UFN 144 on ESPN+ 2 Assuncao vs Moraes II

[edole]

For what it's worth, Rozenstruik weighed in at 241 pounds and Albini cut weight to 265½ so more than a 25 pound weight advantage at the early weigh-in, probably more by tomorrow.

I HATE that I am leaning towards a play on Albini. Hate it...

 

[BaruchSpinoza]

I HATE that I am leaning towards a play on Albini. Hate it...

Dooooooo it! Join the Albini degenerates!

 

[null]

Ceremonial weigh-in:

 

[Stunna77]

I think Maia should be the fav, I just can't put a dime on him at 41 years old, 0-3 in last 3, taking a lot of damage, and going 0-49 on takedowns. I expect Good's TD defense to be on point, might even end up on his as a dog, he's going to be the much more physical fighter in there.

You really have to take the competetion into context. Maia takes everyone down that isn't an absolute elite wrestler, or Anderson Silva. Jorge Masvidal, his last fight before muderers row, is a pretty good wrestler and drilled straight wrestling with Colby for his entire camp yet he could do fookin nothing to keep Maia off of him. Maia, although not ripped like Good, has shown amazing strength at 170, I would be very wary of thinking Good will be the much more physical fighter just based off their physiques.

 

[BaruchSpinoza]

@piglord

 

[ClipYourDirtyWings]

agree about the power but ledet does have accuracy with his boxing, certainly moreso than walker who loads up with everything. think ledet is extremely live.

Yea, I’m passing on this one myself, but based on the tape I did watch on these two, I agree about Ledet’s accuracy, especially with his jab.

 

[piglord]

@piglord
View attachment 516171

i would legit wear that in public - what is wrong with me?

 

[Card]

 

[Soccer Steve]

It looks like some backwater Brazilian jail is putting together somewhat similar sized convicts to fight one another. Suppose they figured Souza-Frota was close enough.

 

[ClipYourDirtyWings]

Frota is fucking massive. No weight contingency for tomorrow, either. Frota at +200something was the steal of the card.

 

[PolarBearPaulVarelans]

For what it's worth, Rozenstruik weighed in at 241 pounds and Albini cut weight to 265½ so more than a 25 pound weight advantage at the early weigh-in, probably more by tomorrow.

Is this supposed to reflect positively on Albini? Because it's making me feel better about my modest bet on Rozen. Albini weighed in at 265.5 against Arlovski and 266 against Oleynik, so his continued inability to get into proper shape for his height and body type makes me think the ATT training might not have had much benefit.

Anywho, there is a more exciting fight to analyze.

Thiago Alves versus Max Griffin!

Alves made a great career back in the day by being a huge welterweight (those innocent days when a 195-200 pound guy cutting to 170 was considered such) and neutralizing wrestlers by defending against their takedowns and then knocking them out. His knockout of Matt Hughes remains his crowning achievement.

Unfortunately for Alves, 170 has evolved way beyond say, heavyweight. Welterweights are much taller, longer, heavier, and have much better stand-up. He is only a little slower and less active than he was in his prime, but coupled with the evolution, that's enough.

Which is where Max Griffin comes in. He is a pretty good striker, but lacks a necessary weapon to be a top welterweight. He can be beaten by a great wrestler (Covington) and he has close, competitive fights he ultimately loses against very good strikers who do have the aforementioned weapon. (Millender, dos Santos) Anything less than that, though, and Griffin looks pretty damn good, as Mike Perry found out.

Griffin's lateral movement and circling makes him a difficult target to hit, he has fairly long arms, a decent jab, and he jumps in and out with a good 1-2, with the right hand having considerable power.

What type of fighter has Alves always struggled with? A much longer striker. Not only does Griffin have a 6" reach advantage, but to make things even worse, he has a decent jab and is considerably faster. The fact that Griffin has decent leg kicks of his own, can defend well against them, AND has a resilient chin only make things worse for Alves.

Alves has had some success against slower strikers with the same reach as him. Even then, Patrick Cote had a surprising amount of success against Alves, but was betrayed by his non-existent chin and vastly slowed down reactions. And Kunchenko, despite having the perfect striking style for Alves to do well against, beat the absolute crap out of him in the 3rd round, stating in the postfight interview he is used to 5 round fights and thus didn't really get going until then.

None of this will be true against Griffin, who will beat Alves to the punch and repeatedly land against his porous defense.

I'm not too worried about the wrestling, either. Griffin and Alves are probably about equal in terms of their wrestling at this point in their careers, and considering that Alves was only able to take Millender down once, and barely, I doubt he has any success against Griffin, who has better takedown defense.

