UFN 144 on ESPN+ 2 Assuncao vs Moraes II

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by JimGunn, Jan 15, 2019.

  1. TITS

    TITS Red Belt Platinum Member

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    What are the odds of Johnny Walker getting his head bounced off the canvas?
     
  2. PolarBearPaulVarelans

    PolarBearPaulVarelans Green Belt

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    The number of female fighters in any weight class who can properly counter naked leg kicks is between 0 and 3 inclusive.

    Anyways, I watched tape for Borella and Santos, and I'm seriously scratching my head at everyone betting heavily on Borella. I understand the concerns about Santos, but based on their last fights...Santos is a straight-up better fighter.

    Borella is a passive, very mediocre striker who couldn't even stop Iren Racsz and has a mediocre waist-lock takedown that can work against people with horrendous takedown defense with piddly, barely existent GnP. This looks like a fight where the most likely scenario is that she gets outpointed.

    Bringing up Santos' fights from 2015 feels like pure cherry-picking. She was 21/22 at the time and has massively improved since. What's Borella's excuse for losing 3 fights in a row by knockout in 2015 when she was already 29?

    I'm not betting on Santos, either, but -175 for her seems fair.

    Instead I bet 4 units on the fight going to decision at -185.
     
  3. Soccer Steve

    Soccer Steve Green Belt

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    You sure scratch your head alot. Simply put: it's a matter of odds. The long-term strategy, certainly when it comes to WMMA, is to bet the dog.
     
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  4. Dooze

    Dooze Purple Belt

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    The more I think of it, the more I like Aldo here.

    Moicano is no doubt a fantastic fighter, but I'm not sure what he does better than Aldo. He's not going to be subbing Aldo, it's highly doubtful he could even take Aldo down. He's a decent striker, but he's not got power or an insane output where his pace is going to break Aldo.

    If he can't get Aldo down, doesn't have the ability to put Aldo out with 1 big shot or push enough of a pace to break Aldo ala Holloway, he's pretty much just left with the option of relying on fighting the perfect fight in a measured striking match with Aldo and relying on doing enough to win a decision.

    The main issue with that is that nobody has ever been able to do that against Aldo. It's the style of fight that Aldo built his UFC career on.

    People are saying about it being a changing of the guard and that, but I don't know if I buy it. It's a huge step up in quality and I don't think Moicano has displayed the ability to emulate those fights where Aldo has lost, or displayed in his previous fights the ability to beat Aldo at his own style of fight.

    I may be wrong and if I am I'll be the first to admit it, but I think it's a lot similar to the Barboza/Hooker fight recently where Barboza looked bad due to the style of his opponent and had a couple of brutal fights and got counted out too early versus someone who has looked great against lower level fighters but not yet demonstrated the ability to do that at the highest level.

    He may very well be at that level and I could be wrong, but I was on Barboza in that spot for similar reasons as a slight underdog and I think I'm going to be doing the same here.
     
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  5. PolarBearPaulVarelans

    PolarBearPaulVarelans Green Belt

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    You know, I've been largely ignoring you, but it's downright impressive how smug and arrogant you are despite losing something like 26 units on the last event. Barry-esque even, minus any actual humor or likability.
     
  6. clemente

    clemente Orange Belt

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    Changing my mind to Moicano, the only way I see for Aldo win are leg kicks, which Moicano doesn't really defend, but besides that everything seems to be in Moicanos favor.
     
  7. THEfightsAREfixed

    THEfightsAREfixed Master Servant Yellow Card

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  8. Jordan3399

    Jordan3399 Green Belt

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    I'd like to politely say that frankly your striking knowledge is an absolute joke tbh, calling Marion Reneau a better striker than Holm (who beat her in a one sided striking match smh) and Joanna Contender and the same level as Shevchenko. If you think Santos is that good of a striker then frankly I'm taking that as confidence boost for my bet on Borella.

    Think you need to watch a lot more fight and technique footage then get yourself down to a kickboxing/muay thai/mma gym for a bit.
     
  9. onC

    onC Blue Belt

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    That's ridicilous. Moicano starts slow, and has been hurt before. There are bunch of different ways Aldo could beat him. I for one wouldnt be surprised if Jose crumbles him with a bodyshot.
     
