UFN 144 on ESPN+ 2 Assuncao vs Moraes II

[Jordan3399]

You late to the party, Walker was +200 vs that bum Khalil, I took that +200

But I ain't about to take -275 against an opponent that was better than his last. Walker should win this though

You think Ledet is better than Khalil? I haven't watched tape that recently but did a load before betting against him with Rakic and aside from a solid jab and somewhat effective ground game don't recall Ledet offering anything that notable. If Ledet was actually a half decent wrestler to utilise his ground game I'd perhaps rate his chances but I don't see him just jabbing his way to a decision against a guy 6ft 6in with a reach advantage especially after he struggled with a guy like Zu Anyanwu whose since been cut. Also anyone who knows how to leg kick can chew him up easily and cut his movement. Unless I'm massively overrating Walker this doesn't seem like the kind of match up to fade him.

 

[Kyle Stephens]

I thought his defence was good tbh, but his footwork was lacking.

Aldo in his two Holloway fights and in the Stephens fight:

No way I back up a fighter who's losing his wheels in a hurry. I like headmovement, I like parrying but I like foot movement a lot more. This is the name of the game in MMA. Especially @ lighter weightclasses. This doesn't mean I'll put money on Moicano (because I don't want to pay the juice), but I don't like Aldo's chances and he is not too big of an underdog to bet him either.

I would say damage accumulation and lack of cardio could get aldo.

The bane of Nova Uniao's fighters.

i haven't done full tape but my early impression is that ledet is being grossly underrated here.

Maybe. But I lean to not. Unathletic HWs going down to LHW is proving to be a very poor decision. (J.Ledet, L.Henrique, R.Coulter and he barely won and the other guy was also HW who went down). Most LHWs are too damn dynamic and still they are big boys, for some small HW who decided to diet a little and go down to 205. Ledet made the mistake of his life going down in weight IMO. Ledet can't win this fight via boxing. If he can't outwrestle and/or outgrapple that big mofo, he is getting smashed. I don't know if its going to look like in his previous fight but it won't be pretty.

 

[Dianabol]

You think Ledet is better than Khalil? I haven't watched tape that recently but did a load before betting against him with Rakic and aside from a solid jab and somewhat effective ground game don't recall Ledet offering anything that notable. If Ledet was actually a half decent wrestler to utilise his ground game I'd perhaps rate his chances but I don't see him just jabbing his way to a decision against a guy 6ft 6in with a reach advantage especially after he struggled with a guy like Zu Anyanwu whose since been cut. Also anyone who knows how to leg kick can chew him up easily and cut his movement. Unless I'm massively overrating Walker this doesn't seem like the kind of match up to fade him.

Khalil is a bum, saying someone is better than him doesn't mean much

I agree with you about Ledet though

 

[Dianabol]

Frota looks like she went to prison for 10 years, this chick has a voice deeper than Cyborg's

 

[Jordan3399]

Aldo in his two Holloway fights and in the Stephens fight:

No way I back up a fighter who's losing his wheels in a hurry. I like headmovement, I like parrying but I like foot movement a lot more. This is the name of the game in MMA. Especially @ lighter weightclasses. This doesn't mean I'll put money on Moicano (because I don't want to pay the juice), but I don't like Aldo's chances and he is not too big of an underdog to bet him either.

The bane of Nova Uniao's fighters.

Maybe. But I lean to not. Unathletic HWs going down to LHW is proving to be a very poor decision. (J.Ledet, L.Henrique, R.Coulter and he barely won and the other guy was also HW who went down). Most LHWs are too damn dynamic and still they are big boys, for some small HW who decided to diet a little and go down to 205. Ledet made the mistake of his life going down in weight IMO. Ledet can't win this fight via boxing. If he can't outwrestle and/or outgrapple that big mofo, he is getting smashed. I don't know if its going to look like in his previous fight but it won't be pretty.

Tbh after rewatching it so closely following what the other guy said I'm not as worried about Aldo's footwork, it wasn't as fluid and clean as say the Edgar fight but I didn't really acknowledge how well Stephens was cutting off the octagon which he did a surprisingly great job of prior to Aldo going on the offensive which

Totally agree on Ledet as well moving down in weight and why I ended up betting Rakic against him, the skill gap really is huge between LHW and HW and moving up like DC seems like a way better decision with an easier lifestyle in exchange for easier competition.

