UFN 156 on ESPN+ 14 Shevchenko vs Carmouche II

[Gugabe]

Is Garagorri not a steal at evens? Hometown guy, dynamic and powerful striker, good ground game, undefeated against a mix of cans and decent fighters.

I maintain that Bandenay is pretty terrible. Sorta pillow-fisted on the feet, just spams a lot of kicks, questionable cardio, gets subbed a lot. Thought he was instant fade material coming into the UFC, but won his debut hitting a good knee that was intended as a kick, so here he is. Lost his last fight to Austin Arnett, imo one of the worst fighters in the division, who 10-8'd him in their third round. This seems like the easiest bet on the card for me unless someone can convince me otherwise.

What decent fighters? It's all on the Uruguayan circuit. 7-2 on the Urugayan circuit doesn't make somebody not a can.

Don't take a dude as a favorite on debut when they haven't even been fighting third tier competition. Bandenay is bad by UFC standards, but he'll still be the best guy Gara has fought by a massive margin.

 

[Soccer Steve]

Theres a lot of assumptions in that post. Either way congrats on winning those bets on "guys [youve] never heard of before". Please tell me more about how i should be, and how you are great!

"Before last week" you left out. Then some research and hearing other opinions and enter: Omar Morales +2xx. Sweet deal.

I truly do not understand what your last sentence means.

All I'm saying is that people coming onto a betting forum and complaining about additional opportunities to bet is bizarre.

 

[PinkFlammingo]

"Before last week" you left out. Then some research and hearing other opinions and enter: Omar Morales +2xx. Sweet deal.

I truly do not understand what your last sentence means.

All I'm saying is that people coming onto a betting forum and complaining about additional opportunities to bet is bizarre.

Where did I complain?

Edit: i double quoted you accidentally

 

[Soccer Steve]

Where did I complain?

Edit: i double quoted you accidentally

Ok, you're thinly veiled, tongue in cheek original question. Not a complaint, I guess.
Anyways, no worries, I'm not interested in a thing or whatever. Good luck to you.

 

[PinkFlammingo]

Ok, you're thinly veiled, tongue in cheek original question. Not a complaint, I guess.
Anyways, no worries, I'm not interested in a thing or whatever. Good luck to you.

You confirmed the same thing i said lol.

Good luck on your bets

 

[weedreference]

The era of loaded-to-the-gills cards is over. The sooner the nostalgic among us come to terms with this, the better for them. Clay Guida and Jim Miller were the co-main event last weekend. That's the UFC we get now. If you need name-value cards, then you may as well come back for UFC 300 and skip anything in between.
Last night, on Dana White's personal voyeur fetish show, I made a killing betting on guys I'd never heard of before last week. Opportunity and value is all around us, more than it ever has been before. It's a bettor's wet dream era right now - dozens of books and numerous fighting orgs. Fuck, GDR-Ladd just headlined an event - much to the casual's chagrin - and it was one of the greatest betting lines I've ever seen.
This is a betting forum. Saying things like "this card sucks" or "who are these fighters" simply doesn't belong here. And, frankly, it doesn't make any sense.

The lines have been pretty strong recently. The Kalikas era was definitely much weaker, especially with respect to over/unders (where it would be rare for an over to be more juiced than -220, even in WMMA). With respect to moneylines, the market is smarter now, and even people desperate enough to hit the heavily limited openers are correcting the lines pretty accurately.

It's a great era for having a ton of fights, but it's not a great era for degens like myself who want to bet on every fight.

 

[Sauna]

Sup playas.

I got Macedo at + money and I got a chance get Polyana too at + money too soooo, should I take just because of free money or ride it out with my original pick?

 

[Gugabe]

Sup playas.

I got Macedo at + money and I got a chance get Polyana too at + money too soooo, should I take just because of free money or ride it out with my original pick?

IMO just take the arb. I got Macedo at +170 and I think it's a scrappy coinflip

 

[NorthernLights]

The era of loaded-to-the-gills cards is over. The sooner the nostalgic among us come to terms with this, the better for them. Clay Guida and Jim Miller were the co-main event last weekend. That's the UFC we get now. If you need name-value cards, then you may as well come back for UFC 300 and skip anything in between.
Last night, on Dana White's personal voyeur fetish show, I made a killing betting on guys I'd never heard of before last week. Opportunity and value is all around us, more than it ever has been before. It's a bettor's wet dream era right now - dozens of books and numerous fighting orgs. Fuck, GDR-Ladd just headlined an event - much to the casual's chagrin - and it was one of the greatest betting lines I've ever seen.
This is a betting forum. Saying things like "this card sucks" or "who are these fighters" simply doesn't belong here. And, frankly, it doesn't make any sense.

