UFN 156 on ESPN+ 14 Shevchenko vs Carmouche II

[PolarBearPaulVarelans]

Macedo dropping from +170 to -115 might actually be a blessing in disguise. Wasn't excited about having to bet her, even against the likes of Polyana Viana, and now, I won't have to.

 

[rev0lver]

Is Garagorri not a steal at evens? Hometown guy, dynamic and powerful striker, good ground game, undefeated against a mix of cans and decent fighters.

I maintain that Bandenay is pretty terrible. Sorta pillow-fisted on the feet, just spams a lot of kicks, questionable cardio, gets subbed a lot. Thought he was instant fade material coming into the UFC, but won his debut hitting a good knee that was intended as a kick, so here he is. Lost his last fight to Austin Arnett, imo one of the worst fighters in the division, who 10-8'd him in their third round. This seems like the easiest bet on the card for me unless someone can convince me otherwise.

 

[Jordan3399]

Is Garagorri not a steal at evens? Hometown guy, dynamic and powerful striker, good ground game, undefeated against a mix of cans and decent fighters.

I maintain that Bandenay is pretty terrible. Sorta pillow-fisted on the feet, just spams a lot of kicks, questionable cardio, gets subbed a lot. Thought he was instant fade material coming into the UFC, but won his debut hitting a good knee that was intended as a kick, so here he is. Lost his last fight to Austin Arnett, imo one of the worst fighters in the division, who 10-8'd him in their third round. This seems like the easiest bet on the card for me unless someone can convince me otherwise.

Wasn't overly impressed by footage of Garagorri at least not what I found, making his debut as well which often results in subpar performances. Bandenay more experienced as it is but only 24 and having spent a bit more time at a decent team with Oyama now could make him shot some solid improvements. Think you can make an argument for either side if you want but I wouldn't be too confident in either personally.

Whose Garagorri beaten thats decent? His record is a list of cans or can crushers

 

[Blockbets]

Tough card. Finding it hard to be confident in any spots.

 

[And]

Wasn't overly impressed by footage of Garagorri at least not what I found, making his debut as well which often results in subpar performances. Bandenay more experienced as it is but only 24 and having spent a bit more time at a decent team with Oyama now could make him shot some solid improvements. Think you can make an argument for either side if you want but I wouldn't be too confident in either personally.

Whose Garagorri beaten thats decent? His record is a list of cans or can crushers

When was the last time Bandenay was at Team Oyama? Looking at his Instagram it might have been end of 2017 when he was preparing for Volkanovski (He really dodged a bullet pulling out of that one).

I trained with him once just before his fight with Arnett and decided afterwards that I would automatically fade him whenever I had a chance. I got Arnett at underdog odds but couldn't go big (because it's Austin Arnett). It's kind of the same situation here. I got Garagorri at underdog odds but I won't risk too much come fight time because I have never seen can-crushing quite like that before. Some of his opponents probably started training MMA a week or so before the fight. I know that Bandenay is a complete bum but it's impossible to know how good Garagorri is, maybe he's the same level or even worse. I think passing and live-betting is probably the smartest thing to do unless there's some more information regarding Garagorri.

Has anyone found any interviews or any information regarding his training camp? (I do speak Spanish and Portuguese as well)

All I found is this one, without any useful information regarding his training camp:

https://mmapremium.com.br/luiz-garagorri-ufc-uruguai/

 

[rev0lver]

Wasn't overly impressed by footage of Garagorri at least not what I found, making his debut as well which often results in subpar performances. Bandenay more experienced as it is but only 24 and having spent a bit more time at a decent team with Oyama now could make him shot some solid improvements. Think you can make an argument for either side if you want but I wouldn't be too confident in either personally.

Whose Garagorri beaten thats decent? His record is a list of cans or can crushers

Is Bandenay even training with Team Oyama? Supposedly he joined and quickly decided to go back to Peru and keep training there.

I liked the footage I've seen from Garagorri. Not elite, but a well-rounded guy who can hit hard and has good BJJ. Bandenay looked like he didn't belong in the UFC in his last fight, and it's hard for me to see what he does here beyond headhunting with kicks against a kickboxing-based guy. I would probably just dog-or-pass if the lines were wider, but I think Garagorri -130 is a no brainer compared to the rest of this card.

