UFN 156 on ESPN+ 14 Shevchenko vs Carmouche II

Fuuuuuuck. I liked laureano

He's a horrible fighter to bet on at present, since he improves SO much from bout to bout. Like most of the forum, I was heavily on Hector Aldana to beat Staropoli for his UFC debut. Staropoli looked horrendous on the tape! Bad striking, even worse grappling.

So then he comes out and solidly beats Aldana, looking like a respectable, borderline UFC talent and showing a seismic level of improvement compared to the last tape of him less than a year and a half prior.

Against Alves, much of the forum was on Thiago, somehow ignoring what had happened with Aldanan. I avoided the trap, and sure enough, Staropoli shows even more improvement.

Now Kunchenko, uninspiring debut against the aforementioned Alves aside, is a much tougher foe than Alves, and has now acclimated himself to fighting 3 rounds instead of the 5 he was used to. Fighters don't improve indefinitely, either. So yet again, it would have been a fight to avoid, even if you really like Starapoli.

Burns vs. Kunchenko is a much better fight, since we're looking at two largely finished products.
 
He's a horrible fighter to bet on at present, since he improves SO much from bout to bout. Like most of the forum, I was heavily on Hector Aldana to beat Staropoli for his UFC debut. Staropoli looked horrendous on the tape! Bad striking, even worse grappling.

So then he comes out and solidly beats Aldana, looking like a respectable, borderline UFC talent and showing a seismic level of improvement compared to the last tape of him less than a year and a half prior.

Against Alves, much of the forum was on Thiago, somehow ignoring what had happened with Aldanan. I avoided the trap, and sure enough, Staropoli shows even more improvement.

Now Kunchenko, uninspiring debut against the aforementioned Alves aside, is a much tougher foe than Alves, and has now acclimated himself to fighting 3 rounds instead of the 5 he was used to. Fighters don't improve indefinitely, either. So yet again, it would have been a fight to avoid, even if you really like Starapoli.

Burns vs. Kunchenko is a much better fight, since we're looking at two largely finished products.
Alves dealt with him pretty easily when he actually felt like throwing strikes. Dude got fortunate enough to get an old, low interest Alves and still struggled when Alves actually worked
 
Against Alves, much of the forum was on Thiago, somehow ignoring what had happened with Aldanan. I avoided the trap
#EliteBettor

Also how is Staro if anything improving make him bad to bet on? It'd be bad if its possible he turns up significantly worse than on tape, not if he could turn up significantly better.
 
#EliteBettor

Also how is Staro if anything improving make him bad to bet on? It'd be bad if its possible he turns up significantly worse than on tape, not if he could turn up significantly better.
Come on man, please don't start this again. Just ignore each other already.

Does anyone know if Burns was planning on making the move to WW? Or is he just taking this fight on short notice and going to basically show up with our much of a weight cut?
 
#EliteBettor

Also how is Staro if anything improving make him bad to bet on? It'd be bad if its possible he turns up significantly worse than on tape, not if he could turn up significantly better.

Go back to lying about your results and making dogshit picks, clown. You already clutter up this topic with your inane, foolish ramblings enough as it is, Jordie boy.
 
Wow, we have 14 bouts, never ever see 14 bouts before, thank you uncle Dana. Even if 1 or 2 fight falls off, 12 fight is very good.

It seems I am the earliest sherdog member since 2011 but I only have 65 post, math just don't add up.
 
Go back to lying about your results and making dogshit picks, clown. You already clutter up this topic with your inane, foolish ramblings enough as it is, Jordie boy.
I slightly question your analysis and that is your response? Could you be more of an egomaniac?
 
Can both of you queens either shut up or just get on with fucking each other
 
Come on man, please don't start this again. Just ignore each other already.

Does anyone know if Burns was planning on making the move to WW? Or is he just taking this fight on short notice and going to basically show up with our much of a weight cut?
Genuine question tbf if a tad sarcastic, still think his response was a bit overkill but whatever.

Anyway, Burns tweeted out on 25th July saying he was planning the move to 170 and the fight was announced 6 days later. He walks around about 185 so the cut should be fine as long as he was in shape. He used to have a big cut to 155. Also used to grapple at about 170 as well.
 
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Not seeing the Rodriguez hype.