I can only speak for myself but I'm way more interested in the actual quality of the fights than the betting aspect. I value my time too much to sit through hours of shit fights just because there might be value to be had betting on them. That would 100 % ruin my interest in MMA. But I should also add that I rarely think that a UFC card sucks.

 

[Wiktoruspro]

I think I will bet this Poliana Vianna, Macedo is just bbc material and a bum fighter

 

[Gugabe]

Garagorri been running through some absolute killers lately.

 

[Red_2]

Garagorri been running through some absolute killers lately.

Wow. That is painful to watch. What's more painful is, people will watch this and auto-bet his opponent.

 

[PolarBearPaulVarelans]

I can only speak for myself but I'm way more interested in the actual quality of the fights than the betting aspect. I value my time too much to sit through hours of shit fights just because there might be value to be had betting on them. That would 100 % ruin my interest in MMA. But I should also add that I rarely think that a UFC card sucks.

This.

Many of us were/are huge fans of MMA long before we ever decided to bet on it. Hell, for many of us, MMA is far from the most profitable use of our time. Personally, I would make more money spending those hours working more hours at my job, or doing consultancy work rather than betting on MMA, and with zero risk of losing my money.

It is in many ways a labor of love. Personally, I can't imagine scrutinizing tape, taking meticulous notes, rewinding parts of fights, and watching them multiple times without really loving MMA. Otherwise, it would be pure torture.

Thus, for us it's depressing to see the kind of shit cards the UFC is putting out these days.

 

[theTKDguy]

Sup playas.

I got Macedo at + money and I got a chance get Polyana too at + money too soooo, should I take just because of free money or ride it out with my original pick?

Free money bro. low level Wmma isn't worth it most of the times. Think macedo wins but wouldn't bet

 

[Monster Meat]

Sup playas.

I got Macedo at + money and I got a chance get Polyana too at + money too soooo, should I take just because of free money or ride it out with my original pick?

Always take guaranteed money when you can get it.

 

[theTKDguy]

Regarding bandenay vs garragori, anybody likes FDGTD? Don't know the price but i'm interested.

 

[trident]

Regarding bandenay vs garragori, anybody likes FDGTD? Don't know the price but i'm interested.

-245

 

[Naught2Sixty]

Deep thots on ESPN+ 14 by Naught2Sixty:

Going from top to bottom...

Shev/Girlilla (GET IT?!)

I think Shev will win very clearly but more competitively than -1200 suggests. To dumb it down a bit I divide an mma fight in 4 phases. Kick, boxing, clinch and ground. I think Shev has a very clear speed and technique advantage in kick, box and ground but I think Liz will have quite of few moments of cage grinding success being very physical. Ultimately there's no value in -12xx and good luck taking a guess whether Bullet finishes or not. Pass.

Platinum Mike/My boy Luque



Luque is the superior technician and rightful favorite. Squeaky clean boxing, razor sharp counters, decent wrestling, good front headlock position/chokes, good chin (no chin is immune to strikes tho). Perry stands a punchers chance obviously and I actually think he's the more dangerous guy in the clinch. The pick is Luque obviously but I would be scared jaying juice on him in this spot. I got a bad feeling. Trust your instincts. Idk why fdngtd has dropped back to -195 should be closer to -300. That's my value spot.

Humberto/lone uraguain guy

Wouldn't trust Bandenay to make me an over medium egg let aloooooone fight for my money and I know zero about the other dude so...see above.

No time/Centaur

I'd be concerned that Latifi could replicate the Kelly Anundson gameplan if...

1. It hadn't been 5 years since then.
2. If Latifi hadn't been plagued by a back injury and had more than 7 minutes of conditioning

Value on Ooz. Younger, better at range, taller (who isnt), slightly better cardio I guess.

 

[Broe.]

Always take guaranteed money when you can get it.

Yes especially when its 10 bucks

 

[theTKDguy]

-245

F