UFN 144 on ESPN+ 2 Assuncao vs Moraes II

[turbozed]

I think Souza can definitely hurt Frota by cracking her clean on the chin early. We've seen Frota show poor defense, poor head movement and in general defense to punches and kicks more than once. Lots of forward pressure from her, I think she gets clipped because of that and then taken down and subbed. I just think Souza is a much more skilled operator, I guess.

What specifically makes you think that? Frota has shown a very solid chin against flyweight girls. Her defense is bad because she's seemingly unfazed by punches, even those that seem to land clean (I mean, look at that jawline). Aside from putting out atomweight Hamsaki, Souza isn't really that dangeorus on the feet. Her KO's come from takedowns and ground and pound. Souza actually seems uncomfortable trading and is usually the one to initiate the grappling. Against a much bigger power puncher like Frota, I'm not sure if she stands her ground and loads up a counter. I think it's more likely she'll hang around on the outside and look for a chance to time Frota coming in for a TD. At that point, she'll have to mind her Ps and Qs because Frota is very dangerous off her back and will likely be a bit stronger.

 

[Naught2Sixty]

Strange world that we live in where a girl that can make 105 is gonna rock a former 135er but Kelvin Gastelum isn't gonna rock Rob Whittaker.

 

[turbozed]

Hi Fellow gambler,

I been out of loop for this card. I see there is 13 fights in best fight odd and Pinnacle but it seems official ufc say it only have 8 fights. If there is actually 13 fights, how do you watch that 5 missing fight??

Hello fellow gambler,

The 5 missing fights are probably the early preliminary fights. You can watch those on ESPN+. The Main Card will also be on ESPN+. I believe the middle prelims will be on some ESPN channel.

 

[LiquidNuke]

What specifically makes you think that? Frota has shown a very solid chin against flyweight girls. Her defense is bad because she's seemingly unfazed by punches, even those that seem to land clean (I mean, look at that jawline). Aside from putting out atomweight Hamsaki, Souza isn't really that dangeorus on the feet. Her KO's come from takedowns and ground and pound. Souza actually seems uncomfortable trading and is usually the one to initiate the grappling. Against a much bigger power puncher like Frota, I'm not sure if she stands her ground and loads up a counter. I think it's more likely she'll hang around on the outside and look for a chance to time Frota coming in for a TD. At that point, she'll have to mind her Ps and Qs because Frota is very dangerous off her back and will likely be a bit stronger.

Do you think there's little to no value on a play on Souza ITD?

 

[Stunna77]

Do you think there's little to no value on a play on Souza ITD?

Would rather play Souza rd3 with lesser risk, Frota is a decent grappler herself, so I personally don't see a finish unless she gases.

 

[turbozed]

Do you think there's little to no value on a play on Souza ITD?

This is a tough one. Because of Frotas cardio issues, it would make sense that she gets finished late. So maybe a rd2/Rd3 play will be better value. But Souza is not really a huge finishing threat past Rd1 either. And Frota is probably savvy enough to not be finished by a submission late in a fight if it's just Souza on top of her. Frota apparently has the grappling accolades and maybe she can last much longer on the mat than in striking. I can see the two canceling each other out so a decision is definitely possible.

 

[Cockadoodle]

Came home from work a little wired and somehow managed to sit through a bit of tape on Colares-de Freitas.

I could only find one Colares fight on a Jungle Fight card against a 6-4 can that he submitted with a triangle choke in round 3. He looked decent on top, not really much else I took from it.

What stood out to me was how bad de Freitas looked in the two fights of his that I watched. He looks OK on the feet early on, but seems to fade very quickly, especially towards the end of the second round and into the third. He gets taken down fairly easily by the bums he's fighting, and once he's on his back he does nothing other than make half-assed attempts at leg and ankle locks. He's lost 4 times on the regional circuit, which is never a good thing.

Given the facts that Colares a) trains at an actual gym with Team Nogueira, b) seems to be competent on top while de Freitas sucks off of his back and is taken down seemingly at will, and c) is a slight underdog, I think a small play on Colares +105 is justifiable.

I don't think I'm actually going to make that play, but I figured I'd share what little information I was able to find with the rest of you degenerates.

I had a similar read to you and must have watched the same fights, Colares was much more aggressive and has all paths to victory in play. I put a unit on his ML to keep the fight interesting

 

[EndlessCritic]

frota misses weight by 7 pounds.

confidence increase.