 

[Jordan3399]

Frota looks like she went to prison for 10 years, this chick has a voice deeper than Cyborg's

Honestly after watching tape I don't see the hype, Souza should have a big grappling advantage which she will almost certainly use and will be facing a fighter with better cardio than her too as Frota gassed hard in her split decision win 18 months ago against a 2-1-1 can. I think your initial point of Frota having a striking advantage might not play out given how bad Frota's (And her teammate Taila Santos) defence is that mostly relies of sticking their chins up and leaning back and far lesser fighters than Souza landed consecutive overhand rights which is easily Souza's best punch. Aside from being tough, physically strong and having an active guard which Souza should easily pass I can't see much in favour of Frota and nothing Souza shouldn't handle easily unless she gets overpowered in any initial Cyborgesque barrage.

 

[Dianabol]

Honestly after watching tape I don't see the hype, Souza should have a big grappling advantage which she will almost certainly use and will be facing a fighter with better cardio than her too as Frota gassed hard in her split decision win 18 months ago against a 2-1-1 can. I think your initial point of Frota having a striking advantage might not play out given how bad Frota's (And her teammate Taila Santos) defence is that mostly relies of sticking their chins up and leaning back and far lesser fighters than Souza landed consecutive overhand rights which is easily Souza's best punch. Aside from being tough, physically strong and having an active guard which Souza should easily pass I can't see much in favour of Frota and nothing Souza shouldn't handle easily unless she gets overpowered in any initial Cyborgesque barrage.

Yeah no way Souza is going to have a 'big' grappling advantage, but I do expect Souza to have a wrestling advantage. My main criticism on Frota is she has slowed down in fights before and I've seen her pull guard several times. You have to remember though, Frota only started MMA in 2016, I see a massive leap in her striking from her regional fights to the DWTNCS fight, don't get fooled by old tape. Frota will also have a 6" reach advantage.

Frota got split decision 18 months ago against a 2-1 fighter but that fight was at 135lbs and the split was a pretty clear 29-28 for Frota. In fact Frota has competed at 135, 125 and 115. I've heard Souza doesn't even cut weight.

Your point about comparing her to Talia Santos is pretty dumb TBH. Frota isn't Santos, they're totally different strikers and Frota hasn't even been at Astra fight team all that long. Talia Santos is a good training partner though, BJJ black belt and a surprisingly good offensive wrestler.

I've seen Souza slow down and gas before too, Souza also doesn't have the best defense. This fight is gonna be a lot closer than you think, you gonna be surprised. I can see Frota getting her hand raised multiple ways. I hope she doesn't pull guard though, even though she's had a lot of success from that position and is probably the higher level blackbelt.

Souza nearly got submitted by Morandin by a triangle, that seems to be Frota's best submission. If Frota submits Souza it wouldn't be the first BJJ blackbelt she's subbed in MMA

 

[turbozed]

Ok so I like this Sarah Frota at +210

Reminds me of when I picked Johnny Walker over Rountree. Walker fought on DWTNCS Brazil, he was unknown, overlooked and underestimated, now look at him, -280 vs Ledet.

No ones knows who Frota is, I saw her months ago when she competed on DWTNCS Brazil and she impressed me more than any of the other girls on that show did. She dominated her opponent with striking and pressure. Showed some good muay thai, solid punching power and was unfazed by anything her opponent landed.

So I was thinking Frota was just a striker but it also turns out she's a BJJ blackbelt. Frota is 31 years old, only started competing in pro MMA in 2016 but has quickly put together a 9-0 record, I think her experience in muay thai and BJJ is the reason for her fast rise. Frota trains out of Astra Fight Team, one of the better MMA gyms in Brazil.

Souza and Frota aren't so different, both Brazilian fighters with that Brazilian skillset, good muay thai and BJJ but the wrestling is lacking. Souza has a decent edge in experience here and I think that is her biggest advantage.

I just think Frota looks like a much cleaner striker, Souza is wild, throws a lot of loopy/wide punches, she's powerful and agressive but so is Frota. I think if this stays standing, Frota is going to look good. Both girls are BJJ blackbelts.

