UFN 156 on ESPN+ 14 Shevchenko vs Carmouche II

[Kyle Stephens]

I just want to say that I am a Mike Perry fan and I badly want to see him win. If he beats Luque that will be, hands down, his best win in his whole career. His next fight will be main event for sure. IF he wins, tho. Vicente is not exactly safety first fighter. He likes to bang a little. Perry struggles if you move your feet and avoid the pocket. I have my hopes for this fight. You never know...
Platinum Bless

 

[lifeisgood12345]

I can get behind this reasoning. Luque hasn't really shown a stick n move strategy like how Ponz and Jouban beat Perry. I think Perry has been fighting the harder competition as well. Don't think Luques wins have aged well. Laprise having gone on to get one punch ko'd by the shitty Lima bro, Barb getting stopped by Brown, Turner having a weak chin etc. Hate to grade on a curve since Luque utterly stomped these guys while Perry is getting rolled by top10 talent too.

It's crazy to say that Luque's best win at this point is Niko Price

Perry has a great chin too...he can bang with Luque. Think this fight will probably look similar to Barb vs Luque.

I won't bet platinum perry bc he's just too dumb for me to cope...but at the very least I am going to not degen money away on luque.

 

[Deleted member 560591]

I can get behind this reasoning. Luque hasn't really shown a stick n move strategy like how Ponz and Jouban beat Perry. I think Perry has been fighting the harder competition as well. Don't think Luques wins have aged well. Laprise having gone on to get one punch ko'd by the shitty Lima bro, Barb getting stopped by Brown, Turner having a weak chin etc. Hate to grade on a curve since Luque utterly stomped these guys while Perry is getting rolled by top10 talent too.

- knocked out Belal who is very durable and a top 20 guy
- beat Niko Price comfortably (we saw how Neal struggled recently. Niko is similar to Perry actually lol)
- first to ko Barberena (it’s easy to belittle his win because Bryan got ko‘d after that but it’s obvious that the war against Vicente took a lot from his durability. Some fighters are never the same after those type of wars. If you want to go by that logic, Leon Edwards almost got finished by Barberena. No one had easy fights with him before.)
- had a very competitive fight with Leon

Vicente showed a lot of heart. He is not some can crusher who never faced adversity or decent competition. Steadily he is progressing and stepping up showing more than brute power. Perry was in his position and stumbled after those KO wins.

Mike Perry has lost to "top 10 talent“ like Max Griffin & Alan Jouban. Not only losing but getting outclassed for the majority of those fights and getting dropped. Let’s not act like he only gets beaten by the best.
Take his split win against one handed Felder at 170 & Cowboy away and you are left with wins against Jake Ellenberger, Alex Reyes, Lim & Danny Roberts. His loss to Ponz is probably his best fight. Other than he is always the same fighter. That Cowboy Oliveira win was not impressive imo. Cowboy wins that fight with 5% more fight IQ lol.

 

[Naught2Sixty]

- knocked out Belal who is very durable and a top 20 guy
- beat Niko Price comfortably (we saw how Neal struggled recently. Niko is similar to Perry actually lol)
- first to ko Barberena (it’s easy to belittle his win because Bryan got ko‘d after that but it’s obvious that the war against Vicente took a lot from his durability. Some fighters are never the same after those type of wars. If you want to go by that logic, Leon Edwards almost got finished by Barberena. No one had easy fights with him before.)
- had a very competitive fight with Leon

Vicente showed a lot of heart. He is not some can crusher who never faced adversity or decent competition. Steadily he is progressing and stepping up showing more than brute power. Perry was in his position and stumbled after those KO wins.

Mike Perry has lost to "top 10 talent“ like Max Griffin & Alan Jouban. Not only losing but getting outclassed for the majority of those fights and getting dropped. Let’s not act like he only gets beaten by the best.
Take his split win against one handed Felder at 170 & Cowboy away and you are left with wins against Jake Ellenberger, Alex Reyes, Lim & Danny Roberts. His loss to Ponz is probably his best fight. Other than he is always the same fighter. That Cowboy Oliveira win was not impressive imo. Cowboy wins that fight with 5% more fight IQ lol.

