with the out-fighter doing non-stop feints with occasional low-impact jab or kick while the counter-striker literally sits on the edge of range waiting for a committed strike to counter while conserving energy...Izzy vs. Romero is also suddenly at the forefront of my cerebral cortex and I don't like it one bit!



I wrote the following breakdown of this fight for a friend in April of 2021 and have made a few slight adjustments to it for the sake of updating, but I think the core of it still holds true:

3. Ngannou vs Gane (current)

The heavyweight Super-Fight of the modern era - two of the most athletic heavyweights of all-time, one the most technical out-fighter we've ever seen in the weight class, the other the most devastating power puncher we've ever seen in the weight class.

Ex-sparring partners with the ex-coach being the fork in the mud stuck in the middle of the drama. Last fight on the champions contract, whom is holding out for leverage when he re-negotiates. So many storylines, so much fight potential, it's one of those rare A+ fights you get in the sport, when they come along we should cherish them!!!

This will be a HW kickboxing match with 4 oz gloves, which innately at HW seems to favor Ngannou - as always with HW, who hits harder and who can take more damage is the apex characteristic trait to rule the division. Gane is kind of an anomaly of the sport, since we've never really seen "fast" technical out-fighters capable of fighting at this level in the HW division prior.

Gane is more well-rounded as a fighter than Ngannou in all areas and far more technical - his depth of technical striking is very high, especially at HW. Ngannou has made some huge leaps but can still be wild/reckless and open to counters with his defense lacking in hand/head position, as he's so privatized on landing with power over any other facet of the game. Gane's X-Factor is his speed, he is by far the fastest striker in the division and it's not even close. When you add his layered and diverse range of striking techniques and set-ups it presents a nightmare scenario for almost every elite HW match-up in the division that gives him considerable advantages.

Gane's level of grappling is solid as well, though I think we saw against Rozenstruick that he doesn't have great wrestling or control; it is likely above average at best and he doesn't want to waste energy on it but will use it to keep opponent off-guard if it suits the match-up. He has some submission skills but will likely never be able to even threaten against a beast like Ngganou (and would be dangerous to play that game). Ngannou showed against Stipe he has evolved his counter-wrestling game and is more cognizant of range and opponents level changes so he likely won't be getting taken down unless he's hurt or recklessly brawling (and even then impossible to control it would seem).

Gane's fighting approach for the division is very smart in terms of defense, he always seems to be aware of range and what his opponent could potentially do, so he's limited the damage he's taken to almost nothing. He's so fast he's been able to just use feints and lateral movement to dictate range at all time and confound opponents. However, against Ngannou he is going to have to put himself in harms ways and can't fight his methodical out-fighter style fight for the duration of the fight, he'll have to at least fluctuate stylistically in moments. Ngganou is so big and strong that he can take shots to force brawling exchanges and if times it on a light kick Gane will have a really tough time avoiding the follow-up exchange and could be doing the "run away and reset defense" that guys trying to avoid pressure at all costs will use as a last resort.

Ngannou is likely far more durable and obviously has a significant power advantage and that is his X-Factor in this match-up of course. These guys have sparred a lot but sparring is different than fighting, you aren't even necessarily throwing over 70% power (especially at HW with two specimens like this, maybe they are throwing at 30-50%). So Gane has likely barely tasted Ngannou's true power, while Ngannou probably will have a better feel for Gane's technical acumen and speed. He likely knows what holes Gane will look to exploit and that if he sits at range reacting or letting Gane set the pace/timing he will get tagged up and frustrated. I think his game-plan should be to try to counter almost everything (feints or weak strikes); he needs to risk eating a counter to force a more wild engagement, throw in combinations to prolong exchanges and turn the fight into more of a brawl.

The more technical the fight is it will favor Gane heavily, since Ngannou does have a lot of technical flaws in his striking and if given time and space to poke at them Gane will be able to out-point without too much difficulty. But if Ngannou is walking him down and looking to counter-the-counter (especially kicking when he's kicked) then it will completely change Gane's approach and force him to fight more grounded, which swings the pendulum back in Ngannou's favor.

Gane will constantly be needing to reset the range, he doesn't have reactive takedowns + control like a somewhat younger Stipe were he can bait Francis into a firefight and then turn it into a grappling match (also not sure Francis will ever fight that stupid again; re-watched it recently and he gasses himself out in 90 seconds throwing about 25 full-power haymakers that all miss). I don't think it will turn into Gane/Rozenstruick or Izzy/Romero because Ngannou is a far larger and more dangerous "blitz" fighter than Rozenstruick and I expect Gane to have a far higher output without fearing takedowns like Izzy did against Romero.

