UFN 144 on ESPN+ 2 Assuncao vs Moraes II

I’m progressively higher and higher on Aldo here. He got KO’d by Conor in a second and lost two in a row to the FW GOAT (both of those fights were more competitive early on than people act like they were). Now he’s a dog to Moicano?

Moicano is very good, but he doesn’t have the same skillset Max does to put that type of a beating on Aldo. Moicano doesn’t have the durability Max does to eat Aldo bombs, either.

I also think Maia is priced reasonably. He’s had nightmare matchups in his recent losses, but he’s a talent-level above Good, a guy with a solid chin who can brawl and not much else.

Looking to bounce back from that abysmal first card of the year with a vengeance on this one.
 
Ok so I like this Sarah Frota at +210

Reminds me of when I picked Johnny Walker over Rountree. Walker fought on DWTNCS Brazil, he was unknown, overlooked and underestimated, now look at him, -280 vs Ledet.

No ones knows who Frota is, I saw her months ago when she competed on DWTNCS Brazil and she impressed me more than any of the other girls on that show did. She dominated her opponent with striking and pressure. Showed some good muay thai, solid punching power and was unfazed by anything her opponent landed.

So I was thinking Frota was just a striker but it also turns out she's a BJJ blackbelt. Frota is 31 years old, only started competing in pro MMA in 2016 but has quickly put together a 9-0 record, I think her experience in muay thai and BJJ is the reason for her fast rise. Frota trains out of Astra Fight Team, one of the better MMA gyms in Brazil.

Souza and Frota aren't so different, both Brazilian fighters with that Brazilian skillset, good muay thai and BJJ but the wrestling is lacking. Souza has a decent edge in experience here and I think that is her biggest advantage.

I just think Frota looks like a much cleaner striker, Souza is wild, throws a lot of loopy/wide punches, she's powerful and agressive but so is Frota. I think if this stays standing, Frota is going to look good. Both girls are BJJ blackbelts.

Timestapped Frota's DWTNCS fight
 
Also if you type in Sarah Frota to google, the 1st recommend search suggestion is 'Sarah Frota man'

She's an intimidating looking woman
 
This fight card seems to be a good one and a trap for Johnny Walker. My mind wants Walker but Ledet could just stun Walker with an early submission 1st round.

Need to see some tapes on Ledet.
 
ill800 said:
I thought he looked pretty bad and was lucky to win that fight

It was like a Hail Mary body shot.

I think aldo is a mental midget. Not meaning that he’s stupid but after the Conor fight he’s really never been the same. He lost his mental edge and I don’t think his heart is in it.

The only thing that concerns me about moicano is his chin. Remember him getting dropped 3 times from jabs from suckmouth
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Suckmouth? Dropped by jabs? You confusing fighters?
 
Jordan3399 said:
I thought his defence was good tbh, but his footwork was lacking. When Stephens came forward and backed him up against the cage Aldo's head movement was solid and very few of Stephens bombs landed and any that did seemed to only piss Aldo off and not hurt him. At the same time in that exchange Aldo landed something hard to cause Stephens to initially back off and then lead to the finish. It was sort of the worst Aldo we'd seen a while but not ever, he fought like he did early in his career where he legitimately wanted to hurt his opponent and not just win, so his usual highly technical approach went out the window but the technique was still there.

The fact he took everything Stephens had no problem was my biggest takeaway as so many people were acting like it would be an easy KO for him. Aldo's fight IQ seems to be the biggest decline in recent years though, I don't think we've seen him fight particularly smart since he beat Lamas so going up against dangerous finishers like Conor and Holloway without an intelligent gameplan hurt him badly. On the other hand Moicano doesn't have that dangerous finishing ability so I'm not concerned.
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He didn't take everything Stephens had no problem. He was wobbling all over the place and was hurt
 
SBJJ said:
He didn't take everything Stephens had no problem. He was wobbling all over the place and was hurt
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What were you watching? He got wild and swung some off balance punches but he wasn't wobbled and hurt and when the exchange was over it was Stephens cut badly and backing away. I think you need to rewatch the fight.
 
SBJJ said:
I had a pretty large bet on Aldo against Stephens

But am I crazy or was that the legit worse Aldo I have ever seen? I get it he won in a Brawl. But he looked slow off balance. His defense looked horrible. He looked stuck in mud
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I personally thought Aldo looked awful as well. Not his strikes so much...he still threw really good punches and kicks, but just his overall movement. He looked very plodding and stiff. It also seemed like Stephens stung him with something in a flurry buts it's tough to tell what did it. He recovered well though.
 
