UFN 144 on ESPN+ 2 Assuncao vs Moraes II

[burge13]

Agree with Aldo bettors completely. Moicano is incredibly skilled but where he has good skills, Aldo is better or can nullify...

Moicano won't land a TD to steal a round here, Aldo has the better boxing and more power + in a 3 round fight cardio 'shouldnt' play a big factor. I personally have Aldo at -115ish so +140 available is well worth it.

Alves might be worth a shot. Like Teymur but -180 is too steep for me, hopefully line moves my way. Don't think we have seen enough of Walker to justify -280 either? Ledet might also be worth a small play

 

[Gugabe]

Agree with Aldo bettors completely. Moicano is incredibly skilled but where he has good skills, Aldo is better or can nullify...

Moicano won't land a TD to steal a round here, Aldo has the better boxing and more power + in a 3 round fight cardio 'shouldnt' play a big factor. I personally have Aldo at -115ish so +140 available is well worth it.

Alves might be worth a shot. Like Teymur but -180 is too steep for me, hopefully line moves my way. Don't think we have seen enough of Walker to justify -280 either? Ledet might also be worth a small play

Alves beat Kunchenko, IMO, but a lot of that was due to Kunchenko not doing anything for the first 10 minutes of the fight. Griffin should be a lot more active.

 

[Jordan3399]

Think Oliveria either wins by opportunistic sub or loses a one sided fight and I don't like his chances of getting one. Teymur is the much better striker and has great TDD, cardio and toughness. Teymur also throws hard and Oliveria hates adversity, wouldn't be surprised at all if he just has a couple of takedowns stuffed then crumbles on the feet, his pressure style plays right into Teymurs counters too. Don't think he's lost a UFC round aside from maybe the first with Vannata (although he won 30-27 on every card) and shutdown Lentz wrestling comfortably last fight.

If Oliveira could reliably hit takedowns it would be much more competitive but the only guys to do that on Teymur were Vannata and Klose and it was a few seconds before he was back on his feet even with Klose who managed to land in side control.

Not rushing to bet as the line looks like it'll improve a bit and I want to see Oliveria's sub line.

 

[ill800]

After Aldo’s recent performances I don’t feel comfortable betting on him against someone like moicano who can easily outwork him.

I really don’t think he has three round cardio anymore. He can’t take punches like he used to either.

 

[burge13]

After Aldo’s recent performances I don’t feel comfortable betting on him against someone like moicano who can easily outwork him.

I really don’t think he has three round cardio anymore. He can’t take punches like he used to either.

He won a performance bonus last time out and Moicano doesn't have the constant pressure, boxing or cardio that Max does. Fair enough if you think he's taken too much damage, better to play safe, but i don't agree Moicano can or will easily outwork him.

 

[Jordan3399]

Mara Romero Borella over Taila Santos looks good. (edited)

Not impressed by Santos at all. She has faced nobody close to UFC calibre on her 15-0 record including Estefani Almeida who she beat on the Brazilian DWTNC show where she won a decision over another Brazilian can crusher with another padded record. Before that fight she hadn't fought since 2016 and the two fights she had then were against opponents that have combined records of 0-10 and that's a pretty familiar theme throughout her career of her fighting the lowest Brazilian WMMA could offer. Her game is mostly weak attempts at grappling and a striking style that consists of long punches with the occasional combo and a lot of naked leg kicks with her defence to just lean away and move backwards.

As for Borella I think she should of got the nod over Chookagian who is currently number 3 in the rankings (although rankings are a complete joke at 125) and prior to that she dominated Kalindra Faria. This just looks like another padded Brazilian with a scary looking record swaying the odds. Borella has solid overall game and has looked good on her recent run fighting out of ATT so I'm more than happy to fade a fighter with a record that padded against her, she just looks like she's on another level to Santos and aside from their records I don't see why the line shouldn't be flipped at least.

Borella should have a comfortable edge anywhere the fight goes and can probably take her down and dominate like she did with Faria. Santos leaves so many openings to get takendown and counterstruck her opponents have just been such low level and failed to exploit them. Borella should easily chop her legs down or score takedowns her defence is so weak, Almeida tried this and got briefly to decent positions but her wrestling was terrible and she quit rapidly on them at the first sign of resistance. Borella isn't amazing but she's a legit WMMA fighter at a great camp training with top fighters like Ansaroff and Nunes and has already proven herself against fighters a level above Santos. As soon as the line stabilises I'm gonna bet her and probably a bit on her sub prop too, I can't see why she should be a dog at all here.