Gane is very smart in his approach, doesn't take unnecessary risks, and seems to be good at finding holes and exploiting. Can he get a low-kicking game going against Francis with a lot of feints + movement? If so I can see him slowly chopping down the tree, limiting movement, and frustrating Ngannou into making wild mistakes in exchanges. The question is if Gane fought the perfect fight and created those openings, would he have the confidence and power to attack Ngannou to hurt/finish him? I think that is the key approach to winning the fight for Gane, he needs to be willing to build on out-fighting that "frustrates" but doesn't really hurt Ngannou to bait him into exchanges where he can hurt him.

For some reason I can't help but think Ngannou will KO him; something about Gane having to fight the perfect technical out-fight and make multiple stylistic adjustments throughout the course of the fight just makes me lean towards a guy that just needs to create one brawling exchange to change the course of the fight in an instant.

Definitely a 50/50 fight but my gut is going with Ngannou.

Ladies and sherdoggers.. The best breakdown artist has spoken!



Thanks bud, I knew you’d bring it and that’s why I tagged ya. Hope all is good and well, take care!

 

[Herwald]

Watch the Lewis vs Francis fight. Unfortunately.

 

[Hatorade]

Cool and patient

 

[amok attitude]

I think his gameplan will revolve around 4 points:

1. Stalk Gane and cut the cage, have options ready to catch his lateral exits
2. Cripple his mobility with leg kicks
3. Create incertainty with level changes to make openings for his punches
4. Counter when Gane moves forward

I dont know about that, he would need trumendous energy and stamina to do that. If he tries something like that, could he go for more than 5 or 10 minutes? I hardly believe it but 5 or 10 min might be enough.

 

[spinup]

I dont know about that, he would need trumendous energy and stamina to do that. If he tries something like that, could he go for more than 5 or 10 minutes? I hardly believe it but 5 or 10 min might be enough.

It's already pretty much what he did vs Stipe, he doesn't need to go at a crazy volume. Explode at the right time, don't prolong the effort, recover, repeat.

 

[Spath]

Watch the Lewis vs Francis fight. Unfortunately.

Lewis fights nothing like Gane, so… No. But it could be boring! If Gane rides his bike like there is no tomorrow we could be in for a long night.

I think Gane will use same method that GSP used to beat BJ Penn in their rematch. That was overwhelming Penn with feints and getting him to react. Penn had really fast reactions and would smack GSP when he tried to strike, but GSP’s team figured out they could burn Penn out by drawing reactions out of him continuously.

Ngannou likes to counterstrike. Gane utilizes a ton of feints. Who knows!

We’ll see what goes down on Saturday night!

 

[Dowdy]

Gane darts in and out. I think Francis will catch him with an uppercut as Gane tries to move in

 

[spinup]

I think Gane will use same method that GSP used to beat BJ Penn in their rematch.

I don't think vaseline on his back will help a lot against Ngannou.

Ngannou likes to counterstrike. Gane utilizes a ton of feints. Who knows!

On a more serious note, Ngannou is pretty good at feinting a reaction to the feint. The Overeem final exchange was beautiful in this regard.

 

[StoneWT]

Grunt unintelligibly while being befuddled by Gane's vastly superior fight IQ. Lose a decision, talk about how he really won the fight, and get beaten by mediocre boxers as his career turns into a pile of sherdog.

He'll try to be patient Frank which will work for a bit ala Stipe 2, but his inner caveman brawler will come out if it goes into the latter half of the 2nd and/or if he takes significant damage.

If it goes to the 3rd, Frank loses guaranteed. Frank only wins if Gane makes the Stipe mistake of thinking he HAS to finish him. Just keep piling up the damage from basic strikes and let Frank gas himself.

 

[Shaddows]

We all know he is the guy who decapitates ppl with one punch, but how does he set that up vs the elusive and technical Gane??

Will he try and time a leg kick to throw a bomb over the top?
Will he come out from the opening bell like a bat out of hell and try to rush Cyril like he did Rosenstruik?
Will he try and be patient and try and time something in the later rounds?
Is there something you guys think he can capitalize on??

IMHO Option B is best for him.
Aggressive, cut space and Decapitate

 

[Franklin U.]

Footwork and punching Gane in face.

So pumped for this fight

 

[Bouboumaster]

Here's a little haiku

Frank stalk the frenchman
Corner him and punch head off
Soul fed to shadow

 

[spinup]

Here's a little haiku

Frank stalk the frenchman
Corner him and punch head off
Soul fed to shadow

Beautiful, I nearly cried. I want to buy the NFT.

 

[TheMMAnalyst]

Good stuff.
Although I disagree it will be a kickboxing match. I think both side will feel the need to bring some novelty to trump the knowledge their opponent has on them. So I see more a true mma fight with phases of clinch and level changes, to surprize and create uncertainty.

Ngannou is in a wrestling/GnP heavy gym and seem to have fallen in love with it and to be eager to show new things.
Gane since day 1 has been willing to take the fight absolutely everywhere, and I expect he will keep the same mindset.