@SBJJ rewatched it now and Aldo took shots absolutely fine. He landed a clean uppercut counter so Stephens swung wildly but only clipped him with one hook as Aldo circled out, he tried to land a big overhand counter to a leg kick after but if you watch it in slowmotion you can clearly see it doesn't connect as Aldo leans away. Aldo doesn't wobble after that he is trying to circle out but the cage cuts him off so he does a lot of erratic footwork as he goes right, gets cut off then goes left and clinches briefly as Stephens misses another left hook completely. Stephens keeps swinging as Aldo tries to escape but all he lands is a left hook that clips the very top of Aldo's head. Then with Aldo against the fence Stephens just grazes him repeatedly at best until eventually he does actually land a flush uppercut on his third attempt, straight after that Aldo opens up and Stephens pushes straight off and tries to back away.

Overall, I'd like to partially retract my statement of him taking everything Stephens had because most of what Stephens had completely missed. He did however take 2 pretty hard right hands and not look wobbled at all, just pissed off and far more inclined to throw his own off balance winging shots back which as Stephens tried a collar tie Cormier style made him again off balance, but not rocked.

In your defence Anik said Aldo was hurt after the overhand counter Stephens attempted as it landed at the same time as the leg kick so it sounded like it connected but it just didn't. The only really good punch he even lands is the uppercut at 2:34 and Aldo just grabbed an underhook and began advancing forward fine.

Also I'd like to add this arguably shows an improvement in the fight IQ of Aldo from the first fight as he actively tried to evade Stephens rather than brawl twice and only when he was totally cut off did he just advance forward swinging. Against Holloway he was happy to brawl whenever the opportunity was there.

Cheers for making me more confident betting Aldo his defence and fight IQ look better than ever :)
 
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Still sitting on line movement for Ramos-Nurmagomedov, but if Ramos ML continues to trend towards even money, I like him there.

Nurmagomedov had to pull out everything he had to beat Justin Scoggins, and he very arguably lost that fight. Scoggins isn't a bad fighter, he's been in there with some tough guys and has a win over Ray Borg, but is currently on a 4 fight losing skid.

Ramos is super legit on the ground, great ability to end up on top in scrambles. But he's struggled to finish guys in the UFC. He had Tanaka and Kang both in compromising positions but was unable to finish them. Even his finish of Zahabi came late and that fight was very back and forth before that.

I haven't been overly impressed with either guy, but Ramos is taller, longer, seems to be faster and has a bit more pop in his shots. All of Ramos's fights in the UFC have been gritty and he's survived and won them all. He has a much better finishing rate than Nurmagomedov on the regional circuit as well.

Not super confident but I think Ramos is deserving of a small play at even money or as a slim favorite. I may also hit the ITD line depending on where that opens as I can easily see Ramos club-and-subbing Nurmagomedov or dropping him and finishing with GNP. He showed decent GNP early in the Tanaka fight despite not being able to finish Tanaka (Tanaka is tough, though -- very durable and has never been finished).

Current Ramos line is -130 but I'd like to see -120 or better before I make a play there.
 
thewiggo said:
Jairzinho @ 4/5 is criminal.
May be one of my biggest bets ever.

75/6 kickboxing rec with multiple titles.
He’s going to wipe the floor with Albini and embarrass him more than his infamous nappy.
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I saw your post, decided to look into it and just re-watched Rozenstruik's most recent fight against Ukrainian heavyweight can crusher Andrey Kovalev at Rizin FF 10 and I am not so sure that is a good idea. Rozenstruik's head movement defense is terrible for an experienced kickboxer- he got punched multiple times hard right in the face and head by Kovalev in round 1 in between delivering his own effective strikes and then was helpless on his back after getting taken down by Kovalev in round 2. He only won the fight by split decision because Kovalev tried a sloppy takedown in round 3 and ended up on the bottom and then got exhausted and tried other bad takedowns. Junior on the other hand has knocked out Timothy Johnson in the UFC and gone the distance striking on the feet with former UFC champion Andrei Arlovski. Losing by ezekiel choke to Alexei Oleinik has no bearing on this matchup. Albini has also never been knocked out or TKOed himself, which I think is Rozenstruik's only way to win this. Rozenstruik also got really tired at the end of round 3 in his Rizin fight. I'm actually leaning on making a big bet on the other side and backing the much more proven Junior Albini especially with Rozenstruik stepping in to replace Dmitry Sosnovskiy on short notice.
 