Timestapped Frota's DWTNCS fight

Any WMMA fighter that butch looking deserves a closer look. Not the cleanest of striking technique but she seemed not bothered by anything the other girl was throwing at her, so that explains the exaggerated wind-up punches. Her frame, especially the shoulders and neck area, is just abnormally masculine, and it seems to help to generate powerful punches as well as absorb them. Thanks for the heads up, I'll go ahead and cap and will write something up later.

Edit: Watching tape now. Frota looks a lot like Gregor Gillespie, but more masculine and on meth

 

[Jordan3399]

Yeah no way Souza is going to have a 'big' grappling advantage, but I do expect Souza to have a wrestling advantage. My main criticism on Frota is she has slowed down in fights before and I've seen her pull guard several times. You have to remember though, Frota only started MMA in 2016, I see a massive leap in her striking from her regional fights to the DWTNCS fight, don't get fooled by old tape. Frota will also have a 6" reach advantage.

Frota got split decision 18 months ago against a 2-1 fighter but that fight was at 135lbs and the split was a pretty clear 29-28 for Frota. In fact Frota has competed at 135, 125 and 115. I've heard Souza doesn't even cut weight.

Your point about comparing her to Talia Santos is pretty dumb TBH. Frota isn't Santos, they're totally different strikers and Frota hasn't even been at Astra fight team all that long. Talia Santos is a good training partner though, BJJ black belt and a surprisingly good offensive wrestler.

I've seen Souza slow down and gas before too, Souza also doesn't have the best defense. This fight is gonna be a lot closer than you think, you gonna be surprised. I can see Frota getting her hand raised multiple ways. I hope she doesn't pull guard though, even though she's had a lot of success from that position and is probably the higher level blackbelt.

Souza nearly got submitted by Morandin by a triangle, that seems to be Frota's best submission. If Frota submits Souza it wouldn't be the first BJJ blackbelt she's subbed in MMA

She gassed in 5 minutes and that being at 135 doesn't really make your point any better. If I was on Souza I'd be even more confident as a 20 pound weight cut will only make that even worse. Souza has gassed before like vs Hill but she almost finished the fight early and still hung in their making the final round very competitive almost getting multiple submissions. Frota on the other hand resorted to an winging over hand every few seconds and any half decent fighter would of crushed her.

As for her BJJ as I acknowledged in my original point she has a decent offensive guard but she's subbed nobody decent and gassed hard trying to before and with her wrestling, judo and MMA grappling experience Souza will probably pass her guard easily. If Souza gets an early takedown, which is very likely, you'll be relying on her to get a first round submission off her back or she'll just gas and likely get subbed herself the next round if not TKO'd. Then on the feet she is defensively awful against a tough hard hitting opponent and while she may of learnt to throw a half decent cross it's really not impressive and nowhere near the level of Souza's previous competition that she beat.

Also not sure how you can call her and Santos totally different strikers when as I pointed out they have the same massive defensive flaws. Overall Astra fight team as a whole is a bunch of can crushers and the only people they've actually got to the UFC are in the weakest divisions barring maybe Glaico Franca and Tills run training there the best they've really achieved is Albini, who skillwise is pretty dreadful and his skill mainly comes from boxing experience before he came to MMA. Most of there top fighters have at best competed in Bellator and looked pretty mediocre before returning back to can crushing and record padding.

I'm all for acknowledging fighter progression but you can't completely change a fighter in 18 months. Was initially going to pass on the fight but they'll probably be a lot of ways to play Souza once props come out as you can hedge pretty easily with Frota R1. If not just livebet Souza as Frota fades.

 

[Dianabol]

Any WMMA fighter that butch looking deserves a closer look. Not the cleanest of striking technique but she seemed not bothered by anything the other girl was throwing at her, so that explains the exaggerated wind-up punches. Her frame, especially the shoulders and neck area, is just abnormally masculine, and it seems to help to generate powerful punches as well as absorb them. Thanks for the heads up, I'll go ahead and cap and will write something up later.

Edit: Watching tape now. Frota looks a lot like Gregor Gillespie, but more masculine and on meth

She is possibly the most butch WMMA fighter, she has prison looking tattoos on her face. Also her voice is crazy deep, I bet she takes testosterone.

