UFC on ESPN 1 Ngannou vs Velasquez

Thoughts on James Vick KO line odds?

James Vick no doubt after the loss at Fight Night 135 his hungry for a win.
 
theTKDguy said:
Small on francis, I expect him to ko rusty, wanna go wwe cain with a well timed punch in the first rd. Prime cain would've most likely smoked him tho.

Lots of interesting fights to bet, no tape I like rivera rn. They'll cancell each other's wrestling and make this a striking match, in this case I favour the aggresive boxer with strong leg kicks. Sterling throws kicks from a mile away and is afraid to engage.

Jury vs fili is a tough one imo. FGTD is a good bet. I expected much more from jury, but he's shown he's just a solid journeyman, much like fili. He had some pop in his punches at lw but none at fw, similar to mj. They are both well rounded, lanky and conservative. Sounds like a close dec to me. Fili at dog money is very playable imo
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GrantSorenson said:
Barbarena is durable but Luque is on an entirely different level.
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GrantSorenson said:
Barbarena is durable but Luque is on an entirely different level.
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I think this match up might be bad for Barbarena. I will be on Rivera as well i expect for Rivera to come out with a finish. But Barbarena vs Luque could go either way.
 
Great card for betting.
I like Albu and luque. Dogs I like sterling and Vick
 
I did tape on Whitmire-Albu and Whitmire is a solid dog. Albu skillwise is complete trash she's just as athlete with some basic MMA skills and if Curran can perform like that against her then Whitmire should dominate. She showed decent rangey striking last fight against Moyle which is what she needs to keep distance and frustrate Albu and she has good enough takedowns to get Albu down and just sit happily in her half guard and win rounds which she likes to do. 2u on Whitmire +162, at worst the fight should be evens but Albu literally has nothing going for her other than raw strength.
 
With FGTD on Ngannou-Cain the only scenario I see it happening is if Cain gasses again. That's the only reason Stipe-Ngannou went 5 rounds as Stipe gassed hard as well and Herb had zero intention of stopping it unless someone was unconscious on the canvas. I'd just pass the over/under altogether at that price.
 
Jordan3399 said:
With FGTD on Ngannou-Cain the only scenario I see it happening is if Cain gasses again. That's the only reason Stipe-Ngannou went 5 rounds as Stipe gassed hard as well and Herb had zero intention of stopping it unless someone was unconscious on the canvas. I'd just pass the over/under altogether at that price.
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I'm personally a bit concerned by Cain's gastank. It used to be inhuman, but AKA guys have gone from 'insane' gastanks to 'good' after USADA, IMO. Look at Khabib. He's still setting a pace, but not the brutal one he was against guys like Trujillo.
 
Gugabe said:
I'm personally a bit concerned by Cain's gastank. It used to be inhuman, but AKA guys have gone from 'insane' gastanks to 'good' after USADA, IMO. Look at Khabib. He's still setting a pace, but not the brutal one he was against guys like Trujillo.
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I think Khabib kept his pace up fine. He absolutely mauled Barboza for 3 rounds in a ferocious pace.

After that he has only been in 5-round fights. And there is probably not a single human on the planet that can have that kind of grappling+gnp output over 25 minutes so you just have to pace yourself somewhat.
 
Jordan3399 said:
With FGTD on Ngannou-Cain the only scenario I see it happening is if Cain gasses again. That's the only reason Stipe-Ngannou went 5 rounds as Stipe gassed hard as well and Herb had zero intention of stopping it unless someone was unconscious on the canvas. I'd just pass the over/under altogether at that price.
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Could also expect Ngannous cardio to hold up a bit better, he went balls to the walls in round 1 against Stipe, seemed to have a lot of nervous energy and probably a serious adrenaline dump. If he's fighting more cautious like he usually does I don't see him being completely done 3 minutes into the fight this time. That felt more like an exception. I've seen a lot of people judging his overall gastank just based of that fight
 
Ngannou round 1 at +258. I think Cain comes aggressive and make shit happens. Francis has a good chance here, specially when his early TDD is pretty good.

Vick +102. His chin concerns me tho.

Barao +152. The other guy sucks. Barao shuld NOT be at 135 but I think he might pull this one off. He had a couple of rough matchups lately.
 
Myles Jury kind of did a quit job vs Mendes, got knocked down and kind of accepted the beating, he wasn't really hurt and didn't take much damage. Chad is a very explosive athlete and I guess Myles got shook when he tasted the power.

I still think Myles Jury is very skilled, talented fighter. Jury's performance vs Glenn was a impressive and good showcase of his skills, he was super composed and technical, won every minute of that fight. No doubt Jury is a better fighter than Fili, he's way more skilled on the ground, he's better everywhere.

But Jury lacks heart and is a front runner, in his losses vs Cowboy and Mendes he clearly accepted defeat after facing adversity.
 
Jordan3399 said:
I did tape on Whitmire-Albu and Whitmire is a solid dog. Albu skillwise is complete trash she's just as athlete with some basic MMA skills and if Curran can perform like that against her then Whitmire should dominate. She showed decent rangey striking last fight against Moyle which is what she needs to keep distance and frustrate Albu and she has good enough takedowns to get Albu down and just sit happily in her half guard and win rounds which she likes to do. 2u on Whitmire +162, at worst the fight should be evens but Albu literally has nothing going for her other than raw strength.
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I agree, before rewatching albu vs curran I remembered being very impressed by her, but Albu is superwild and has no technique what so ever. Her defense is also terrible, it almost looked like every punch that curran threw landed. What Albu does have is bulldozer strength and grit. She is certainly no quitter! It wouldnt surprise me if she blew whitmire out of the water in the first round, but there is also a high possibility she gasses herself out and that whitmire will take over after round 1. I am taking a little action on Whitmire at 2.55.
 
picks are up, bang bang. pretty much all value plays for me, could get killed.
 
I feel like Nik Lenz is getting disrespected again. Holtzmann is 35 and truly not a prospect. Patrick is just a glass cannon. Patrick got hit in the first and never recovered probably injured an already damaged jaw. Other than knocking Patrick out Holtzman has been a decision machine his whole career. don't think he developed power at 35. I think Lentz grinds out a decision
 
Danis_champ said:
I feel like Nik Lenz is getting disrespected again. Holtzmann is 35 and truly not a prospect. Patrick is just a glass cannon. Patrick got hit in the first and never recovered probably injured an already damaged jaw. Other than knocking Patrick out Holtzman has been a decision machine his whole career. don't think he developed power at 35. I think Lentz grinds out a decision
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I agree. This fight is a tossup at worst IMO.
 
Got to disagree with some people and say I think Holtzman probably beats Lentz convincingly. Holtzman looked great vs Patrick even if he is too old to be a true contender but had excellent takedown defence and much cleaner striking. Lentz on the other hand was rocked in both his last 2 fights including against the ghost of Maynard and before that he got he got a comeback sub vs Will Brooks and was dominated badly by Makhachev. Even on the mat Holtz is a BJJ brown belt so I'm not too concerned with Lentz snatching a sub like he did to beat Brooks.

I was leaning to Holtz Dec but given Lentz has been increasingly rocked recently and Holtz's beatdown and KO of Patrick so I've just taken his ML at -175 for now. I just don't see where Lentz has any fight winning advantage and Holtz should win a striking match while landing occasional takedowns to convince the judges if necessary. He's just the bigger better fighter with less miles on the clock.
 
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