http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/05/business/economy/jobs-report.html?_r=1
Stole the stats from reddit
Some snippets of data from the BLS Report:
UNEMPLOYMENT RATES:
U3 (headline unemployment rate) ticked down 0.1 to 4.9%.
U4 (includes those who've given up looking for work) ticked down 0.1 point to 5.2%.
U5 (includes "marginally attached") ticked down 0.1 point to 5.9%.
U6 (includes part-timers who'd like to be full-time) ticked down 0.2 points to 9.5%.
LABOR FORCE DATA:
The number of people in the labor force decreased by 195k, to 159.7 million.
The overall labor participation rate ticked down 0.1 point to 62.8%.
The number of people
not in the labor force, but who want a job, decreased by 176k, to 5.91 million.
The number of people
not in the labor force, but who want and are available to work and have looked for a job in the last year, decreased 144k to 1.70 million.
The number of people not counted as unemployed because they dropped out of the workforce decreased by 66k, to 487k.
FULL- AND PART-TIME EMPLOYMENT:
The number of people employed full-time decreased 103k, to 124.2 million.
The number of people employed part-time increased 90k, to 27.7 million.
JOB GAINS/LOSSES:
Total nonfarm jobs increased by 161k, to 145.0 million.
Of these, 142k came from the private sector.
Federal jobs increased by 12k.
State government jobs increased by 3k.
Local government jobs increased by 4k.
HOURS AND WAGES:
Average hours worked was flat at 34.4 hours per week.
Average hourly wages rose $0.10 to $25.92/hr. This is 2.8% higher than a year ago.
Average weekly wages rose $3.44 to $891.65/week. This is 2.5% higher than a year ago.
Average hours of
nonsupervisors was flat at 33.6 per week.
Average hourly wages of
nonsupervisors rose $0.04 to $21.72/hr. This is 2.4% higher than a year ago.
Average weekly wages of
nonsupervisors rose $1.34, to $729.79/week. This is 2.1% higher than a year ago.
REVISIONS:
August's job numbers were revised up from +167k to +176k.
September's job numbers were revised up from +156k to +191k.
Together, this means that 44k more jobs were created in the last two months than previously estimated.
The government, delivering the last major snapshot of the economy before Election Day, reported on Friday that employers added 161,000 workers in October, a performance that suggested a healthy outlook for the months ahead.
The official unemployment rate dropped to 4.9 percent, from 5 percent. And average hourly earnings rose 2.8 percent year over year, a level not reached since 2008.
“It was pretty positive across the board,” said David Berson, chief economist at Nationwide Insurance, adding that “most importantly, we got a nice jump in average hourly earnings and that actually corresponds with other data.”
While the final weeks of the presidential campaign seemed to be preoccupied with everything but the economy,
Friday’s report from the Labor Department refocused attention — at least briefly — on the crucial bread-and-butter issue: jobs. For the candidates, the latest employment report serves as a Rorschach test, allowing each side to offer its own distinctive narrative of the economy’s performance and prospects.
As
Vincent Reinhart, chief economist at Standish Mellon, explained, “The main message is from the payroll report: Jobs are being created and earnings are going up.” But a report that goes “right down the middle of the fairway,” he added, “means you can spin it any way you want.”
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Donald J. Trump, who was propelled to the top of the Republican ticket in part by nagging economic anxiety and a surge in voter anger among the white working class, has emphasized the negatives.
He has argued that jobs have been disappearing, highlighting the continuing loss of well-paid manufacturing jobs as production moves to other countries. October’s report showed continued decline in that sector, with the loss of 9,000 jobs.
The Democratic candidate,
Hillary Clinton, by contrast, has emphasized the progress that President Obama made in digging the country out of the recession, pointing to the creation of roughly 15 million jobs since 2010.
The data on Friday also showed that more jobs were created in August and September than previously estimated. The revisions showed 44,000 more positions had been created, bringing the monthly average over the last three months to 176,000. Even more encouraging was the robust bump in wages, the most concrete sign that the labor market is tightening, and that ordinary workers are finally getting a slice of the rewards.
“This is money in the bank for workers feeling like they’ve been waiting a long time for this piece of the economic recovery puzzle to be added,” said Mark Hamrick,
Bankrate.com’s senior economic analyst.
