UFN 156 on ESPN+ 14 Shevchenko vs Carmouche II

Who's in for a unit on Pessoa? In the fights I watched Gane looks a lot more fluid and patient but BBzao as a 9-0 heavyweight at +310 is worth a punt. Especially when its striker vs striker.

BBzao holds his chin up in the air way too much and Gane loves his overhand right but I still can't resist.

I think this is a set up fight for Gane and he gets a finish quickly
 
I think this is a set up fight for Gane and he gets a finish quickly
Agreed. He is a freak athlete. I still question his experience to demand such a price. 14 Muay Thai and 3 mma fights isn't a lot.

On the positive Pessoa has a bit of cardio for a heavyweight and Cyril is very muscle bound. Plus those nervous jittery style brawlers like Pessoa are my least favorite to spar because you know 100% someone is going to get hurt.

He prob gets cleaned out in 30 seconds but I'm in for a small punt
 
I looked at some Carmouche tape today. Earlier I expressed concerns about betting on Shevchenko as a big favourite... I still don't think that betting -1000 or whatever is in any way, shape or form smart, but jeez... Carmouche has limited toolkit and to make matters worse - she does not have high fight IQ or at least some crazy pace to make up for lack of technique. Even with her very tempting odds, the feel I am getting is throwing money out the window. She is not gonna fight for my money, and even if she wants to, she doesn't have the tools to do it. To add more negatives she is not even a big 125-er. She is thickly muscled - yes, but she is not big at all for the weightclass, she is average or below average size 125er IMO.

The only positive thing I got from watching her is that I am 80% sure this fight is going the distance and I feel the odds for that will be juicy. Shev is not going to knock her out - I think this is obvious. Liz is too conservative on her feet and she has good reaction time, she is a good athlete. Finishing Liz on the ground with some slick sub is more what I expect from Shevchenko. Liz is too confident there and puts herself in bad positions and she lost by sub a couple of times before.

I hate Shevchenko with white hot hate, and nothing will make me happyer than seeing her losing, but reality is that she is very, very good and a just average fighter is not going to beat her.
 
I looked at some Carmouche tape today. Earlier I expressed concerns about betting on Shevchenko as a big favourite... I still don't think that betting -1000 or whatever is in any way, shape or form smart, but jeez... Carmouche has limited toolkit and to make matters worse - she does not have high fight IQ or at least some crazy pace to make up for lack of technique. Even with her very tempting odds, the feel I am getting is throwing money out the window. She is not gonna fight for my money, and even if she wants to, she doesn't have the tools to do it. To add more negatives she is not even a big 125-er. She is thickly muscled - yes, but she is not big at all for the weightclass, she is average or below average size 125er IMO.

The only positive thing I got from watching her is that I am 80% sure this fight is going the distance and I feel the odds for that will be juicy. Shev is not going to knock her out - I think this is obvious. Liz is too conservative on her feet and she has good reaction time, she is a good athlete. Finishing Liz on the ground with some slick sub is more what I expect from Shevchenko. Liz is too confident there and puts herself in bad positions and she lost by sub a couple of times before.

I hate Shevchenko with white hot hate, and nothing will make me happyer than seeing her losing, but reality is that she is very, very good and a just average fighter is not going to beat her.
Completely agree. Valentina via dec or sub are the most likely outcomes by faaaaar. Really doubt she ko's liz, as you said, she is very conservative and won't present many openings for val.

No tape i really like staropoli at those odds, tecia and luque are good too. Would like to fade my fellow peruvians bandenay and barzola who looked terrible in their last fight and honestly don't think very highly of (especially bandenay) but need to watch moffet and garagorri. Barzola at ATT has regressed imho, he now thinks he's a technical striker but he's really a meat and potatoes wrestler.
 
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Keep your eyes on Rodolfo Viera, he is supposed to be Jacare 2.0.

At the mere age of 29 he's won the mundials like 5-6 times among other things and is 100-9 w/l in grappling.
He is primarly known for his Judo throws and heavy top control/aggressive guard passing, a BJJ style very suited for MMA.