Rodriguez game is aggressive Muay Thai; elbows, Thai plum with knee spam and all. Unfortunately I think there’s a decent chance Tecia shuts her down hard here. Firstly in the range striking Tecia is by far her toughest test and it’s not even close, Rodriguez is fine at range using her length but when you blitz in, which Markos and to a degree Aguilar did successfully you can land on her easily as she backs up in a straight line with her hands out. A blitzing style like Tecia’s will have no problem moving in and out and unloading combos on poor defence like that.

Now of course you can argue there’s counters to that, knee’s, the clinch etc. but Rodriguez hasn’t shown to be particularly adept at these and when she does go for the Thai clinch it’s nowhere near as educated as Joanna, Valentina Shevchenko or other great Muay Thai fighters in MMA. She’s more of a Karolina grabbing the Thai plum and spamming knees. This works vs people like Aguilar whose defence to that is no better than Rich Franklin where they just cover up not fighting the position itself and accepting punishment. Tecia on the other hand does any excellent job pushing forward forcing clinch wrestling and pushing her opponent into the fence where she can work on takedowns. If Rodriguez does that here she’s asking to be takendown on the cage.

The striking will be competitive, and Rodriguez could win but the point I want to make is Tecia does not need takedowns to win the fight as there are plenty of holes in Rodriguez game standing and she has the skills to exploit.

As for the grappling Tecia isn’t a dominant wrestler obviously, but she does have good wrestling taking down girls like Andrade and Waterson. Her main issue is her lack of get ups which has been used against her before but fortunately for her Rodriguez is very unlikely to go for top position or stay there if she does find herself there. Rodriguez TDD before looked weak, Markos was getting her down with head and arm throws and weak gassed shots while even Tecia’s technique is more dynamic than that and she won’t fade hard after R1 either, if she can get TDs in R1 she can more than likely get them in 2 and 3 as well.
 
LOL these main events are so bad lately. Luque/Perry is a banger and couple others with potential but this card is a dumpster fire of epic proportions
His standup is... not good. Watch his Rakchal fight, where an actual bum was giving him trouble on the feet. Also struggled with getting takedowns, which is to be expected from someone who had just transitioned from pure BJJ. He can’t rely as much on judo throws since there is no gi to grab.

That was in 2017 though, and his wrestling improved a lot since then. His standup should be better, but there’s no way to know for sure since he’s subbed everyone else early into the first round. He’s got a solid camp at ATT (afaik. At least that’s where he trained back in the Rakchal fight) though and should be much improved. His first 4 fights were all cans, but in his last fight, he took down Nemchinov (who’s is fairly solid (some of his fights are on youtube)) and subbed him under 2 min.

Haven’t taped Piechota yet but from what I remember (so don’t trust me lol), he looked pretty good against Wilson and GM3 (in the first round at least). Haven’t seen any other fights of his. He looked bad against GM3 though, which isn’t a good look. Can’t remember if he gassed or not... Will get back to you once I have time.
From memory he gassed real bad. Cause for concern
 
#EliteBettor

Also how is Staro if anything improving make him bad to bet on? It'd be bad if its possible he turns up significantly worse than on tape, not if he could turn up significantly better.
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Seriously think your addicted to Polar and petty internet drama
 
I think one of the best lines for this card is Moffett over Barzola. Barzola is going to struggle vs. most wrestlers IMO. He's had some pretty favorable matchmaking.

Besides that, so far I only like Tecia and Vieiria.
 
Striking gap between Oskar and Vieiria worry anyone?
 
I think one of the best lines for this card is Moffett over Barzola. Barzola is going to struggle vs. most wrestlers IMO. He's had some pretty favorable matchmaking.

Besides that, so far I only like Tecia and Vieiria.
I got it early at +180 and very much agree. Look at the guys Barzola has beaten. None of those guys can wrestle. Both his losses (Aguilar and Bochinak) were guys who could wrestle a bit.
 
I don't see any bettable favorites on this card, even Viera, Oskar’s cardio is bad, but assuming Viera is off the acai berry juice, how will he hold up if he doesn’t get a sub in R1?

I have bet only on plus odd fighters on this card. Of those the 2 i want to bring up are latifi at +135 and Perry at +190. I think this is a bad match up for Oezdemir. His Ko power declines considerably outside the first 3 minutes of R1, i think its either a r1 ko for him, or he will lose, most likely by gnp in r3. I just cant see why he is the favourite. Latifi is defensively minded and will not shoot blindly, his style gives him a good chance here. Who is on Oezdemir and why?