 

[Dianabol]

She gassed in 5 minutes and that being at 135 doesn't really make your point any better. If I was on Souza I'd be even more confident as a 20 pound weight cut will only make that even worse. Souza has gassed before like vs Hill but she almost finished the fight early and still hung in their making the final round very competitive almost getting multiple submissions. Frota on the other hand resorted to an winging over hand every few seconds and any half decent fighter would of crushed her.

As for her BJJ as I acknowledged in my original point she has a decent offensive guard but she's subbed nobody decent and gassed hard trying to before and with her wrestling, judo and MMA grappling experience Souza will probably pass her guard easily. If Souza gets an early takedown, which is very likely, you'll be relying on her to get a first round submission off her back or she'll just gas and likely get subbed herself the next round if not TKO'd. Then on the feet she is defensively awful against a tough hard hitting opponent and while she may of learnt to throw a half decent cross it's really not impressive and nowhere near the level of Souza's previous competition that she beat.

Also not sure how you can call her and Santos totally different strikers when as I pointed out they have the same massive defensive flaws. Overall Astra fight team as a whole is a bunch of can crushers and the only people they've actually got to the UFC are in the weakest divisions barring maybe Glaico Franca and Tills run training there the best they've really achieved is Albini, who skillwise is pretty dreadful and his skill mainly comes from boxing experience before he came to MMA. Most of there top fighters have at best competed in Bellator and looked pretty mediocre before returning back to can crushing and record padding.

I'm all for acknowledging fighter progression but you can't completely change a fighter in 18 months. Was initially going to pass on the fight but they'll probably be a lot of ways to play Souza once props come out as you can hedge pretty easily with Frota R1. If not just livebet Souza as Frota fades.

We already went over a bunch of what you said and the rest is just you making kind irrelevant comparisons

Look, at the end of the day she's a BJJ BB with a dangerous submission game, powerful striking, undefeated 9-0 and improving fast from what I've seen. You can't say there wasn't a significant improvement in her standup in her last fight, she looked much more slick, accurate and composed. That fight was actually a rematch, Frota tapped her in the first fight and KO'd her in the 2nd, her opponent was a BJJ blackbelt too.

When you are as fresh to MMA as Frota is, yes you are going to make big improvements fast, her pro MMA debut was April 2016 and she only did as well as she did because she was a high level BJJ competitor. I'd expect more improvments fast, not even 3 years in the game yet, she's a sponge.

Astra fight team is one of the top Brazilian gyms, lol at you naming all the UFC talent that fights there and still hating on it. Go ahead and talk about where Souza trains

It won't be Frota's first cut to 115, she didn't look huge at 125, she'll be bigger than Souza no doubt. We'll have to wait and see how the cut goes but I think she'll be ok.

I'm not really concerned what happened 18 months ago at 135lbs. And for what it's worth she beat the crap out of that chick and it was a clear win. What you should focus on more than anything is Frota's last fight, that was a straight up beatdown, Souza don't want none of that.

Souza nearly got submitted by Morandin via triangle, full locked in at the end of the 2nd. Morandin ain't no blackbelt, if that was Frota, Souza be tapping. Souza also looked gassed in the 3rd vs Morandin and was getting outstruck but Morandin has no TDD.

Frota doesn't appear to have much TDD either but she's very confident in her guard and I wouldn't be surprised if she caught Souza. As for the striking they're gonna throw down, they're both from the ghetto and they're both violent. I just see Frota coming out on top

 

[SalvadorAllende]

Not loving this card for betting but Im all over Aldo. Only concern is that he is back to his WEC style of fighting and he might get caught.

People need to realize that he is retiring after 3 fights (asked all in Brazil) and he wants to put the best show possible for the fans and maybe himself. He could have jabbed and 1-2 Stephens all night long and win 30-27 easily but he stood toe to toe because... well just bleed.

Aldo power is underrated. Just because he pointfighted for years does not mean he is not one of the most powerful FWs. Max chin is unreal. People seems to forget that many of his fights went to decision because once they opponents felt his hands they didnt want to engage anymore. A prime example is the Lamas fight.

 

[turbozed]

She gassed in 5 minutes and that being at 135 doesn't really make your point any better. If I was on Souza I'd be even more confident as a 20 pound weight cut will only make that even worse. Souza has gassed before like vs Hill but she almost finished the fight early and still hung in their making the final round very competitive almost getting multiple submissions. Frota on the other hand resorted to an winging over hand every few seconds and any half decent fighter would of crushed her.