Currently he is -175 @ bet365 not the best line but im thinking about hittin sub/tko r1 or just sub.
His opponent: Oskar Piechota got submitted in his last fight by Gerald Meerschaert.
Which makes me more confident about Rodolfo, Although i admitt i have never actually seen Oskar fight yet so im just basing this on stuff i got on paper.


Also did i mention he is (most likely) on dat brazilian acai diet?

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Keep your eyes on Rodolfo Viera, he is supposed to be Jacare 2.0.

At the mere age of 29 he's won the mundials like 5-6 times among other things and is 100-9 w/l in grappling.
He is primarly known for his Judo throws and heavy top control/aggressive guard passing, a BJJ style very suited for MMA.

Currently he is -175 @ bet365 not the best line but im thinking about hittin sub/tko r1 or just sub.
His opponent: Oskar Piechota got submitted in his last fight by Gerald Meerschaert.
Which makes me more confident about Rodolfo, Although i admitt i have never actually seen Oskar fight yet so im just basing this on stuff i got on paper.


Also did i mention he is (most likely) on dat brazilian acai diet?

maxresdefault.jpg

That’s some fine wiki capping, bro
 
That’s some fine wiki capping, bro
im just layin da smack down, Gotta sell some wolf tickets to get the ball Rolling. Nobody talking about him so far. He is like the brazilian Romero.
 
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Keep your eyes on Rodolfo Viera, he is supposed to be Jacare 2.0.

At the mere age of 29 he's won the mundials like 5-6 times among other things and is 100-9 w/l in grappling.
He is primarly known for his Judo throws and heavy top control/aggressive guard passing, a BJJ style very suited for MMA.

Currently he is -175 @ bet365 not the best line but im thinking about hittin sub/tko r1 or just sub.
His opponent: Oskar Piechota got submitted in his last fight by Gerald Meerschaert.
Which makes me more confident about Rodolfo, Although i admitt i have never actually seen Oskar fight yet so im just basing this on stuff i got on paper.


Also did i mention he is (most likely) on dat brazilian acai diet?

maxresdefault.jpg
Oh, I’m sure he’s on those açaí supplements. lol
Beyond that, he’s an absolute BJJ legend and should sub Piechota
 
Oh, I’m sure he’s on those açaí supplements. lol
Beyond that, he’s an absolute BJJ legend and should sub Piechota

What's his stand up like? How's his clinch game? What does Piechota do well? How's his TDD? Does either guy gas? What's their respective level of competition been like? Does either guy have any recurring injuries? Come on Brah
 
I think that Mike Perry is constantly improving, he's adding new tools each fight and has shown a more controlled and cautious approach his past few. Clearly he's been working on his grappling, wrestling and ground game and wants to show it off. He's tough and will stay in the fight until the end, never been finished by strikes. He's got big power, his left hook isn't to be played with with. He's strong too, going for those 'all muscle no technique pick you up over his head and dump you take downs', the down side of that is he some how seems to still end up on the bottom. All brawn no finesse. Surprisingly his gas tank holds out, especially now he is fighting a more controlled style, but he is usually still the guy pushing forward. I think the threat of his power makes people back up, he was able to walk Felder and Brazlillian Cowboy to the cage repetedly and he cuts it off well, he doesn't just follow like so many guys seem to. Perry seems to win fights either with one big knock out strike, but they have came mostly against fading KO machines like Ellenburger. The other way he wins, like the Olivera and Felder wins, come through attrition, just staying in their face and on them none stop and gutting it out, its not a bad pressure game but he takes all most as much damage as he gives in the process leading to close decisions. Plus Felder broke his arm early in their fight and still took him to a split, plus a bad cut probably also swayed judges.

But, he's fighting Luque, who isn't likely to back away from the power. Luque will bang with Mike and has just as much power matched with much better technique. He held his own against Leon Edward's in all areas of the fight and took the first round from him, showing he is a very well rounded fighter too. His sub game is sharp and he's very quick to jump on an advantages position when they are presented, gets to the back and finds position and submission quickly. Looked like he was seconds away from twisting Bam Bam's head clean off in the first. If Perry decides he wants to test his new skills, like he tried against Donald Cerrone I think he will get a similar result.