 

[rev0lver]

Regarding Garagorri's opponents, he's fought a couple decent fighters. Nilton Gaviao (15-5), Pablo Sepulveda (7-3, though mostly against cans), Jose Trindade (8-2, though also mostly against cans). To be fair, it's hard for these guys in South America outside Brazil to find good opponents. But we've seen similar guys step up and have success.

Stylistically it's just hard to see how Bandenay wins beyond finding an early head kick. He gasses fast and is pretty bad in every other area of his game.

 

[Jordan3399]

Is Bandenay even training with Team Oyama? Supposedly he joined and quickly decided to go back to Peru and keep training there.

I liked the footage I've seen from Garagorri. Not elite, but a well-rounded guy who can hit hard and has good BJJ. Bandenay looked like he didn't belong in the UFC in his last fight, and it's hard for me to see what he does here beyond headhunting with kicks against a kickboxing-based guy. I would probably just dog-or-pass if the lines were wider, but I think Garagorri -130 is a no brainer compared to the rest of this card.

Think you're right about him not being with Oyama, looks like he's been at Astra Fight Team which has a few UFC guys.

I looked a bit more at it, Bandenay probably has a pretty significant wrestling advantage, he's nothing special but the footage I could find of Garragorri showed him to have almost no TDD while Bandenay just about has some serviceable wrestling ability. Bandenay probably has a BJJ advantage too tbh from what I saw, Garra looked good subbing guys with very limited to no ground game but he was making basic mistakes like not adjusting a triangle choke properly vs Gaviao and losing positions easily that leave me very skeptical. Bandenay did come very close to subbing Benitez and it took a lot of pressure from Arnett to gas him after he won the first round so I'm not sure he fades here. Garagorri has alright striking but I didn't see anything particularly special just basic Muay Thai. I couldn't find any of his recent fights though which might show significant improvements but I'm doubtful if he's training at a fairly low level regional gym and they're only very short fights with the last 2 against debuting fighters.

Fwiw as well Gaviao was only 5-0 at the time and a pretty terrible fighter. I do like the FGTD at +200, both guys are terrible finishers vs anything vs cans

 

[Jordan3399]

When was the last time Bandenay was at Team Oyama? Looking at his Instagram it might have been end of 2017 when he was preparing for Volkanovski (He really dodged a bullet pulling out of that one).

I trained with him once just before his fight with Arnett and decided afterwards that I would automatically fade him whenever I had a chance. I got Arnett at underdog odds but couldn't go big (because it's Austin Arnett). It's kind of the same situation here. I got Garagorri at underdog odds but I won't risk too much come fight time because I have never seen can-crushing quite like that before. Some of his opponents probably started training MMA a week or so before the fight. I know that Bandenay is a complete bum but it's impossible to know how good Garagorri is, maybe he's the same level or even worse. I think passing and live-betting is probably the smartest thing to do unless there's some more information regarding Garagorri.

Has anyone found any interviews or any information regarding his training camp? (I do speak Spanish and Portuguese as well)

All I found is this one, without any useful information regarding his training camp:

https://mmapremium.com.br/luiz-garagorri-ufc-uruguai/

Checking his social media looks he's been Astra Fight Team although I can't translate any of the Portuguese/Spanish. I fully agree Bandenay is shit, I just see nothing to suggest Garragorri is even his level

 

[Naught2Sixty]

Checking his social media looks he's been Astra Fight Team although I can't translate any of the Portuguese/Spanish. I fully agree Bandenay is shit, I just see nothing to suggest Garragorri is even his level

The Instagram app has a translate feature on it. A lot of the dudes hes been training with and tagging in posts are with Astra and the backdrop is consistent throughout all their posts.

Regarding Garags camp...only info I could find was his listing on tapology at Liga Sok Thai in Rio. They have a facebook page that hasn't been posted on since 2014 so...



https://www.tapology.com/gyms/2250-sok-thai

 

[theTKDguy]

Is Garagorri not a steal at evens? Hometown guy, dynamic and powerful striker, good ground game, undefeated against a mix of cans and decent fighters.

I maintain that Bandenay is pretty terrible. Sorta pillow-fisted on the feet, just spams a lot of kicks, questionable cardio, gets subbed a lot. Thought he was instant fade material coming into the UFC, but won his debut hitting a good knee that was intended as a kick, so here he is. Lost his last fight to Austin Arnett, imo one of the worst fighters in the division, who 10-8'd him in their third round. This seems like the easiest bet on the card for me unless someone can convince me otherwise.

bandenay isn´t ufc level FACT but garagorri may not be ufc level either. they are two cans, wouldn't play either- maybe FDGTD. i think it's a ko either way

 

[Deleted member 560591]

FUCK EVERYTHING I SAID AND BET THE HOUSE ON PERRY. GIANNI IS CONFIDENT IN VICENTE NOOOOOOOOOOO....

