UFC on ESPN 1 Ngannou vs Velasquez

[Xuh]

IMO Penne was robbed in the Taylor fight

 

[Austisthunder]

I honestly think the Lopez bet is low percentage, tried to find a way to bet him but watching their fights the takedown is inevitable followed by the sub. Manny is no mug on the feet but on the ground he is next level. Looking at their common opponent Albert Morales, Lopez beat Morales on the feet, but i think Morales provided a tougher challenge for Manny than Lopez with decent sub defence and the ability to get out of tight spots. I dont see Lopez having the power to keep Manny off him for 3 rounds.

After watching tape im on Manny but this fight is interesting in the sense that they both semi stylistically cancel each other out a lil bit;
I think Manny is slow / plodding with his low hands and is vulnerable to getting clocked here
On the other hand Lopez with his dynamic rather dumb style can get him a flash quick KO here but also makes him even more vulnerable to the inevitable submission

I went fairly heavy on the obvious Manny sub but will play a R1 Lopez KO as hedge i think

 

[Austisthunder]

If Casey didn’t have that brick fight iq I would unload on her at these odds

It takes a real masochist to bet on Casey and know that your gonna get a split decision

 

[Ruthfella]

Prime Cain would be a nightmare for Ngannou not old, post usada grandpa who fought 2 times in the last 5 years lol

 

[Jordan3399]

Can't believe I'm going to pay juice on a WMMA two events is a row but Casey just has zero TDD.

Calvillo should be able to get her down at will but once there Casey is a Brown Belt in BJJ so I don't think it'll be easy for her to take the back like she normally does but he top control and sub defence has been solid too even going back to her amateur fight with Aspen Ladd who she beat. I really don't think Calvillo's striking is particularly good (I know some really rate her boxing) yet she always keeps it competitive even against strikers like Calderwood and Botelho so I don't see Casey just being able to march her down like she did with undersized Michelle Waterson especially as Calvillo herself is a pretty big strawweight.

If Casey had any TDD I'd probably take a small stab at her being a wide dog but her TDD is 24% with all the vaguely skilled fighters she has faced such as Waterson, Gadelha, Aguilar, 2015 edition Calderwood etc. all being able to take her down at will. I'm not thrilled with the price but Casey just sucks and given the striking will be at worst competitive and Calvillo can get takedowns whenever she wants I took 4u at -250. All she has to do is shoot a takedown in two of the three rounds and she's probably won the fight with whatever top control, passes, gnp etc. she gets in what will likely be otherwise close but indecisive rounds and she's always one back take away from a finish. If Calvillo manages to lose this fight she'll have to have a fight IQ on par with Rumble trying to double leg DC.

 

[ClipYourDirtyWings]

I like Jodie Esquibel just because Jessica is old and lost to Danielle Taylor. any thoughts about this fight?

I say a fighter “sucks” a lot when I’m breaking down fights and just trying to make a point, but Jodie legitimately sucks. She is one of the worst active fighters on the roster, just terrible.

She isn’t good at anything. She was just soundly beaten by a 36 y/o, half-crippled, shell-of-her-former-self JAG, had her face boxed off by Alexa Grasso, got subbed by fucking Alex Chambers. Her only somewhat notable career win is a gifted split over DeAnna Bennet in 2017.

I’m frankly shocked there’s money coming in on Jodie, I was more than happy to fade her on Penne’s -175 line, but the cheaper I can get that the better, obviously.

 

[usernamee]

Can't believe I'm going to pay juice on a WMMA two events is a row but Casey just has zero TDD.

Calvillo should be able to get her down at will but once there Casey is a Brown Belt in BJJ so I don't think it'll be easy for her to take the back like she normally does but he top control and sub defence has been solid too even going back to her amateur fight with Aspen Ladd who she beat. I really don't think Calvillo's striking is particularly good (I know some really rate her boxing) yet she always keeps it competitive even against strikers like Calderwood and Botelho so I don't see Casey just being able to march her down like she did with undersized Michelle Waterson especially as Calvillo herself is a pretty big strawweight.