 

[Oblivian]

Oliveira can win outside of round 1 sub?

Definitely. I think he can sub during any round. Don't forget he also blanketed Stephens over 3. Going off memory, I think Oliveira's more recent losses all involved his opponent surviving ground exchanges and then finishing on the ground. I don't see Teymur going this route. Every opponent pretty much wants to avoid grappling, and they never can. I've seen people state that this will either be a sub for Oliveira or a lopsided decision for Teymur, but that's really not how Oliveira's fights go. He wins a round even in losses, and it's not always the first (Pettis iirc). I think this line is flipped honestly.

 

[Stunna77]

Aldo's cardio issues are very overstated. People need to understand that Max doesn't gas people simply by throwing volume, he gases people because he gives them zero space to breath and is always making them react, whether by feinting or throwing. Edgar is a volume king and Aldo embarrassed him over 5 rounds. Max also breaks people with his durability, Aldo landed some absolute bombs on him in the first fight and he just kept coming, highly doubt Moicano eats those same shots.The Moicano to Holloway comparisions essentially stop at them both being strikers and being tall for the division. Not a fan of MMA math, but Ortega vs Moicano striking looked waaay different than Ortega (an improved version btw) vs Holloway striking, no?

 

[Austisthunder]

Aldo's cardio issues are very overstated. People need to understand that Max doesn't gas people simply by throwing volume, he gases people because he gives them zero space to breath and is always making them react, whether by feinting or throwing. Edgar is a volume king and Aldo embarrassed him over 5 rounds. Max also breaks people with his durability, Aldo landed some absolute bombs on him in the first fight and he just kept coming, highly doubt Moicano eats those same shots.The Moicano to Holloway comparisions essentially stop at them both being strikers and being tall for the division. Not a fan of MMA math, but Ortega vs Moicano striking looked waaay different than Ortega (an improved version btw) vs Holloway striking, no?

Agreed on the analysis, I think somehow Max is still underrated and therefore Aldo is seen as a has been for losing to him twice
Aldo will be setting the pace here so no cardio issues

I don’t think Jose is quite 100% what he used to be 5 years ago but he isn’t that old and I flat out don’t see a scenario in this fight that I don’t like his chances in.
At range trading kicks? I’m fine with that,
A brawl/ close distance? Fine
On the ground? Fine

Moicanos path to victory here is a highway robbery split decision due to getting a useless TD for 10 seconds in the end of rounds.

 

[Stunna77]

Agreed on the analysis, I think somehow Max is still underrated and therefore Aldo is seen as a has been for losing to him twice
Aldo will be setting the pace here so no cardio issues

I don’t think Jose is quite 100% what he used to be 5 years ago but he isn’t that old and I flat out don’t see a scenario in this fight that I don’t like his chances in.
At range trading kicks? I’m fine with that,
A brawl/ close distance? Fine
On the ground? Fine

Moicanos path to victory here is a highway robbery split decision due to getting a useless TD for 10 seconds in the end of rounds.

I could see Moicaino edging a close fight or if Aldo has truly declined win a clearer decision, but I am not on the Aldo is faded train because he lost to the greatest FW on the planet who happens to be a stylistic nightmare for him. The Conor fight has zero relevance.

 

[Kyle Stephens]

People still havent figured out aldo does very bad against tall strikers with a reach advantage, i got moicano at 1.75.

He has problems v all guys who can strike. His style is anti-wrestling to the core. If you have some decent striking his own edge in striking becomes smaller and it's not like he has plan B (like active wrestling game). I see lotta fellas wanting to bet the vet Aldo on a + odds, but use caution here. For Aldo I like that it is a 3 rounder, but still I have to give the slight edge to Moicano. Younger, fresher, hungrier. I think the boy will come up with good gameplan and will win a 2-1 decision. 1st round Aldo is gonna take it most likely.

I think Teymur dominates Oliveira but will go over more tape. Way better striker with solid wrestling and can probably stuff Oliveira's attempts, think he likely finishes Oliveira too if he really wants it.