5 units on Griffin at -192

 

[Soccer Steve]

Is this supposed to reflect positively on Albini? Because it's making me feel better about my modest bet on Rozen. Albini weighed in at 265.5 against Arlovski and 266 against Oleynik, so his continued inability to get into proper shape for his height and body type makes me think the ATT training might not have had much benefit.

Anywho, there is a more exciting fight to analyze.

Thiago Alves versus Max Griffin!

Alves made a great career back in the day by being a huge welterweight (those innocent days when a 195-200 pound guy cutting to 170 was considered such) and neutralizing wrestlers by defending against their takedowns and then knocking them out. His knockout of Matt Hughes remains his crowning achievement.

Unfortunately for Alves, 170 has evolved way beyond say, heavyweight. Welterweights are much taller, longer, heavier, and have much better stand-up. He is only a little slower and less active than he was in his prime, but coupled with the evolution, that's enough.

Which is where Max Griffin comes in. He is a pretty good striker, but lacks a necessary weapon to be a top welterweight. He can be beaten by a great wrestler (Covington) and he has close, competitive fights he ultimately loses against very good strikers who do have the aforementioned weapon. (Millender, dos Santos) Anything less than that, though, and Griffin looks pretty damn good, as Mike Perry found out.

Griffin's lateral movement and circling makes him a difficult target to hit, he has fairly long arms, a decent jab, and he jumps in and out with a good 1-2, with the right hand having considerable power.

What type of fighter has Alves always struggled with? A much longer striker. Not only does Griffin have a 6" reach advantage, but to make things even worse, he has a decent jab and is considerably faster. The fact that Griffin has decent leg kicks of his own, can defend well against them, AND has a resilient chin only make things worse for Alves.

Alves has had some success against slower strikers with the same reach as him. Even then, Patrick Cote had a surprising amount of success against Alves, but was betrayed by his non-existent chin and vastly slowed down reactions. And Kunchenko, despite having the perfect striking style for Alves to do well against, beat the absolute crap out of him in the 3rd round, stating in the postfight interview he is used to 5 round fights and thus didn't really get going until then.

None of this will be true against Griffin, who will beat Alves to the punch and repeatedly land against his porous defense.

I'm not too worried about the wrestling, either. Griffin and Alves are probably about equal in terms of their wrestling at this point in their careers, and considering that Alves was only able to take Millender down once, and barely, I doubt he has any success against Griffin, who has better takedown defense.

5 units on Griffin at -192

Hasn’t Griffin been knocked down multiple times? Resilient?

 

[bruthead]

Moicano R3 +1700 with Paddy Power.

 

[ill800]

Frota missing weight AND the spha?

Time to unload the bankroll boys!

 

[Gugabe]

Moicano R3 +1700 with Paddy Power.

Yeah. I'm on Aldo but I like the 'Aldo is now Renan Barao' insurance a lot.

 

[mmaday4day]

Frota is fucking massive. No weight contingency for tomorrow, either. Frota at +200something was the steal of the card.

We will see. After watching tape I'm pretty confident Souza wins but hey... good luck

 

[PolarBearPaulVarelans]

I like to extol the virtues of watching old-school MMA even if the fighters are no longer competing and modern matches look very different.

One thing we learn from these early contests is that while size certainly matters, it's always less so than we think, and the combatants have to be very close in skill level for it to decide the outcome. I don't think Frota and Souza are close in skill level, especially when factoring in cardio.

 

[clemente]

Is undercard worth watching?

 

[Dianabol]

IDK how you don't favor Marlon Moraes to win. He had an off night in his UFC debut and lost a fight that could have gone either way. Marlon coming on strong in the 3rd and being the fresher guy makes me think 5 rounds will favor him.

Assuncao is also 36 years old now, one of the oldest BW's on the roster,. Marlon is 6 years younger, he's more athletic, he's more dynamic, more dangerous. Only way I see Marlon losing is by another close fight that could go either way. But Marlon has more ways to win and he's just the fighter with more upside and advantages. Marlon Moraes is probably the best athlete at 135lbs

Question is do I play him at his current price, I think it might get even better as we get closer to fight time.

 

[usernamee]

I can't put my fucking foot down on Oliveira/Teymur!!!!!

My initial thought was Oliveira SUB and I keep seeing that happening in my head, but in reality Oliveira has a "punchers chance" - albeit his punchers chance is at a higher percentage than the regular fisticuffs punchers chance since all he has to do is get a guy down and then anything can happen.

But Teymur always seems well prepared and you can tell his TDD is ingrained in him along with great agility. I guess the logic speaks for Teymur, more ways to win, Oliveira likes to quit when it doesn't work out for him etc. But then you add in that Oliveira has never lost in Brazil... And I haven't seen Teymur on his back for a meaningful period of time (bc he usually gets right back up)...And Teymur's MMA record isn't the deepest one really.

Maybe this is the one to leave alone for me...