A believe in a pure style vs style fight Luque beats Perry everywhere. The better boxing, sharp low kicks, strong and tricky in the clinch, a superior ground game. He also has the height and reach advantage, and at the same age and being in good camps respectively we can expect a similar level of improvement from fight to fight from both guys.

Where I question Luque is his gas tank, he visibly slows down after round one, which could be a pacing issue, he generally goes hard in round one and it's not often people survive it, but when they do the fight gets a lot tougher for Luque from there. Bam Bam made it out of round one and gave him a tough fight from there. Although I do think Bam Bam's performance has been over rated, other than a brief knock down he never really had Luque in any trouble he did make it a scrappy 2 rounds. Leon Edward's survived the first and managed to take control in large parts in the following rounds, still a competitive fight through out but Edwards showed the better has tank and an over all more well rounded game and Luque was unable to mount any really come back attempt. Again, I am sure the gas tank played apart, but it was also due to just how good Leon is.

Perry is plodding at times, just walking forward into the next exchange, or looking to get into the clinch. One of his best weapons is his elbows on the break, which he may have opportunity for if he can corner Luque. I don't see that being likely though, this fight should mostly take place in boxing range.

Perry might have the his moments and land the odd decent shot, but over all Luque is a step or two ahead everywhere and will beat Perry up over the course of the fight. I don't see a finish by strikes for Luque, Perry is just tough enough to take it. Decision or possibly a sub is my prediction.
 
im just layin da smack down, nobody talking about him so far. He is like the brazilian Romero.
He's a BJJ legend, not a wrestler, so Jacaré would probably be a more apt comparison. He also trains at Fusion Xcel in Florida with Jacaré, who apparently helped him make the transition to MMA.

Piechota took such a beating in the second round against GM3 that he was basically unconscious by the time he got choked out. So, as a submission loss, it's not really that relevant to the upcoming fight against Rodolfo Viera.

Piechota appears to be a pretty big step up in competition for Rodolfo. But he looks good IMO, good movement and looks very very heavy in top position.

Anyone have any leans on this fight yet? I'm quite interested in seeing what Rodolfo by first round sub will open at. Maybe it will be possible to hedge with Piechota ML.
 
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On another note: a lot of perfect records waiting to get stained on this card. Made some nice $ on Aspen Ladd getting handed her first loss. Now, who will be the next to fall?
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Anyone think Gabriel Benitez can threaten Yuseff? It's going to be a mostly standing affair. Has Yuseff's cardio been tested?
 
Wasn't able to find a full video of Rodolfos 3 rounder vs 2-3 Rakchal, but here's most of it split into different parts.






(5:25 - 7:05)
 
Question:

Will Chris Gutierrez be able to stuff de Freita's takedown attempts?
 
What's his stand up like? How's his clinch game? What does Piechota do well? How's his TDD? Does either guy gas? What's their respective level of competition been like? Does either guy have any recurring injuries? Come on Brah
His standup is... not good. Watch his Rakchal fight, where an actual bum was giving him trouble on the feet. Also struggled with getting takedowns, which is to be expected from someone who had just transitioned from pure BJJ. He can’t rely as much on judo throws since there is no gi to grab.

That was in 2017 though, and his wrestling improved a lot since then. His standup should be better, but there’s no way to know for sure since he’s subbed everyone else early into the first round. He’s got a solid camp at ATT (afaik. At least that’s where he trained back in the Rakchal fight) though and should be much improved. His first 4 fights were all cans, but in his last fight, he took down Nemchinov (who’s is fairly solid (some of his fights are on youtube)) and subbed him under 2 min.

Haven’t taped Piechota yet but from what I remember (so don’t trust me lol), he looked pretty good against Wilson and GM3 (in the first round at least). Haven’t seen any other fights of his. He looked bad against GM3 though, which isn’t a good look. Can’t remember if he gassed or not... Will get back to you once I have time.
 
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