As for her BJJ as I acknowledged in my original point she has a decent offensive guard but she's subbed nobody decent and gassed hard trying to before and with her wrestling, judo and MMA grappling experience Souza will probably pass her guard easily. If Souza gets an early takedown, which is very likely, you'll be relying on her to get a first round submission off her back or she'll just gas and likely get subbed herself the next round if not TKO'd. Then on the feet she is defensively awful against a tough hard hitting opponent and while she may of learnt to throw a half decent cross it's really not impressive and nowhere near the level of Souza's previous competition that she beat.

Also not sure how you can call her and Santos totally different strikers when as I pointed out they have the same massive defensive flaws. Overall Astra fight team as a whole is a bunch of can crushers and the only people they've actually got to the UFC are in the weakest divisions barring maybe Glaico Franca and Tills run training there the best they've really achieved is Albini, who skillwise is pretty dreadful and his skill mainly comes from boxing experience before he came to MMA. Most of there top fighters have at best competed in Bellator and looked pretty mediocre before returning back to can crushing and record padding.

I'm all for acknowledging fighter progression but you can't completely change a fighter in 18 months. Was initially going to pass on the fight but they'll probably be a lot of ways to play Souza once props come out as you can hedge pretty easily with Frota R1. If not just livebet Souza as Frota fades.

I think I agree with a lot of this. Cardio is a huge issue. We can kinda explain it away in the Mayra split dec fight becuase she blew her wad looking for a finish in Rd1 and Mayra was probably a bigger gal (Mayra fought Amanda Lemos, a 135 lber, to a draw, so perhaps she's not that bad either despite her record). But Frota also gassed against 1-0 cutie Tataine Couto for no apparent reason at all breathing heavy halfway through the first round. Was bizarre because she was in control of the action. Some speculation that she injured herself?

Frota does have a great guard game but it's hard to bank on a girl winning off her back. I think if she fails to get a sub she's probably going to get finished late or drop the last two rounds due to those cardio issues. Her striking only looked good in the DWCS fight and she relies on her chin a bit too much to win exchanges. It's both a blessing and a curse. She's unfazed by big shots but doesn't care about defense at all. So far, none of her opponents were good enough to punish her for this. But Livia may be able to.

Kinda hard to back a girl who likes to fight off her back and has poor striking defense. Still, there's a lot of raw talent there and I see a ton of improvement in a short time frame. She might be a live dog if she continues to improve, and if the size advantage is there, but I'll probably swerve and look for props to bet on.

My favorite moment of taping Frota is her very first fight after she wins she goes to the center of a cage and does this odd victory jump in the air and falls on the ground. Was hilarious.

 

[PolarBearPaulVarelans]

She is possibly the most butch WMMA fighter, she has prison looking tattoos on her face. Also her voice is crazy deep, I bet she takes testosterone.

I hope that's not true, as testosterone wreaks tremendous havoc on a woman's body, up to and including death.

Anavar is the clear anabolic steroid of choice for women.

Watched tape on Walker, difficult to come to any real conclusion.... with the exception of his karate ish stance, hes looked completely different from a few fights i looked at.... stationary in one, active/ feigning with Rountree....
his technique whether its standup or on the ground isn’t particularly crisp nor is his calliber of opposition inspiring but hes a freak athlete whose athletism i think can cover for him in this fight.

Ledet in his last fight did not inspire confidence in any manner imo. Perhaps Rakic is a killer who fought way down in talent but there wasnt much to speak positively of Ledet there.
-275 Walker is a bit of a stretch but if it comes down i think ill pull the trigger

After relatively minor improvement over the course of years, Walker looked vastly better in his Contender Series victory and then against Rountree.

Rountree is a maddening waste of talent. His striking is downright excellent, and that left hand is one of the most vicious and powerful in all of MMA, but he shoots himself in the foot repeatedly through his poor grappling, atrocious cardio, and against Walker, low fight IQ and lack of preparation.

I recall coming across a Reddit AMA where Rountree mentions that he doesn't specifically prepare for any opponent.

I should have factored that into my analysis of his last fight, as it was very much his undoing against Walker. The only thing Rountree needed to do to win was avoid the clinch, as that is the one area where Walker could beat him.