Jed Kolko, chief economist at Indeed, a jobs listing website, noted that the economy “set three post-recession records this month.” Wage growth is at its strongest point; the employment-to-population ratio for prime age workers reached 78.2 percent, its highest level since 2008; and the broadest measure of employment, which includes discouraged and underemployed workers, fell to 9.5 percent.
“These are all signs that the labor market continues to strengthen and is at its strongest point since the crisis,” Mr. Kolko said.
More than seven years after the recession ended, employment gains have been remarkably steady, finally leading to a rise in earnings in the last couple of years. But overall economic growth has remained modest and despite the recent improvements, the recovery has failed to deliver to many Americans the sense of job security and steady advancement that traditionally girds the middle class.
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The type of jobs created is one reason. “Where we are creating jobs is in service areas, which are not as productive as manufacturing, and lower paying,” said Mr. Reinhart of Standish Mellon. “So we’ve got a problem.”
At the same time, many employers complain about a shortage of qualified workers.
“It has been tough to hire good people,” especially near cities like Baltimore, Washington and Philadelphia, said Scott Nash, the founder and chief executive of
Mom’s Organic Market, which operates 17 grocery stores between Virginia and New Jersey and employs more than 1,000 people. Mr. Nash offers a starting wage of $12 an hour, significantly above the mandated minimums in the areas where his stores are. He said he planned to hire an additional 200 workers, from cashiers to managers, over the next 12 months.
As the recession has receded,
the definition of what economists consider a strong or weak employment report has shifted. So what now should be considered normal growth?
Last month,
when the government reported that in September, 156,000 additional jobs were created and the unemployment rate was 5 percent, Mr. Trump labeled it “terrible.” By contrast, some members of the Federal Reserve Board argue that the labor market is already close to the goal-post — the lowest level of unemployment that a healthy economy can sustain without igniting inflation.
Taking into account population growth and an aging work force, economists at the
San Francisco Fed estimated the “break-even” point — growth that is sufficient to keep the jobless rate from rising — now ranges from 50,000 to 110,000 jobs a month. Additional jobs would most likely push the unemployment rate further down, while fewer could lift it.
Record low participation rates in the labor force, however, suggest that a sizable number of people might be lured back into the work force for the right job at the right wage.
Ian Siegel, chief executive of
ZipRecruiter, which distributes job postings primarily from small and midsize businesses, said he saw a substantial jump in listings last month.
“There are more middle-skill jobs at higher salaries,” Mr. Siegel said. His assumption is that rather than seeking talent at the top of the skills ladder, employers are increasingly willing to train new employees. “It’s a great time to be a job seeker,” he said.
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ZipRecruiter defines middle-skilled jobs as those that require vocational training, related on-the-job experience or an associate degree.
Mr. Siegel also expects to see a large upswing in temporary hiring of low-skilled workers by retailers and related industries, like parcel delivery, as businesses gear up for the holiday season.
Uncommon Goods, an online retailer located in Brooklyn, plans to add hundreds of temporary employees to its 170-person work force by the end of the year, said Dave Bolotsky, the founder and chief executive. Over the next year, he expects to create 20 to 30 full-time positions, with a starting wage of $14 an hour. “If you can pay above market rate, it’s a sign of appreciation or respect,” said Mr. Bolotsky, who supports an increase in the mandated minimum wage.
As for high-skilled workers, Tara Sinclair, an economist at Indeed, noticed a decline in postings for technology jobs, a closely watched sector that makes up a relatively small portion of the overall labor market.
“It seems there’s a little bit more caution that what we were seeing nine months ago,” Ms. Sinclair said. “For a while every company needed a data scientist, thinking ‘I don’t know what it is, but I want one.’ Now they may be asking ‘What is going to be the business value of hiring these people?’”
This week, the
Fed announced it was once again holding off on any increase in its benchmark interest rate, but indicated a December bump was likely. In its statement, the policy-making committee noted that inflation still remained below the target long-run goal of 2 percent annual growth.
Ted Wieseman, an economist at Morgan Stanley, noted the employment picture showed plenty of signs of resilience. “Unemployed workers have been dropping out of the labor force in smaller numbers, and there’s been a pickup in formerly discouraged workers starting to look for work again,” he said in his employment report preview. The rate of workers being fired has also remained low this year.
