UFN 144 on ESPN+ 2 Assuncao vs Moraes II

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by JimGunn, Jan 15, 2019.

  1. JimGunn

    JimGunn Silver Belt

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  2. Gugabe

    Gugabe Purple Belt

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    Hoping Assuncao pulls it off.

    Aldo shouldn't be a dog in a 3 rounder.

    Tempted to fade Walker-hype with Ledet.

    Albini as a dog's not a bad spot.
     
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  3. Austisthunder

    Austisthunder Yellow Belt

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    Initial thots...

    Pulling the trigger on Ricardo Ramos at even money
    Well rounded striking and has an obvious ground/sub advantage here.. probably has the weight advantage as well with Said fighting at flyweight in his last bout
    Only issue I see with him is he can fade in the 3rd....
    Said is a decent stand up point fighter who wins via decision but if this is a close decision Ramos has the home field advantage...

    Agree with Gugabe that Aldo’s price is mismatched... in a 3 rounder I don’t see how Renato has an advantage in anyway here?

    Walker at -280 now seems like a trap.

    Maia in Brazil against an unranked opponent screams a retirement swan song to go out with a win to me. I don’t remember Lyman Good wrestling or on the ground in the last couple fights I saw him in. So I need to check on that.
     
  4. Macaque

    Macaque White Belt

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    I favor Moraes and gave him a 29-28 the first time around, but Assunção @2.75 has value.

    I like Moicano, but I like money a tad more. Reeeally loving Aldo @2.50, all things considered. People seem to be fading him again.

    I’m liking Maia @1.57 and Ramos @2.10 so far.

    Have to take a look at Teymur and Ledet. It’d also be good to go over Good’s tape again.
     
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  5. Broe.

    Broe. Orange Belt

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    People still havent figured out aldo does very bad against tall strikers with a reach advantage, i got moicano at 1.75.
     
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  6. Gugabe

    Gugabe Purple Belt

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    Based on what, exactly? The Conor KO was more of an aberration than anything resembing a full outstriking, and Aldo was landing a ton of heat on Holloway before he flagged due to Holloway's pace. Moicano doesn't have the durability, volume or gastank to pull that gameplan off.
     
  7. Broe.

    Broe. Orange Belt

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    uhmm, youth, reach, cardio, speed, leg kicks, durability.
     
  8. Broe.

    Broe. Orange Belt

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    Uhmm where did you see moicano having cardio or durability problems? He only struggled with ortega in the 3d round, but even holloway did.
     
  9. Gugabe

    Gugabe Purple Belt

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    Does he have Holloway (Who still dropped rounds and got nuked on by Aldo before Aldo gassed) level durability or cardio? Arguably two of Holloway's best assets. I think you're vastly oversimplifying how Holloway beat Aldo.
     
  10. Jordan3399

    Jordan3399 Green Belt

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    You think Moicano has a leg kick advantage over Aldo?

    Aldo is faster, hits harder, better technique, much better wrestler and Moicano won't be able to hit takedowns like he had to do vs Stephens and Ortega when pressured. Not to mention Moicano is one if the most pillow fisted guys in the division and Aldo still is solid if you can't make him gas anyway.
     
  11. Jordan3399

    Jordan3399 Green Belt

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    I think Teymur dominates Oliveira but will go over more tape. Way better striker with solid wrestling and can probably stuff Oliveira's attempts, think he likely finishes Oliveira too if he really wants it.

    Really like Thiago Alves. No idea how Griffin is such a big favourite when his biggest achievement was an underwhelming win over Mike Perry and Alves looked good vs Kunchenko in a very close fight. Pretty sure he just out-techniques Griffin to a decision.

    The Aldo line is just great should be flipped imo.

    Assuncao as a significant dog looks good. Likely going to be another competitive fight where either could finish over the 5 rounds.
     
  12. Broe.

    Broe. Orange Belt

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    Yes! I don't know if you have seen aldo fight recently, but he has almost become a pure boxer, go count all his leg kicks in his last 5 fights. I think he might have got some leg injury that prevents him from throwing a lot.
     
  13. Austisthunder

    Austisthunder Yellow Belt

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    Aldo does very bad against y’all strikers= mcgregor and Holloway

    The former was a fluke, and everyone struggles vs the latter, hence he’s the champ

    Also comparing Mocanio to either Holloway or mcgregor is a joke.
     
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  14. Jordan3399

    Jordan3399 Green Belt

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    Looking at who he was fighting and how it played out as he tried to use leg kicks in all his last 3 fights and before that there's clear reasons he didn't or why he didn't heavily use them with Max and Stephens.

    The Stephens fight was 4 minutes and he threw and landed 5 leg kicks still. Against Holloway again he kept trying to throw them but in both fights every time he would throw them Max was ready throwing hard counters up the middle to stop him going to it.

    Prior to that with Edgar he outboxed him because Edgar's great at hitting takedowns off kicks and Aldo knew it from the first fight.

    The Conor fight is just plain irrelevant.

    Chad, same as with Edgar.

    Either way I don't see leg kicks being a big part of either fighters game. Aldo boxes a lot because he's the best boxer in the division and throwing kicks leaves him unnecessarily vulnerable. As for Moicano you really think his leg kicks are anywhere near as good as Aldo's? Aside from vs Kattar who had absolutely zero response to the leg kicks when has he been that effective with them? He mostly just uses them as a point fighting tactic in most fights anyone that tried that with Aldo ended up losing a one sided striking match.
     
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  15. Oblivian

    Oblivian Aging Platinum Member

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    Big on Oliveira and Aldo here.
     
  16. Mommy

    Mommy White Belt

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    Oliveira can win outside of round 1 sub?
     
  17. ClipYourDirtyWings

    ClipYourDirtyWings The Best is Blessed

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    Going to get into tape tonight. Don’t see any great value right off the bat. Lines seem pretty accurate to me
     
  18. t6p

    t6p Brown Belt

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    Moicano had a lot of success with his leg kicks against Stephens as well. Stephens mobility was clearly compromised, especially in the 3rd round. I’m not saying he’ll necessarily use them here but it’s been a very effective technique for him.
     
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  19. Jordan3399

    Jordan3399 Green Belt

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    Good point, that's one fight that does concern me betting Aldo as Moicano looked so well rounded. I'm not trying to say his leg kicks are bad, definitely well above average but claiming they're better than Aldo's just seems a step too far. I don't think Aldo will ever be at a leg kick disadvantage unless he takes on someone like Barboza at lightweight who can match or outdo his power.
     
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  20. Austisthunder

    Austisthunder Yellow Belt

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    Just rewatched a few of moicanos fights.
    He’s very well rounded, high IQ, knows when to shoot a TD to steal a round but given that he lacks power.... I just flat out don’t see him out pointing Aldo here. Especially not at -170 in a 3 round fight . I’d say It should be a pick em fight if not a slight edge to Aldo.
     

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