UFN 144 on ESPN+ 2 Assuncao vs Moraes II

[Jordan3399]

Big swing with money on Oliveira. I'm a little lucky with the lag on British books but arbed a bit, others might be able to still potentially.

Loving Teymur's to line now though assuming he's all good to fight. Definitely feel it's his fight to lose.

 

[Jordan3399]

If anything, I'm actually a little concerned with Moicanos third round gas tank.

He noticeably slowed down against Ortega and Stephens.

Ideally, that would be the round hed put a stamp on a decision victory.

Maybe Aldo +3.5?

Good point, I also trust Aldo to fight till the end as always even when he's tired. Showed no quit against Max while as you say we've seen Moicano inclined to let the fight go a bit at the end as he slows down. Not sure if Aldo will fight a fight that causes Moicano to fade though, Stephens and Ortega both have great cardio and the latter fight was the kind of pace that would of more than likely slowed Aldo down too.

 

[turbozed]

Good point, I also trust Aldo to fight till the end as always even when he's tired. Showed no quit against Max while as you say we've seen Moicano inclined to let the fight go a bit at the end as he slows down. Not sure if Aldo will fight a fight that causes Moicano to fade though, Stephens and Ortega both have great cardio and the latter fight was the kind of pace that would of more than likely slowed Aldo down too.

Getting punched repeatedly to the body with that high guard might do the trick. Ortega seemed to sap Moicano from end of 2nd round into 3rd round when he started throwing body shots. We know Aldo can work the body and Moicano's body is wide open as he backs up. Aldo would be wise to go high-low and/or end combos with a body kick.

 

[Oblivian]

I pulled the trigger on Maia. Good likes the clinch a lot and I think this could spell trouble for him.

 

[GoldenWolf87]

I pulled the trigger on Maia. Good likes the clinch a lot and I think this could spell trouble for him.

Unless Good can do a KO on Maia in 1st rd. But i will be having a few shares of Maia to. Maybe 2rd Submission?

 

[t6p]

There’s not many who can employ the gameplan needed to beat Maia. You have to have elite tdd, distance control and discipline to beat him

You need elite takedown defense, but I'm not so sure about the other two. Covington essentially stuffed his takedown attempts and brawled with him.

 

[t6p]

If anything, I'm actually a little concerned with Moicanos third round gas tank.

He noticeably slowed down against Ortega and Stephens.

Ideally, that would be the round hed put a stamp on a decision victory.

Maybe Aldo +3.5?

Good point, I also trust Aldo to fight till the end as always even when he's tired. Showed no quit against Max while as you say we've seen Moicano inclined to let the fight go a bit at the end as he slows down. Not sure if Aldo will fight a fight that causes Moicano to fade though, Stephens and Ortega both have great cardio and the latter fight was the kind of pace that would of more than likely slowed Aldo down too.

I'm not sure what you guys are seeing as far as Moicano slowing down goes. He looked fine in the third against Stephens IMO. He maybe slowed a bit against Ortega, but as Jordan mentioned Ortega was in zombie mode in that fight, walking through everything Moicano was landing and pressuring constantly. There's no way that Aldo is going to replicate that. Outside of those fights, he absolutely put it on Kattar in the third and looked fresh against Tukhugov.

If this fight sees a third round and there's any kind of pace at all, I'll be shocked if Moicano isn't the fresher fighter.

 

[Naught2Sixty]

If Moic looked at all slow in the third against Tcity, the broken nose he was dealing with since the first round had to be a big contributor.

 

[theTKDguy]

Moicano wins by volume and sig. Strikes landed. Possibly by stoppage due to strikes over the weathered, less durable, less motivated Aldo.

I wouldn't say less durable. In fact, I think aldo is more durable than moicano. Maybe less motivated. Aldo's power and explosiveness is the difference maker here imo.

 

[Naught2Sixty]

I wouldn't say less durable. In fact, I think aldo is more durable than moicano. Maybe less motivated. Aldo's power and explosiveness is the difference maker here imo.

I think hes remarking that Aldo isnt as durable as he once was not that hes more durable than Moic.

 

[thewiggo]

I don't know if you watched Rozenstruik's most recent fight in Rizin FF 10 that I referenced, or checked the records of the utter tomato cans on his win record, but if you did I don't know how you could conclude all of that. I strongly disagree with all of this for the reasons I stated previously. Other than catching Albini cold with a blistering combo in the first minute or two and being the first ever opponent to knock him out I give Rozenstruik little chance to win this. I hope you make a big Rozenstruik bet somewhere I can bet the other side though!

I’ll take back the “biggest bet of the year” talk. I like Jairzinho in this matchup even with watching the Kovalev footage. I’ll stick a medium bet on him as I still think he gets it done.
I’m waiting on the Teymur KO/TKO prop to pop up - that’ll be my most confident bet of the card.

 

[Soccer Steve]

Good point, I also trust Aldo to fight till the end as always even when he's tired. Showed no quit against Max while as you say we've seen Moicano inclined to let the fight go a bit at the end as he slows down. Not sure if Aldo will fight a fight that causes Moicano to fade though, Stephens and Ortega both have great cardio and the latter fight was the kind of pace that would of more than likely slowed Aldo down too.

