UFC on ESPN 1 Ngannou vs Velasquez

[Cockadoodle]

Why is Barberena so far out +290? He is a durable guy with a bit of everything, would think it would be closer with Luque who is a similar type guy.
Is everyone just high on Luque after the Turner fight? Looking at both their fights vs Leon Edwards the fights were similar with both guys dropping Edwards on the feet. Wrestling and pressure you could say Luque has a slight edge but the gas tank i would give to barbarena. Whats everyones thoughts

 

[GrantSorenson]

Why is Barberena so far out +290? He is a durable guy with a bit of everything, would think it would be closer with Luque who is a similar type guy.
Is everyone just high on Luque after the Turner fight? Looking at both their fights vs Leon Edwards the fights were similar with both guys dropping Edwards on the feet. Wrestling and pressure you could say Luque has a slight edge but the gas tank i would give to barbarena. Whats everyones thoughts

Barbarena is durable but Luque is on an entirely different level.

 

[piglord]

barbarena could be live bet gold - he's guaranteed to take a shelling in round one.

 

[Austisthunder]

Why is Barberena so far out +290? He is a durable guy with a bit of everything, would think it would be closer with Luque who is a similar type guy.
Is everyone just high on Luque after the Turner fight? Looking at both their fights vs Leon Edwards the fights were similar with both guys dropping Edwards on the feet. Wrestling and pressure you could say Luque has a slight edge but the gas tank i would give to barbarena. Whats everyones thoughts

I think consensus is Barb is a tough well rounded SOB but luque is just a tier above him.
Luque should win this but agreed the line seems off, wouldnt be shocked if Bam Bam somehow survives the beating to get a 3rd round sub

 

[Cockadoodle]

Barbarena is durable but Luque is on an entirely different level.

Mmmm will be interesting. I think that for all the advantage Luque has with distance and sharp striking, Barbarena could suck him into a brawl where the 4/1 odds close up to a punchers chance. Luques brutal leg kicks will be less effective if barb choses to take his southpaw stance. Same goes for his ko left hook. Both fighters switch a lot im looking forward to this one

 

[Jordan3399]

Not sold on Barbarena even at that price. If anything Luque probably has the grappling advantage and neither guy has been KO'd before. Barbarena probably needs to draw him into a brawl then try and get a decision. Anyone actually recall Luque being hurt before? Think FGTD might be my only play here if odds are good.

 

[usernamee]

The only thing that lurks me into betting on Barbarena is that he is the underdog king.

Remember when he was a big underdog against SuperSage and took him out. Then Dana & CO clearly wanted to punish poor old Barbarena by throwing him to Warlley Alves who he also was a big underdog against and yet again pulled through.

Obv terrible reasoning but I was just reminded of how hilariously that whole thing turned out.

 

[Jordan3399]

I think I like Evans-Smith as a dog.

She's a big 125er, and her striking is pretty underrated with half decent stance switches and she's uses her length reasonably well. She's open to boxing counters which Rawlings exploited a bit but Lee's boxing isn't great being a Muay Thai fighter and I think Smith might have the advantage boxing in the pocket as even Macedo landed decent shots there on Lee. I do think Lee could chop down Smith's lead leg though if she can set it up right and land it consistently as the way she plants her lead leg leaves her open to it and Rawlings exploited this. 5ft 4 Macedo also stunned Lee early with a high kick but followed it up awfully so Smith should able to exploit this, I wouldn't gamble on it but if she does land one clean and follows it up well a TKO off this wouldn't surprise at all.

Lee probably has a clear BJJ advantage but again I'd give Smith a clear wrestling advantage and I'm not convinced Lee will get her down easily if at all. She was attempting a lot of head and arm throws in her last fight which I highly doubt will work against Smith given Ketlen Viera, arguably the best wrestler at 135, went 1 for 5 on takedowns on Smith. On the other hand Macedo got Lee down off a pretty awful takedown attempt so I can see Smith landing takedowns to decisively win rounds which she did in round 1 vs Rawlings.

The fight most likely goes the distance although I can Lee getting a submission win if Smith takes her down and is careless in Lee's guard but after rewatching her fight with Sarah Moras I'm not too concerned by this as a Moras did actually display a impressive guard game and flexibility in order to get the armbar while Smith's defence to it wasn't particularly bad. I'd pass on FGTD at -230 though.

Overall, I think it'll a be a competitive striking match on the feet with Smith possibly having an edge if she doesn't try exchanging too much in the clinch or if Lee doesn't heavily exploit the leg kicks but even then Smith can mitigate this by switching stances reasonably well. I think the wrestling will be decisive though as Smith should have no problem deciding where the fight goes and using takedowns to decisively win rounds and even in the clinch where Lee normally does well she should be able to smother and outmuscle her there hitting takedowns from it to take away an area Lee is often dominant. I think if Lee does win it's probably a competitive decision or a possible submission but at these odds I think Smith is good bet and I've got 2u at +165.