Fair enough.

 

[longway]

Perry needs to throw combinations to get Vicente in trouble.

Luque hasn't really shown a stick n move strategy like how Ponz and Jouban beat Perry.

He is not some can crusher who never faced adversity or decent competition.

I think I need to watch a little more, but Perry has decent volume, he is not a low output guy and there is no questioning his cardio or heart. And I don't agree that you need to land combinations to get Luque in trouble, Barberena was touching him with every punch, and Luque made no effort to defend. If Luque has a gameplan then these odds make sense, as everyone who has beaten Perry (outside Cerrone) has utilised the same gameplan but if he is just going to brawl, how can anyone play these odds? Oliviera lost bc he brawled with Perry.

 

[theTKDguy]

I don't see any bettable favorites on this card, even Viera, Oskar’s cardio is bad, but assuming Viera is off the acai berry juice, how will he hold up if he doesn’t get a sub in R1?

I have bet only on plus odd fighters on this card. Of those the 2 i want to bring up are latifi at +135 and Perry at +190. I think this is a bad match up for Oezdemir. His Ko power declines considerably outside the first 3 minutes of R1, i think its either a r1 ko for him, or he will lose, most likely by gnp in r3. I just cant see why he is the favourite. Latifi is defensively minded and will not shoot blindly, his style gives him a good chance here. Who is on Oezdemir and why?

I watched luque v barberena and those 2 just dngaf about defence, it was fun, but in a brawl, i like perry, his power equal to luque at least, and his chin is better imo, and in his last fight he had his hands up, had some head movement and was clearly thinking about setting up opportunities implement his striking.

The blueprint to beat perry is to use length and movement, is there any fight where luque has implemented this gameplan? I only taped his fight against barberena, has anyone got any recommendations on his other fights?

tbh i wouldn't say perry's chin is better, he has been rocked a ton of times. i do think he's got better cardio than luque . don't think it'll matter much, the gap in striking technique is considerable and luque will likely put him away early. could get interesting if they wrestle.

wouldn't blame anyone if the bet mike tho, he's got a decent chance. as some have said, luque likes to brawl and eats his fair share of punches, so perry has a chance to land sth big. he's got heart too, so i think he's a good dog for the right price

 

[Deleted member 560591]

I think I need to watch a little more, but Perry has decent volume, he is not a low output guy and there is no questioning his cardio or heart. And I don't agree that you need to land combinations to get Luque in trouble, Barberena was touching him with every punch, and Luque made no effort to defend. If Luque has a gameplan then these odds make sense, as everyone who has beaten Perry (outside Cerrone) has utilised the same gameplan but if he is just going to brawl, how can anyone play these odds? Oliviera lost bc he brawled with Perry.

Perry waits for one big punch. He doesn’t have a jab or anything similar to set things up. His clinch game is good though. Barberena touched Vicente constantly but also ate a insane number of bombs while doing that. Can Perry take those shots ?I doubt it. Vicente threw everything he had until he slowed down but still found a way to finish. Barberena sacrificed his chin in that fight lol. I don’t think Perry can just land one big punch and win this one. That’s why I believe he needs combos like Barberena. The follow ups need to land. Constant pressure and volume. Not plodding and eating strikes.

Oliveira lost because he doesn’t manage his cardio well and just does Cowboy things like throwing spinning kicks out of nowhere and pushing too hard lol.

 

[Deleted member 560591]

The worst case scenario to me is Vicente brawling and even then I can see him winning lol.

The line is at a right price imo.

 

[Omni1]

Striking gap between Oskar and Vieiria worry anyone?

If Vieira can not take him down then I will be worried. Piechota got subbed vs Meerschaert because he took Meerschaert to the ground. He thought his jits was good enough to not get subbed. If I remember correctly one main reason why he got subbed was the damage suffered by strikes. Another thing to consider is that a majority of UFC first timers lose.

 

[Sadistics]

If Vieira can not take him down then I will be worried. Piechota got subbed vs Meerschaert because he took Meerschaert to the ground. He thought his jits was good enough to not get subbed. If I remember correctly one main reason why he got subbed was the damage suffered by strikes. Another thing to consider is that a majority of UFC first timers lose.