I watched luque v barberena and those 2 just dngaf about defence, it was fun, but in a brawl, i like perry, his power equal to luque at least, and his chin is better imo, and in his last fight he had his hands up, had some head movement and was clearly thinking about setting up opportunities implement his striking.

The blueprint to beat perry is to use length and movement, is there any fight where luque has implemented this gameplan? I only taped his fight against barberena, has anyone got any recommendations on his other fights?
 
I don't see any bettable favorites on this card, even Viera, Oskar’s cardio is bad, but assuming Viera is off the acai berry juice, how will he hold up if he doesn’t get a sub in R1?

I have bet only on plus odd fighters on this card. Of those the 2 i want to bring up are latifi at +135 and Perry at +190. I think this is a bad match up for Oezdemir. His Ko power declines considerably outside the first 3 minutes of R1, i think its either a r1 ko for him, or he will lose, most likely by gnp in r3. I just cant see why he is the favourite. Latifi is defensively minded and will not shoot blindly, his style gives him a good chance here. Who is on Oezdemir and why?

I watched luque v barberena and those 2 just dngaf about defence, it was fun, but in a brawl, i like perry, his power equal to luque at least, and his chin is better imo, and in his last fight he had his hands up, had some head movement and was clearly thinking about setting up opportunities implement his striking.

The blueprint to beat perry is to use length and movement, is there any fight where luque has implemented this gameplan? I only taped his fight against barberena, has anyone got any recommendations on his other fights?
Good post, I agree with your thoughts on those fights.

Good stuff this year on your betmma profile btw. Looks like you are doing well.
 
Man, Vicente might give Perry his first KO loss in MMA.

I like Mike a lot but he will never be a real top 15 guy. The UFC keeps him because he is a fun fighter and a character. Other than that he is still the same plodding brawler. Right hand, left hook. His defensive response is always bad. Super hittable and too predictable with his own offense. I do believe that Cowboy Oliveira could have beaten him pretty comfortably if he wouldn't be a low fight IQ maniac who throws away fights he is winning lol. Perry needs to throw combinations to get Vicente in trouble. Barberena was able to do damage because of his insane chin (which is gone now) and his high volume. Mike is plodding and waiting for that one big punch which he will need desperately here. Perry is durable but he was floored so many times in the UFC already. Max Griffin dropped him, Ponz dropped him, Jouban dropped him. Oliveira hurt him and on top of that he was ko'd in boxing before. He relies a lot on his chin. What has he to offer if you take his chin away ? Basically just strength and a right hand against a more technical guy who is better everywhere and probably has even more KO power. Ducking and moving your head a bit is not a serious indication for me that he is actually getting significantly better.

Vicente can knock anyone out and he has a path to victory on the ground as well. Bad matchup for Perry imo. People probably look at the Barberena and Krantz fight thinking Vicente can get ko'd here.
 
I don't see any bettable favorites on this card, even Viera, Oskar’s cardio is bad, but assuming Viera is off the acai berry juice, how will he hold up if he doesn’t get a sub in R1?

I have bet only on plus odd fighters on this card. Of those the 2 i want to bring up are latifi at +135 and Perry at +190. I think this is a bad match up for Oezdemir. His Ko power declines considerably outside the first 3 minutes of R1, i think its either a r1 ko for him, or he will lose, most likely by gnp in r3. I just cant see why he is the favourite. Latifi is defensively minded and will not shoot blindly, his style gives him a good chance here. Who is on Oezdemir and why?

I watched luque v barberena and those 2 just dngaf about defence, it was fun, but in a brawl, i like perry, his power equal to luque at least, and his chin is better imo, and in his last fight he had his hands up, had some head movement and was clearly thinking about setting up opportunities implement his striking.

The blueprint to beat perry is to use length and movement, is there any fight where luque has implemented this gameplan? I only taped his fight against barberena, has anyone got any recommendations on his other fights?
I can get behind this reasoning. Luque hasn't really shown a stick n move strategy like how Ponz and Jouban beat Perry. I think Perry has been fighting the harder competition as well. Don't think Luques wins have aged well. Laprise having gone on to get one punch ko'd by the shitty Lima bro, Barb getting stopped by Brown, Turner having a weak chin etc. Hate to grade on a curve since Luque utterly stomped these guys while Perry is getting rolled by top10 talent too.
 
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