If Casey had any TDD I'd probably take a small stab at her being a wide dog but her TDD is 24% with all the vaguely skilled fighters she has faced such as Waterson, Gadelha, Aguilar, 2015 edition Calderwood etc. all being able to take her down at will. I'm not thrilled with the price but Casey just sucks and given the striking will be at worst competitive and Calvillo can get takedowns whenever she wants I took 4u at -250. All she has to do is shoot a takedown in two of the three rounds and she's probably won the fight with whatever top control, passes, gnp etc. she gets in what will likely be otherwise close but indecisive rounds and she's always one back take away from a finish. If Calvillo manages to lose this fight she'll have to have a fight IQ on par with Rumble trying to double leg DC.

I don't feel like Calvillo is going for the TDs as much as she should/could. But I do think she will get at least one a round and despite lacking some technique on the feet she is fairly quick, definitely quicker feet than Casey so I'll be picking Calvillo as well.

 

[Jordan3399]

I don't feel like Calvillo is going for the TDs as much as she should/could. But I do think she will get at least one a round and despite lacking some technique on the feet she is fairly quick, definitely quicker feet than Casey so I'll be picking Calvillo as well.

I agree Calvillo has shown a tendency at times to let things get a bit too close normally getting to carried away striking but as you said even on the feet she wins rounds when she just shouldn't. I thought she pretty clearly lost the second round vs Calderwood striking but 2 judges and half the media still scored it for her.

 

[ClipYourDirtyWings]

Can't believe I'm going to pay juice on a WMMA two events is a row but Casey just has zero TDD.

Calvillo should be able to get her down at will but once there Casey is a Brown Belt in BJJ so I don't think it'll be easy for her to take the back like she normally does but he top control and sub defence has been solid too even going back to her amateur fight with Aspen Ladd who she beat. I really don't think Calvillo's striking is particularly good (I know some really rate her boxing) yet she always keeps it competitive even against strikers like Calderwood and Botelho so I don't see Casey just being able to march her down like she did with undersized Michelle Waterson especially as Calvillo herself is a pretty big strawweight.

If Casey had any TDD I'd probably take a small stab at her being a wide dog but her TDD is 24% with all the vaguely skilled fighters she has faced such as Waterson, Gadelha, Aguilar, 2015 edition Calderwood etc. all being able to take her down at will. I'm not thrilled with the price but Casey just sucks and given the striking will be at worst competitive and Calvillo can get takedowns whenever she wants I took 4u at -250. All she has to do is shoot a takedown in two of the three rounds and she's probably won the fight with whatever top control, passes, gnp etc. she gets in what will likely be otherwise close but indecisive rounds and she's always one back take away from a finish. If Calvillo manages to lose this fight she'll have to have a fight IQ on par with Rumble trying to double leg DC.

I really like Calvillo, but I can’t bring myself to hit that ML. Casey is capable of winning a shitty split if she can stay away from Calvillo for 3 rounds and not get taken down. If it goes to decision, I definitely favor Casey because that will mean she will have stayed away from Calvillo’s grappling and stopped her TDs — I don’t see her surviving any type of extended grappling exchanges with Calvillo if the grappling she showed against Michelle Waterson is an accurate measuring stick.

I also don’t want to tempt the WMMA Heavy Favorite Gods after I just cashed on Montana. I’m likely going to hit Calvillo sub and Casey decision, as a sub is the most likely path for Calvillo and decision is Casey’s only path.

 

[Jordan3399]

I really like Calvillo, but I can’t bring myself to hit that ML. Casey is capable of winning a shitty split if she can stay away from Calvillo for 3 rounds and not get taken down. If it goes to decision, I definitely favor Casey because that will mean she will have stayed away from Calvillo’s grappling and stopped her TDs — I don’t see her surviving any type of extended grappling exchanges with Calvillo if the grappling she showed against Michelle Waterson is an accurate measuring stick.