 

[Naught2Sixty]

#Gamblenati: Luque the most undervalued guy at this weight class...

Me:

 

[And]

Regarding Garagorri's opponents, he's fought a couple decent fighters. Nilton Gaviao (15-5), Pablo Sepulveda (7-3, though mostly against cans), Jose Trindade (8-2, though also mostly against cans). To be fair, it's hard for these guys in South America outside Brazil to find good opponents. But we've seen similar guys step up and have success.

Stylistically it's just hard to see how Bandenay wins beyond finding an early head kick. He gasses fast and is pretty bad in every other area of his game.

5 of his 12 fights took place in Brazil. He's half Brazilian (His father is Brazilian) and he's from Rivera, Uruguay which is just on the border. He could basically jog to Brazil in 5 minutes. The opponents you mentioned look a lot worse on tape than what their records suggest.

I would really like to have a reason to fade Bandenay hard, that's why I'm scouting for any information regarding Garagorri's training camp.

 

[And]

The Instagram app has a translate feature on it. A lot of the dudes hes been training with and tagging in posts are with Astra and the backdrop is consistent throughout all their posts.

Regarding Garags camp...only info I could find was his listing on tapology at Liga Sok Thai in Rio. They have a facebook page that hasn't been posted on since 2014 so...



https://www.tapology.com/gyms/2250-sok-thai

Most of his training videos on Instagram is at his family gym in Uruguay, where he normally trains, but he hasn't posted any photos/videos for this training camp.

 

[Naught2Sixty]

Most of his training videos on Instagram is at his family gym in Uruguay, where he normally trains, but he hasn't posted any photos/videos for this training camp.

Obviously focused more on training than being an Instagram thot (shout out to Nadia Kassem). Confidence increase.

 

[And]

Obviously focused more on training than being able Instagram thot (shout out to Nadia Kassem). Confidence increase.

Well, he did mention in the interview I posted that he trains everyday, three times a day, with a rest day sometimes to recover.

FUCK EVERYTHING I SAID AND BET THE HOUSE ON PERRY. GIANNI IS CONFIDENT IN VICENTE NOOOOOOOOOOO....

How profitable would it have been to fade Yannis the Greek since he started working for the UFC? Anyone tracked his record?

 

[PinkFlammingo]

Who is anyone on this card?

 

[Soccer Steve]

Who is anyone on this card?

The era of loaded-to-the-gills cards is over. The sooner the nostalgic among us come to terms with this, the better for them. Clay Guida and Jim Miller were the co-main event last weekend. That's the UFC we get now. If you need name-value cards, then you may as well come back for UFC 300 and skip anything in between.
Last night, on Dana White's personal voyeur fetish show, I made a killing betting on guys I'd never heard of before last week. Opportunity and value is all around us, more than it ever has been before. It's a bettor's wet dream era right now - dozens of books and numerous fighting orgs. Fuck, GDR-Ladd just headlined an event - much to the casual's chagrin - and it was one of the greatest betting lines I've ever seen.
This is a betting forum. Saying things like "this card sucks" or "who are these fighters" simply doesn't belong here. And, frankly, it doesn't make any sense.

 

[PinkFlammingo]

The era of loaded-to-the-gills cards is over. The sooner the nostalgic among us come to terms with this, the better for them. Clay Guida and Jim Miller were the co-main event last weekend. That's the UFC we get now. If you need name-value cards, then you may as well come back for UFC 300 and skip anything in between.
Last night, on Dana White's personal voyeur fetish show, I made a killing betting on guys I'd never heard of before last week. Opportunity and value is all around us, more than it ever has been before. It's a bettor's wet dream era right now - dozens of books and numerous fighting orgs. Fuck, GDR-Ladd just headlined an event - much to the casual's chagrin - and it was one of the greatest betting lines I've ever seen.
This is a betting forum. Saying things like "this card sucks" or "who are these fighters" simply doesn't belong here. And, frankly, it doesn't make any sense.

Theres a lot of assumptions in that post. Either way congrats on winning those bets on "guys [youve] never heard of before". Please tell me more about how i should be, and how you are great!