Go over that tape, Jordan. Because I don't know about that solid wrestling. He is not tested v really grindy wrestlers (look at his fight with Wrzosek in the TUF house). Vannata is kinda undersized LW (who didn't go hard for takedowns, he wanted to scrap on the feet) and Klose was 2 fights into UFC at that time and with not very deep wrestling or grappling toolkit to really challenge Teymur. What I saw from Teymur in Lentz fight is cause for concern. His left kick from southpaw stance is not disguised very well and sets him up to being taken down. Oli loves that kind of gifts.

When I lost a bet I spend additional time researching the fighter who lost me money and his opponent. I put Miller in a parlay with other fighters and he lost to Do Bronx. So I think I have good grasp on what Charles is good at. Oliveira turned a corner in his last 3 fights. He makes a lot less mistakes because he lets the other fighter mess up first and then pounce. And he has an insurance - it the opponent fights safe, Oliveira then applies pressure and provoke the opponent to make that crutial mistake. And he really only needs one or two mistakes. Oliveira has a giant edge over Teymur in UFC experience. Not only that, he is young and not shopworn fighter like Lentz. And his edge on the ground is off the charts here. I can't predict what will happen for sure in that fight, but one thing I am sure - I don't like to pay the juice for Teymur v some crafty vet like Oliveira.

My gut tells me Oliveira do well enough on the feet to not get obliterated (like in some of his losses) and this buys him time. On the 1st, 2nd or max 3rd opportunity to grapple he is taking Teymur's back (or a limb) and he chokes him out.

 

[Stunna77]

He has problems v all guys who can strike.

While Aldo has beat a lost of wrestler's he has beaten plenty of guys "who can strike". With a resume like his I don't understand how you can say he has problems vs all guys who can strike, that is quite laughable. He has had legit problems with Max and Max alone. And truth be told if Max's chin wasn't GOAT Aldo probably finishes him in the first fight. Conor fight tells us little about how a rematch would look IMO and Moiciano has zero comparision to Conor so frankly it doesn't matter. Mendes gave him a competetive fight, but Mendes boxing is also damn good and he has the TD threat and big power. Besides that he essentially blew through the following, who are all upper echelon in terms of striking:

Stephens
Frankie x2
Mendesx2
Lamas
KZ
Ken-flo
Hominick
Swanson

Shit even Faber in the WEC days was a "guy who can strike"

 

[Kyle Stephens]

When I wrote "problems" what did you thought I meant?
Just the fights that he lost?
I'm sure you are smarter than that. After all, you are the "#1 Stunna"!!!!

His easiest fights were v guys with wrestling and/or grappling as leading martial art and had only serviceable striking - guys that can defend themselves standing up and stay in the fight, but can't do much more if their other aspects of their game are denied. He faced a lot of wrestlers/grapplers, like the majority of his career in WEC/UFC. But when a wrestler like Mendes decided he is gonna just strike with Aldo - he did a lot worse (still won, tho). If Mendes was a little longer and able to change his tactics round to round I'm fucking sure he was gonna win that fight. Aldo recognised the patterns quicker and was able to adapt to what Mendes showed him.

It's clear that Aldo doesn't want to be pressured too much (with striking) or made to only lead. He wants a relatively slow tempo where he has enough space and time to counter and then angle out and reset. I don't know about you, but to me Aldo was on his way to be knocked out in that fight with Lil Heathen if he didn't score that devastating liver shot. He was going to be a cast from the walking dead series in the 2nd and 3rd and Stephens is never tired and throw heat until the final bell. He didn't look too good v Stephens, who is known for his striking, albeit a very wild striking.

Best wishes for ya, Stunna. I know you wasn't very kind to me in the past, but I try to be as respectfull as I can because don't want more trouble. I'm here to contribute and have fun. Nothing more.

 

[Stunna77]

When I wrote "problems" what did you thought I meant?
Just the fights that he lost?
I'm sure you are smarter than that. After all, you are the "#1 Stunna"!!!!

His easiest fights were v guys with wrestling and/or grappling as leading martial art and had only serviceable striking - guys that can defend themselves standing up and stay in the fight, but can't do much more if their other aspects of their game are denied. He faced a lot of wrestlers/grapplers, like the majority of his career in WEC/UFC. But when a wrestler like Mendes decided he is gonna just strike with Aldo - he did a lot worse (still won, tho). If Mendes was a little longer and able to change his tactics round to round I'm fucking sure he was gonna win that fight. Aldo recognised the patterns quicker and was able to adapt to what Mendes showed him.