I also don’t want to tempt the WMMA Heavy Favorite Gods after I just cashed on Montana. I’m likely going to hit Calvillo sub and Casey decision, as a sub is the most likely path for Calvillo and decision is Casey’s only path.

I really feel like I'm pushing it after hitting so many faves last night but can't resist. I do think there is a good chance of Calvillo going to a decision though given how late her sub of Pearl was or how she didn't finish Calderwood and on paper at least Casey has some of, if not the best, BJJ that Cynthia has faced so I'd be surprised if she was foolish enough to just give up her back or neck easily like so many of Calvillo previous opponents have.

 

[usernamee]

I agree Calvillo has shown a tendency at times to let things get a bit too close normally getting to carried away striking but as you said even on the feet she wins rounds when she just shouldn't. I thought she pretty clearly lost the second round vs Calderwood striking but 2 judges and half the media still scored it for her.

She has that delusional self belief where she always thinks she's winning, lol. It's projected outwards though, so not bad!

 

[Jordan3399]

She has that delusional self belief where she always thinks she's winning, lol. It's projected outwards though, so not bad!

It's so funny to watch, I was heavy on Esparza to beat her as a big underdog and she looked shocked beyond belief when she lost a clear decision like she hadn't just been eating clean right hands for the last 2 rounds.

 

[Broe.]

man i was just watching morales vs benitez, nice robbery

 

[theTKDguy]

Small on francis, I expect him to ko rusty, wanna go wwe cain with a well timed punch in the first rd. Prime cain would've most likely smoked him tho.

Lots of interesting fights to bet, no tape I like rivera rn. They'll cancell each other's wrestling and make this a striking match, in this case I favour the aggresive boxer with strong leg kicks. Sterling throws kicks from a mile away and is afraid to engage.

Jury vs fili is a tough one imo. FGTD is a good bet. I expected much more from jury, but he's shown he's just a solid journeyman, much like fili. He had some pop in his punches at lw but none at fw, similar to mj. They are both well rounded, lanky and conservative. Sounds like a close dec to me. Fili at dog money is very playable imo

 

[ClipYourDirtyWings]

It's so funny to watch, I was heavy on Esparza to beat her as a big underdog and she looked shocked beyond belief when she lost a clear decision like she hadn't just been eating clean right hands for the last 2 rounds.

I was irate with Calvillo after that fight. She beat the brakes off of Carla on the ground until the closing bell of the first round, then just ceased any attempts to try to get the fight back there. Awful display of fight IQ and like you said, hilarious that she actually had thought she'd won.

 

[Macaque]

I generally stay away from WMMA, but I might put some change on Calvillo.

 

[ill800]

I might just play Casey out of principle.

#fadethejerk

 

[BigSteve]

Holtzman,Calvillo,Bermudez and Vincent Luque.
Guys what do you think of this picks ? Need your opinion.

House picks other than Bermudez, might need to do research on that one.

 

[GrantSorenson]

I might just play Casey out of principle.

#fadethejerk

Calvillo is more or less priced to what Montana DLR was vs Kaseem.

I can see the point in taking DLR at that price. I can't see the point in taking Calvillo. When you back 99% of wmma fighters, you have to take it as a given that you're guaranteed to get a low fight IQ by your fighter. You literally have to assume that and ask yourself if she can win the fight using poor fight iq.

 

[Wiktoruspro]

I really like Calvillo, but I can’t bring myself to hit that ML. Casey is capable of winning a shitty split if she can stay away from Calvillo for 3 rounds and not get taken down. If it goes to decision, I definitely favor Casey because that will mean she will have stayed away from Calvillo’s grappling and stopped her TDs — I don’t see her surviving any type of extended grappling exchanges with Calvillo if the grappling she showed against Michelle Waterson is an accurate measuring stick.

I also don’t want to tempt the WMMA Heavy Favorite Gods after I just cashed on Montana. I’m likely going to hit Calvillo sub and Casey decision, as a sub is the most likely path for Calvillo and decision is Casey’s only path.

even Waterson took Down Cortney so I except The same from Calvilo