I swear he tapped to strikes against Max (I think the second fight if memory serves) but the ref missed it. And anyways Max beat him maybe a minute later. Tough dude, no doubt, but he also turns into an idiot as soon as he gets hurt now, swinging wildly and tiring himself even worse.

 

[Jordan3399]

I'm not sure what you guys are seeing as far as Moicano slowing down goes. He looked fine in the third against Stephens IMO. He maybe slowed a bit against Ortega, but as Jordan mentioned Ortega was in zombie mode in that fight, walking through everything Moicano was landing and pressuring constantly. There's no way that Aldo is going to replicate that. Outside of those fights, he absolutely put it on Kattar in the third and looked fresh against Tukhugov.

If this fight sees a third round and there's any kind of pace at all, I'll be shocked if Moicano isn't the fresher fighter.

I'm thinking mainly that Moicano is not like Max in how he can't comfortably build a pace as the fight goes on and if anything has shown potential to do the opposite and Aldo does have ways to exploit that. I don't think Aldo will just do that pressuring like Ortega but I think Aldo will be smart in this fight attacking the body and legs a lot given the height of Moicano leaving his body open and Aldo's standard left hook-leg kick being suited for that as well as it being an easier target if Moicano employs a lot of movement not to mention that movement is a very energy intensive style of fighting. Against Stephens, Aldo showed he could still do this effectively in a way we hadn't seen full implemented since he fought Lamas and given the height of Moicano and lack of leg kick counter options I'd be surprised if Aldo didn't go that route.

On a similar note I don't really rate the defence of Moicano outside his movement. His body is open and even against Cub he ate a lot of right hands early and if he wasn't on his bike Cub comfortably just stepped into the pocket and outboxed him.

 

[Jordan3399]

I swear he tapped to strikes against Max (I think the second fight if memory serves) but the ref missed it. And anyways Max beat him maybe a minute later. Tough dude, no doubt, but he also turns into an idiot as soon as he gets hurt now, swinging wildly and tiring himself even worse.

I'm inclined to disagree a bit tbh, against Stephens he was far more intelligent than against Holloway. When Stephens started trying to brawl he was smart cutting an angle and pivoting out of a wild exchange and tried to slow the pace back down then attempted twice to circle out again when he was against the fence, evaded or blocked all but one real good shot of Stephens before finally just marching him down.

Either way I don't think Moicano will try that tactic at all, he's not shown an ability or tendency to do that remotely comfortably with lesser boxers to Aldo in Cub and Stephens.

 

[t6p]

I'm thinking mainly that Moicano is not like Max in how he can't comfortably build a pace as the fight goes on and if anything has shown potential to do the opposite and Aldo does have ways to exploit that. I don't think Aldo will just do that pressuring like Ortega but I think Aldo will be smart in this fight attacking the body and legs a lot given the height of Moicano leaving his body open and Aldo's standard left hook-leg kick being suited for that as well as it being an easier target if Moicano employs a lot of movement not to mention that movement is a very energy intensive style of fighting. Against Stephens, Aldo showed he could still do this effectively in a way we hadn't seen full implemented since he fought Lamas and given the height of Moicano and lack of leg kick counter options I'd be surprised if Aldo didn't go that route.

On a similar note I don't really rate the defence of Moicano outside his movement. His body is open and even against Cub he ate a lot of right hands early and if he wasn't on his bike Cub comfortably just stepped into the pocket and outboxed him.

I don't really disagree with any of that. My only point was that based on the evidence we have, I don't see a reason to question Moicano's cardio. I can't say the same about Aldo.

 

[edole]

Idk, can someone rewatch the 3rd round of Moicano and Stephens to corroborate what I think I saw?

It seemed to me like Moicano slowed pretty significantly in the 3rd round and was content with circling and avoiding rather than countering as he had done in rd 1 and 2.

I could be wrong. I have ADD.

 

[Soccer Steve]

Either way I don't think Moicano will try that tactic at all, he's not shown an ability or tendency to do that remotely comfortably with lesser boxers to Aldo in Cub and Stephens.

Agreed, Moicano will likely look very similar to how he did against Stephens. Avoid, avoid, pot shot, avoid.

 

[ill800]

Anybody else like Assuncao at almost +200?

Surprised nobody is really mentioning this considering the fact that he beat Moraes
18 months ago

 

[ill800]

Idk, can someone rewatch the 3rd round of Moicano and Stephens to corroborate what I think I saw?

It seemed to me like Moicano slowed pretty significantly in the 3rd round and was content with circling and avoiding rather than countering as he had done in rd 1 and 2.

I could be wrong. I have ADD.

Think he knew he was up and coasted

 

[Soccer Steve]

Idk, can someone rewatch the 3rd round of Moicano and Stephens to corroborate what I think I saw?

It seemed to me like Moicano slowed pretty significantly in the 3rd round and was content with circling and avoiding rather than countering as he had done in rd 1 and 2.

I could be wrong. I have ADD.

Midway, or thereabouts, through the second we hear Anik or Cruz (I think) say something like 'Moicano is tiring, he's not moving as much.' Then, of course, curse of the commentator, on cue Moicano starts moving a lot more. In the third, he was tired but not so much where I'm worried about it as a bettor (after both Round 1's against Max, we can definitely say Aldo is starting to gas and would worry if we had money on him). But he started to kick the shit out of Stephens legs. He certainly had an energy level and I liked the adjustment. Cardio is not an issue with Moicano.