It's clear that Aldo doesn't want to be pressured too much (with striking) or made to only lead. He wants a relatively slow tempo where he has enough space and time to counter and then angle out and reset. I don't know about you, but to me Aldo was on his way to be knocked out in that fight with Lil Heathen if he didn't score that devastating liver shot. He was going to be a cast from the walking dead series in the 2nd and 3rd and Stephens is never tired and throw heat until the final bell. He didn't look too good v Stephens, who is known for his striking, albeit a very wild striking.

Best wishes for ya, Stunna. I know you wasn't very kind to me in the past, but I try to be as respectfull as I can because don't want more trouble. I'm here to contribute and have fun. Nothing more.

Yeah we can leave it man, we just don't see Aldo fights the same and you like to speculate a lot. For example, if mendes was a little longer he also probably wouldn't be as explosive or carry as much power. He was never in trouble against Jeremy and actually beat him at his own game. Saying he would be walking dead in the 2nd and 3rd is again 100% speculation. I cap Aldo as a slight favorite here, assuming improvements from Moiciano continue. Best of luck.

 

[Naught2Sixty]

Is Kyle Wiks troll account?

 

[Kyle Stephens]

I'm fine with leaving it, too.

 

[Jordan3399]

Been over more tape on Teymur-Oliveira. Still don't like Oliveira's chances outside of a submission but he has a good chance of one. Teymur's TDD just has an explosive urgency to it with decent technique similar to Barboza or Aldo that is really effective and will make it hard for a guy like Oliveira to get him down, seems more like Oliveira will be shooting just to create grappling exchanges and from there will need to take the back and finish.

I do think if Oliveira is non-stop pressuring and doesn't get hurt badly he could gas out Teymur a bit due to his explosion heavy style and then his chance of a decision win will go up a lot but again if Teymur slows he's probably getting subbed. Oliveira's only 2 UFC decisions were Stephens and Edgar both of which have great sub defence and toughness and even then were both almost submitted.

Teymur's southpaw body kick should do a lot of damage too as Pettis hurt Oliveira badly with it repeatedly, which is not too surprising as his high stance, similar to Cerrone makes it a easy target. His movement and awareness to stay off the cage is excellent too, Lentz had a couple of good moments where he got bodylocks but Teymur defended easily enough even with a brief fence grab and potential eye poke and that's an NCAA Division 1 wrestler and similarly Klose, a Michigan state champ and Vannata who is a solid wrestler but dropped out of College very early to train at JacksonWink could only control him for a matter of seconds at best. Overall I'm confident in his TDD I'm just wary of the scrambles where Oliveira could take the back.

Teymur's sub defence is a bit of an unknown too as nobody could test it yet. Lentz locked in his guillotine at one point and Teymur was very quick to defend which I was impressed with but if Oliveira takes his back it'll be a whole different level. Also Oliveira is a very rangey opponent for Teymur to deal with but I'm confident his use of the southpaw stance similar to Shevchenko or Saenchai to control range will help a lot combined with his hard body shots to cut Oliveira's forward momentum.

Overall, I've got 2U on Teymur at -175 which I may or may not keep depending on props when they come out but the line was getting worse so I put it down. Oliveira sub will be juiced af probably but Teymur KO could be solid, I think it'll be undervalued after 3 decision wins.

 

[Kyle Stephens]

I have love and hate relations with opportunistic mofos. Do Bronx burned me v Miller (if Miller was not such big underdog I prolly wouldn't bet him, tho), I was able to make some bucks from T-City on his rise to the title. But fighters who lose until they don't generally are not kind to my pocket. I can't pinpoint where they'll slip. The odds on their fights dictate where I'm gonna place my money more than what I see on the tape, it seems like.

 

[theTKDguy]

Like aldo in a 3 rounder at dog odds and ramos. Ledet, alves and teymur are also interesting

 

[Wiktoruspro]

Is Kyle Wiks troll account?

His english is better than mine so no.
I like Ricardo Ramos and Max Griffin. Lyman Good has also a chance to win against old Maia