So what does Rountree do? Try to punch through Walker's monstrous Thai plum.

Ledet might do far better than Rountree by simply being smarter and actually preparing.

 

[Kyle Stephens]

Aldo power is underrated. Just because he pointfighted for years does not mean he is not one of the most powerful FWs.

In my old, old as fuck preparation for Aldo v Conor fight I noticed that Aldo's power is quite scattered for a dude with numerous title defences. He IS powerfull, there is no doubt about that! But he is kinda closing his eyes and chucking them hands. And as a result of that he lands often on the forhead, nose, cheeks... and sometimes not even with the knuckes of the fist but the inside part where your fingers are clenching - I don't know what is the name of that, especially true for his left hook. It's his throw away punch to set up other things a lot of the times and he is slapping with it or downright just touching the opponent.

His handspeed is still one of the best in the division, but placement of his punches makes him not as dangerous as he could be. We know a person can take a lot of damage to the top of the head, but if you hit the chin just right - it's over. Nowhere this was more obvious than in his fight with Conor, where he actually landed a powerfull left hook, but it was on the eyebrow of Conor, but Conor's shot landed flush on his chin.

 

[edole]

I just think that Moicano's height and reach will give Aldo problems. If his last fight is any indication, he is going to stand right in front of Moicano.

Aldo did a fair enough job of avoiding a lot of Stephens punches, but Moicano has a better reach than Stephen's and clearly out pointed him on the feet when they fought eachother.

I think Moicano will actually have better foot work and movement in this fight.

I am leaning towards playing Moicano, but hoping the line improves.

Moicano has title aspirations, and Aldo is obviously at the end of his road.

 

[Larthus]

Love the spot Lyman Good is in. Maia is on his way out, legit only has one path to victory which is his takedown into immediate sub combo he loves to spam.

 

[mposhtkouhi]

Bontorin-ko2
Nurmagademov-dec
Rozenstruck-dec
Griffin-dec
Borella-dec
Hernadez-dec
Souza-sub2
Walker-ko1
Teymur-dec
Good-ko2
Carneiro-dec
Moraes-dec

ALL EASY MONEY LOCK THEM IN NOW!!!!!!!!

 

[Austisthunder]

Around -170 but we'll never see that

I think this is probably accurate

I think an issue of mine is im willing to pay for juice a bit more than this group at large, but personally i think Walker should win this 7/10 times in a vacuum so to me the current line is semi palatable.

 

[ClipYourDirtyWings]

I think this is probably accurate

I think an issue of mine is im willing to pay for juice a bit more than this group at large, but personally i think Walker should win this 7/10 times in a vacuum so to me the current line is semi palatable.

I almost never pay juice at all, maybe 1-2 slim favorites on a given card. Loaded the slip up with favorites last weekend against my better judgement and look how that turned out. Fuck MMA favorites. Especially WMMA favorites.

As for the striking they're gonna throw down, they're both from the ghetto and they're both violent. I just see Frota coming out on top

I have to pretty much agree with basically everything you've said about Frota. Taped a little of both girls last night/early this morning and from what I can see there's really nothing that drastically separates these two other than Frota seemingly being cleaner on the feet, a little more powerful, and a little more savage. +210 is a fucking joke for a fight like this. Betting against the butchy broads never works out well in WMMA either, unless it's Bec Rawlings.

Love the spot Lyman Good is in. Maia is on his way out, legit only has one path to victory which is his takedown into immediate sub combo he loves to spam.

I initially thought -165 was a great line for Maia, now I'm thinking it might be a bit too juiced. They've both been in the game for a long, long time. Good is younger but really has only been competing in MMA for 4 years less than Maia, so career wise they are at similar points.

Other than a KO, or Woodley-esque snoozefest, I really don't see how Good wins this. Good hits pretty hard and has a chin like a brick shithouse, but other than that what is he really good at? Maia has only been KO'd once in his career by a juiced-to-Neptune Nate Marquardt. I don't like the idea in principle of betting on a 40 y/o on a 3 fight skid, but Maia is sort of an outlier imo; those three losses have come against literally the best 3 fighters in the division, and they were nightmare stylistic matchups for Maia.

Give me Maia ML closer to -150 and I think Maia is the play, and of course Maia sub.