 

[GoldenWolf87]

I felt dirty about it as Sanders is a flake, but went 2u -165, Barao's decline is one of the fastest and most notable that I can think of. He is done.

I agree Sanders could easily win with a KO finish first round.

 

[Larthus]

Bet against Renan Barao.

Drop the house on Aljo.

 

[OutRun]

I like Jury and Sterling.

 

[Broe.]

Not sold on Barbarena even at that price. If anything Luque probably has the grappling advantage and neither guy has been KO'd before. Barbarena probably needs to draw him into a brawl then try and get a decision. Anyone actually recall Luque being hurt before? Think FGTD might be my only play here if odds are good.

Yes vs edwards he was very hurt

 

[Gugabe]

Cain Sub opens at +2200? I'd cap that at like +700.

 

[Dianabol]

Albu nearly lost to the worst WMMA fighter in UFC history, Kailin Curran. Albu isn't even a full time fighter, she's a instagram model, she's more interested in posting ass pics than getting W's. Albu hasn't fought in 19 months.

Albu is obviously a very strong girl, she was able to overpower a weak girl like Curran before gassing out. I don't think Albu is very skilled at anything, she's only as good as she is because of her physicality.

I don't have many good things to say about Whittmire, her record sucks, she's inexperienced and she hasn't accomplished much. But there is more upside with Whittmire, she is the more active, dedicated fighter, she's doing all the right things.

Whittmire has been at Xtreme Couture for a long time, she's in the practice room with good coaches and lots of female talent, getting work in with girls like Gadelha. Meanwhile Albu is training with bum training partners and coaches.

Whittmire looked improved vs Moyle, good learning experience and I expect her to look even better in this fight. If Albu looks like she did vs Curran I don't see her winning against Whittmire. One girl is taking her MMA career seriously and one girl isn't.

 

[Dianabol]

Prime Cain is a nightmare for Ngannou but why would I believe I'm getting anything other than a damaged, worn out Cain Velasquez in this fight. His body has failed him, fought twice since 2013, knee problems, back problems, I wonder how many surgeries he's had.

Before the Blaydes fight I said Ngannou needs to prove himself again, after coming off two disappointing performances I had lost confidence in him. Well Ngannou did prove himself again, he is a top HW and he is capable of beating everyone.

I don't trust Ngannou but I trust Velasquez even less at this point.

 

[Oblivian]

So far I'm eyeing most of the dogs. The only favs that I don't think I'm going against are Cain, Gracie, Luque, and Sanders.

 

[Vir_Ars]

Texecutioner 10u @ 2.20 (+120)

I don't care what everybody think, live or die with this bet. I am 110% sure he is winning this. I waited so long for this fight to bet. (I'll hedge it with some money on Felder via decision, Vick has a tendency to get the fights close if he doesn't finish them, but this is I believe the worst case scenario)

Dude, that's huge, what's your reading about this fight?

 

[Wiktoruspro]

So far I'm eyeing most of the dogs. The only favs that I don't think I'm going against are Cain, Gracie, Luque, and Sanders.

Sanders ground game sucks, Barao might have a sub chance here.

 

[piglord]

man after going full juice lord last card i'm going full dog lord on this one.

 

[Jordan3399]

Possibly controversial opinion but not seeing the value on Aljo as a dog. His almost sole path to victory is out volume striking Rivera to a decision which I don't really like his chances of. Anyway, here's my take on it if any pro-Aljo guys want to give their opinion.

The main thing imo that has given Rivera problems before is guys with big power such as Almeida and Munhoz who both significantly rocked him and Moraes who finished him of course. I thought that Dodson's power would likely give him problems last fight but that he handled fine and in comparison to all of the above mentioned fighters Sterling hits like a strawweight meaning he'll be relying on an evasive point fighting strategy to win rounds but never actually seriously threatening Rivera at all.

While Sterling is a solid grappler Rivera has never been takendown in the UFC with Munhoz, Faber, Dodson etc. all having their takedown attempts stuffed while on the other hand Rivera is excellent at using takedowns to steal rounds and get a clear decision which he did against both Almeida and Alcantara when the fight was close. Therefore in a potentially close striking match I see Rivera timing double legs once or twice a round in order to decisively win them.

Rivera himself doesn't have huge power but he can hurt opponents especially when he gets on the inside and unloads extended combinations which he does very effectively and in addition to the takedowns this is another way he will likely decisively win rounds with big moments like that. I think he should be able to do a lot of this with ease as he performed well against rangey fighters before such as Alcantara and without any deterrent to Rivera closing the distance I see Sterling struggling to avoid them.

I think it'll be a 'competitive fight' but when it comes to the scorecards Rivera should take it easily having almost all the big moments with his takedowns and heavy boxing combos, as well as likely having most of the forward pressure. I put 2u on Sterling at +175 seeing money was going to come in on him but I'll likely ditch it later in favour Rivera Dec at whatever price they're offering.