It was more of a cardio issue, Piechota dominated rd1 and had nothing left.

 

[Deleted member 560591]

Lastly Barberena had most of his success from the southpaw stance when he landed the left hand that dropped Vicente. He struggled a bit with that and switched stances. This problem won’t be there against Perry.

I think I have to give Mike the cardio advantage though. It could look like the Cowboy fight where he got rocked in the first but was able to take over in the second & third round.

 

[Wiktoruspro]

Any opinions on Paiva vs Bontorin fight ?
I give stand up edge to Paiva, he showed also quite nice tdd and get ups, Bontorin has clearly the grappling advantage.

 

[piglord]

picks are up good luck everyone.

 

[BigSteve]

Im thinking Gutierrez at dog money is a solid bet. De Freitas has 4inches longer reach but nowhere near as polished with the striking. He is also not as good of a wrestler. Gutierrez is crazy fluid, with great footwork. Only fault being low output.

Anyone know if Gutierrez fought a really aggressive fighter with average takedowns before? Would like to see how he his counter game is. Otherwise he could lose based on activity. He could also low calf kick De Freitas leg clean off lol.

 

[longway]

The worst case scenario to me is Vicente brawling and even then I can see him winning lol.

The line is at a right price imo.

I watched more tape, and I still think people are sleeping on Perry, assuming that Luque plays his usual game. What I do think is a real possibility, and hopefully, a juicy line is a Luque sub.

 

[Deleted member 560591]

Rewatched the Perry fights again and I notice something.

Ponz hurt him with a left hook, Griffin dropped him with a left hand, Roberts landed a ton of left hands, Jouban hurt and dropped him with the left. Luque can switch stances easily. Santiago is the most important one here because he landed the following left hook after the right hand. Perry keeps his hands lower and tries to move his head. He may dodge the first punch but Vicente has a murderous left hook.

Vicente on the other hand doesn’t move his head much but he keeps a tight guard and I believe he can block Perry‘s singular shots and move away or counter. People say Perry evolved and got more technical but he just throws less and sits back more.

He also struggles when he has to close the distance against opponents with big reach. Vicente has a 5 inch reach advantage here.

 

[trident]

First round of props are out

 

[longway]

Rewatched the Perry fights again and I notice something.

Ponz hurt him with a left hook, Griffin dropped him with a left hand, Roberts landed a ton of left hands, Jouban hurt and dropped him with the left. Luque can switch stances easily. Santiago is the most important one here because he landed the following left hook after the right hand. Perry keeps his hands lower and tries to move his head. He may dodge the first punch but Vicente has a murderous left hook.

Vicente on the other hand doesn’t move his head much but he keeps a tight guard and I believe he can block Perry‘s singular shots and move away or counter. People say Perry evolved and got more technical but he just throws less and sits back more.

He also struggles when he has to close the distance against opponents with big reach. Vicente has a 5 inch reach advantage here.

I'm not saying that Perry is a sure thing, but if Luque doesn't use his length and employ a lot of movement and plays his usual game, the odds don't make sense. In the Ponzi fight, it was Ponzi's low leg kicks and jab that set up his striking, Luque has both, but there is a reason why Ponzi stayed on the outside as much as he could, and even then Perry came close plenty of times, he won the first round too. He has also stopped loading up on his right hand all the time, so his guard is better now. TBH I think Luque will use his ground game at some point.

 

[edole]

Chris Gutierrez opened at -190 on 5dimes over Geraldo de Freitas.

He is currently sitting at +120.

Why?????

 

[Deleted member 560591]

I'm not saying that Perry is a sure thing, but if Luque doesn't use his length and employ a lot of movement and plays his usual game, the odds don't make sense. In the Ponzi fight, it was Ponzi's low leg kicks and jab that set up his striking, Luque has both, but there is a reason why Ponzi stayed on the outside as much as he could, and even then Perry came close plenty of times, he won the first round too. He has also stopped loading up on his right hand all the time, so his guard is better now. TBH I think Luque will use his ground game at some point.

I think Vicente wins at least 70% of the time, so the line is accurate imo.