The style match-up is a fast and technical out-fighter against a powerful blitzing counter-striker. In a title fight I don't see either guy deciding now is the time to showcase "other" skills that aren't truly fully developed. It's likely going to be about using what got you there and despite both guys having some other skills they never stray far from their true approach to fighting. This is also HW where wrestling is almost non-existent and a dangerous game to play, where you can't just force scrambles or attack subs from bottom without incredible risk.

I just don't see wrestling playing much of a factor at all - Gane could barely take down Rozenstruick and had trouble keeping him down. He's at his core a kickboxer and not a wrestler at all; it was the last element he added to his game and wrestling at HW is a whole different beast (there is only one guy that does it consistently well at the highest level, Curtis Blaydes, who was a national champion wrestler in college). What good is feinting level changes if your opponent knows you have no intention of shooting or that if you did shoot you'd get sprawled on and be trapped under a massive killing machine?

Just because Ngannou is working with Xtreme Couture and Erick Nicksick doesn't mean he is turning him into a wrestler - when have you seen Ngannou wrestle in the UFC? He's literally never shot for a takedown in open space, he hit one counter takedown on Stipe after he sprawled on him and spun around to his back for a moment (and he just let Stipe stand-up so he could smack him with hooks when he wasn't looking). Ngannou has built his entire game around overwhelming opponents with power shots while standing, why is he going to risk wasting a ton of energy to do something that isn't innate and doesn't compliment actually his game?

At most I could see Gane frustrating Ngannou with movement and set-ups from the outside and then using a reactive double if Ngannou over-extends on a blitz, but I still doubt that - it's just not in his fight nature from what we've seen, he will clinch or look to reset by moving away if you collapse the pocket rapidly on him. Being "willing" to take the fight anywhere is a dangerous gambit against the wrong opponent - when you are faster with your hands/feet, have better set-ups, more diverse attacks, ability to throw in combination and blend offense and defense it would seem pointless to try and prove you are capable of wrestling/grappling with Ngannou when you aren't a wrestler/grappler by background or nature.

In the clinch Gane will probably use it as a tactical reset position when he's can't use lateral movement or some type of duck-under to escape the pressure. Against Lewis he was very fast to hand-fight, circle and separate whenever this happened. Lewis was able to sloppily pressure him into the cage a couple times and Gane always either clinched/hand-fought/circled off the cage or did a tactical reset by running away until later in the fight when he had Lewis practically broken and was willing to fight in close.

Maybe my mind will get blown though and we'll see a HW version of Jeremy Stephens vs. Anthony Pettis, when a fast out-fighter and a powerful counter-striker decided to see who could out-wrestle the other. But I have my extreme doubts about that.

This immediately made me think of the Nunes game plan vs Cyborg. I think it's counterintuitive to think that Gane could put out Francis, and should even try, but if he can get Francis to swing wildly with emotion, he could definitely do that.

I think people doubt Gane's power because he doesn't sit down on his shots a lot, but the dude is lighting fast and actually does hit really hard. But he isn't willing to take one to give one until he thinks he has you broken/breaking down and will then press you and take chances like he did against Lewis or Volkov late. He's happy to just pepper away with shots and even though they don't look all that powerful his opponents clearly do not like it one bit. With Ngannou being so reckless at time with his blitzes Gane doesn't need to be throwing with huge power to hurt him, he just needs to bait the blitz and time the set-up. If Ngannou rushes forward throwing bombs and drops his left hand (like he frequently does) a quick right hook he never sees coming could certainly stumble him, if not set him on his ass.

Gane's style doesn't allow him to be a one-hitter quitter type, but if he builds up the attritional damage to the legs/body and starts walking Ngannou into heavy counters I would not be shocked to see him hurt Ngannou with a strike he doesn't see. Stipe landed a huge power shot on Ngannou right before getting put down simply because Ngannou doesn't have great defense when pressuring or blitzing. Gane can possibly land similar shots without going crazy and looking to finish immediately.

I think Gane has to do this ultimately, if he doesn't get respect from Ngannou when he does attempt his blitzes by timing him with counters he is going to eventually get stuck against the cage, which is not where you want to be against Ngannou. If there is one guy who can fight as a technical out-fighter at HW it's Gane, but Ngannou might be the one guy you can't do that against because it gives him too many opportunities to counter you or trap you against the cage.

Ladies and sherdoggers.. The best breakdown artist has spoken!



Thanks bud, I knew you’d bring it and that’s why I tagged ya. Hope all is good and well, take care!

Appreciate the shine buddy - definitely not the best! There are a ton of incredibly knowledgeable fight fans on this forum and if it wasn't for their incessant posting and love of the sport I wouldn't be as motivated to watch and analyze fights as I am.

Gotta put you on the spot though - who you ultimately picking to win and why?

 

[10000yearsold]

same as always, I imagine. slow pressure with occasional bursts.

could be a risky move, but mixing takedowns into the threat, if effective, could be as much a game changer as landing the death blow.