SBJJ said:
Suckmouth? Dropped by jabs? You confusing fighters?
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Yup, not moicano. So there goes that concern lol

I can’t spell the guys name off the top of my head so I just make up names, like suckatash
 
ClipYourDirtyWings said:
Nurmagomedov had to pull out everything he had to beat Justin Scoggins, and he very arguably lost that fight. Scoggins isn't a bad fighter, he's been in there with some tough guys and has a win over Ray Borg, but is currently on a 4 fight losing skid.
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That was a total robbery, every media outlet had it 29-28 or 30-27 Scoggins and it wasn't even close. At best you could give Said the last round as he finally landed a takedown.
 
Jordan3399 said:
That was a total robbery, every media outlet had it 29-28 or 30-27 Scoggins and it wasn't even close. At best you could give Said the last round as he finally landed a takedown.
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Yep. I had a decent play on Scoggins there and was upset with that decision. It was just as egregious when I watched it for the second time just now.
 
Watched tape on Walker, difficult to come to any real conclusion.... with the exception of his karate ish stance, hes looked completely different from a few fights i looked at.... stationary in one, active/ feigning with Rountree....
his technique whether its standup or on the ground isn’t particularly crisp nor is his calliber of opposition inspiring but hes a freak athlete whose athletism i think can cover for him in this fight.

Ledet in his last fight did not inspire confidence in any manner imo. Perhaps Rakic is a killer who fought way down in talent but there wasnt much to speak positively of Ledet there.
-275 Walker is a bit of a stretch but if it comes down i think ill pull the trigger
 
Jordan3399 said:
@SBJJ rewatched it now and Aldo took shots absolutely fine. He landed a clean uppercut counter so Stephens swung wildly but only clipped him with one hook as Aldo circled out, he tried to land a big overhand counter to a leg kick after but if you watch it in slowmotion you can clearly see it doesn't connect as Aldo leans away. Aldo doesn't wobble after that he is trying to circle out but the cage cuts him off so he does a lot of erratic footwork as he goes right, gets cut off then goes left and clinches briefly as Stephens misses another left hook completely. Stephens keeps swinging as Aldo tries to escape but all he lands is a left hook that clips the very top of Aldo's head. Then with Aldo against the fence Stephens just grazes him repeatedly at best until eventually he does actually land a flush uppercut on his third attempt, straight after that Aldo opens up and Stephens pushes straight off and tries to back away.

Overall, I'd like to partially retract my statement of him taking everything Stephens had because most of what Stephens had completely missed. He did however take 2 pretty hard right hands and not look wobbled at all, just pissed off and far more inclined to throw his own off balance winging shots back which as Stephens tried a collar tie Cormier style made him again off balance, but not rocked.

In your defence Anik said Aldo was hurt after the overhand counter Stephens attempted as it landed at the same time as the leg kick so it sounded like it connected but it just didn't. The only really good punch he even lands is the uppercut at 2:34 and Aldo just grabbed an underhook and began advancing forward fine.

Also I'd like to add this arguably shows an improvement in the fight IQ of Aldo from the first fight as he actively tried to evade Stephens rather than brawl twice and only when he was totally cut off did he just advance forward swinging. Against Holloway he was happy to brawl whenever the opportunity was there.

Cheers for making me more confident betting Aldo his defence and fight IQ look better than ever :)
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I think you should bet as much as you can afford on Also. I'd love a better price on Moicano

In fact after watching the fight again I think Also looks better than ever and as fast as lightning. Moicano doesn't stand a chance
 
Austisthunder said:
Watched tape on Walker, difficult to come to any real conclusion.... with the exception of his karate ish stance, hes looked completely different from a few fights i looked at.... stationary in one, active/ feigning with Rountree....
his technique whether its standup or on the ground isn’t particularly crisp nor is his calliber of opposition inspiring but hes a freak athlete whose athletism i think can cover for him in this fight.

Ledet in his last fight did not inspire confidence in any manner imo. Perhaps Rakic is a killer who fought way down in talent but there wasnt much to speak positively of Ledet there.
-275 Walker is a bit of a stretch but if it comes down i think ill pull the trigger
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You late to the party, Walker was +200 vs that bum Khalil, I took that +200

But I ain't about to take -275 against an opponent that was better than his last. Walker should win this though
 
Dianabol said:
You late to the party, Walker was +200 vs that bum Khalil, I took that +200

But I ain't about to take -275 against an opponent that was better than his last. Walker should win this though
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At what price would you take Walker here?
 
i haven't done full tape but my early impression is that ledet is being grossly underrated here.
 
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