 

[null]

UFC Fortaleza official weigh-in highlights from early this morning if you don't want to watch the 90+ minute version. Sarah Frota missed by 7 whopping pounds, bout still to go on. Magomed Bibulatov missed as well:

 

[Naught2Sixty]

 

[Rasdun]

Good move. You'd have been better donating that money to a dog shelter. Oliveira is my pick in the lockz thread.

Wow, never hear Oblivian talk like this - that confident?

 

[GoldenWolf87]

Wow, never hear Oblivian talk like this - that confident?

In many of the fight fight cards and especially those in Brazil Oliveira still hasn't lost in Brazil.
Not all the favorites are going to win.

 

[Oblivian]

Wow, never hear Oblivian talk like this - that confident?

It was a joke. Wik used to always talk about locks.

 

[BaruchSpinoza]

Justin spreading the word! Like he said, the UFC is kind of wishy washy, "if you win you're on top of the world, if you lose you're in the bottom if the bucket". How could you be on TOP of the world if the world is round? Makes no sense.

 

[Naught2Sixty]

Justin spreading the word! Like he said, the UFC is kind of wishy washy, "if you win you're on top of the world, if you lose you're in the bottom if the bucket". How could you be on TOP of the world if the world is round? Makes no sense.

 

[ill800]

So I’m watching some tape on Lyman good

Tough guy, strong, muscular. Seems like he puts all his power into everything he does. Cardio seems good.

Haven’t seen much of his wrestling. Doubt it’s anywhere near woodley Colby and usmans.

Ufc has done no favors for Maia, using him as a bit of a stepping stone for their top guys/prospects

Good seems like he is strong willed and won’t break easily. Have a hard time seeing him being able to keep Maia off him for more than two rds.

As muscular as good is I could see him gassing from defending Maia’s chain wrestling

Does good have the patience, intelligence and ability to execute a gameplan to beat Maia? Is he going to be able to keep away from Maia and outbox him for two rds?

Just don’t think Lyman is good enough to beat Maia. He hasn’t faced anyone even comparable to the high level grappling Maia brings

Think Maia sub is more likely than dec

 

[zeckdo]

So I’m watching some tape on Lyman good

Tough guy, strong, muscular. Seems like he puts all his power into everything he does. Cardio seems good.

Haven’t seen much of his wrestling. Doubt it’s anywhere near woodley Colby and usmans.

Ufc has done no favors for Maia, using him as a bit of a stepping stone for their top guys/prospects

Good seems like he is strong willed and won’t break easily. Have a hard time seeing him being able to keep Maia off him for more than two rds.

As muscular as good is I could see him gassing from defending Maia’s chain wrestling

Does good have the patience, intelligence and ability to execute a gameplan to beat Maia? Is he going to be able to keep away from Maia and outbox him for two rds?

Just don’t think Lyman is good enough to beat Maia. He hasn’t faced anyone even comparable to the high level grappling Maia brings

Think Maia sub is more likely than dec

I think Maia should be the fav, I just can't put a dime on him at 41 years old, 0-3 in last 3, taking a lot of damage, and going 0-49 on takedowns. I expect Good's TD defense to be on point, might even end up on his as a dog, he's going to be the much more physical fighter in there.

 

[ill800]

I think Maia should be the fav, I just can't put a dime on him at 41 years old, 0-3 in last 3, taking a lot of damage, and going 0-49 on takedowns. I expect Good's TD defense to be on point, might even end up on his as a dog, he's going to be the much more physical fighter in there.

Good likes to attack in the clinch and that could be his undoing. He may have a bit of a false confidence and end up getting taken down because of it.

Maia has only lost to elite wrestlers. I don’t think Lyman is at the level he needs to be at to beat Maia

 

[null]

I think Maia should be the fav, I just can't put a dime on him at 41 years old, 0-3 in last 3, taking a lot of damage, and going 0-49 on takedowns. I expect Good's TD defense to be on point, might even end up on his as a dog, he's going to be the much more physical fighter in there.

Maia was as big or slightly bigger than Good though if not as muscular. I have to think Good is enough of a step down after Colby, Usman and Woodley that he can get the takedown and sub this time.

 

[null]

For what it's worth, Rozenstruik weighed in at 241 pounds and Albini cut weight to 265½ so more than a 25 pound weight advantage at the early weigh-in, probably more by tomorrow.