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  10. lawmills2006

    lawmills2006 Purple Belt

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    Liking Aldo at dog odds here, considering its 3 rounds and I dont think Moicanos striking is on same level as Aldo/Holloway.
     
  11. clemente

    clemente Orange Belt

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    He doesn't really start "slow", he just finds his angles and outstrikes his opponents, if Aldo tries to make it pacey, I think Moicano still gonna outnumber him.
     
  12. Soccer Steve

    Soccer Steve Green Belt

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    For someone who calls out any cherry-pickers, large or small, vehemently and aggressively you cherry pick my 26u loss and ignore my posted winnings on the Holloway-Ortega card. Ebb and flow, I'm not going to win them all. Our mighty Jim took one on the chin a few cards back and rode that wave. Shit happens.

    As far as calling me smug and arrogant. Meh. Takes one to know one maybe.

    I guess I know why we butt heads so much on here. I call you out more often than I do with others I disagree with and you are an asshole. I don't mean offence there necessarily, it's just a fact and I doubt you'd really disagree. Maybe I'm an asshole too. But to utterly smash people down for disagreeing with you goes against what this forum is for. Its to present a side, post it, and see what others think. It's not easy to come up with a concise breakdown on a fighter and present it to everyone. Your insights are often quite readable and accurate and appreciated. But when they aren't, and someone says so, you don't need to turn Hulk on them.

    Or do. This is a free forum and we live in free countries.

    But for the greater good of not clogging up this place with a lame back and forth, I'm willing to bury the hatchet fwiw. Yes?
     
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  13. minowasmullet

    minowasmullet Orange Belt

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    I have my eye on him to fade massively, just not pulling the trigger today
     
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  14. PuertoRican

    PuertoRican Silver Belt

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  15. Tony J

    Tony J Blue Belt

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    Finished up all the study I am going to do.

    Wanted to dig deep into Moicano, thinking I missed something, but I did not. I do not know why he's the favorite, other than Aldo being written off. Moicano has great legkicks and he's long, and can mix in a takedown if need be, but Aldo's pieces mesh perfectly. Aldo is the guy I would choose to defend/time those legkicks, and he's far better where Moicano is weakest - the pocket. Moicano throws wildly and retreats when the likes of Stephens, Kattar, and Cub pressed him. When he got tired of that, Moicano bailed out to a takedown or started kicking again. That ain't happening here. At distance, Aldo can neutralize, unlike Cub, who likes to stay at distance to punch and be victim to kicks, and unlike Strpehens, who has no range game. In the pocket, it's easily Aldo.

    Also, purely from a speculative standpoint is the respect Renato shows his opponents after a fight - like it is a big deal and honor to beat these guys. Imagine asking him to beat Brazilian legend Aldo.. in Brazil. I wonder if this is asking him too much.
     
    Last edited: Feb 2, 2019
  16. Tony J

    Tony J Blue Belt

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    Santos over Mara via being better at managing the distance, more volume, better striking, and Borella not willing to use her ground game often, which is not lights out good anyway. Also a better athlete and younger.
     
  17. Cockadoodle

    Cockadoodle Yellow Belt

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    Loving the fight
     
  18. PolarBearPaulVarelans

    PolarBearPaulVarelans Green Belt

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    You know, I was answering your post in the other topic about Reneau seriously, logically, and politely. If your only response is to be a stupid, rude asshole writing insults, I can calmly ignore your nonsense from here on out and laugh when you inevitably lose your shirt, like with Steve.

    Incidentally, I was under the impression that "striking knowledge" consisted of technical knowledge and being able to do it oneself, not which female fighter I think is superior in that regard. And we've been over this before, but I was an amateur boxer as well as doing Muy Thai and karate for a good spell.

    Pretty sure your own training is non-existent and you're just some drunk British uni idiot wasting his time and money.
     
  19. ClipYourDirtyWings

    ClipYourDirtyWings The Best is Blessed

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    Keeps crashing for me on my Mac tonight, yea. I didn’t have any issues last card but it’s crashed 3 times already on me tonight.
     
  20. EndlessCritic

    EndlessCritic Gold Belt

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    chasing on the baby... fuck my life.
     

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