UFC on ESPN 1 Ngannou vs Velasquez

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by JimGunn, Jan 30, 2019.

  1. JimGunn

    JimGunn Silver Belt

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  2. Austisthunder

    Austisthunder Yellow Belt

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    4 wmma fights? Lame

    Regardless Sterling and Francis Ngannou are solid dogs imo

    Only thing else catches my eye right off the bat is Myles Jury.... not a fan of touchy Fili at all, especially with any reach advantage hes used to having being negated here
     
  3. burge13

    burge13 Blue Belt

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    I hope that isn't the official bout order
     
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  4. Jordan3399

    Jordan3399 Green Belt

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    Think Rivera should win pretty comfortably pretape tbh. He has a 100% TDD and in a striking match I favour Rivera, if nothing else I don't think Sterling has enough power to hurt him like Almeida and Moraes could.

    Might be crazy but a little on Barao as a big dog I might go for, Sanders just loves to find a way to lose and at the end of the day Renan Barao is still only 32 and has all the skills to destroy a guy like that.
     
    Last edited: Feb 2, 2019
  5. Naught2Sixty

    Naught2Sixty Brown Belt

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    Fools gold on The Baron imo. Hes much more skilled than Aljo, Ewell, and Kelleher too and just doesnt have the athleticism or reaction time to hang anymore and his damage meter from the TJ fights is absolutely filled.
     
    Last edited: Jan 31, 2019
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  6. Broe.

    Broe. Orange Belt

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    I love Vick for 2.35!
     
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  7. Jordan3399

    Jordan3399 Green Belt

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    Definitely wouldn't put a big bet on him, might hit his ITD at big +odds and see if he has one more arm-triangle in him. For all his decline only Dillashaw ever finished him and 15 minutes is a long time for a guy like Sanders to not find a way to get finished.
     
  8. Stunna77

    Stunna77 Purple Belt

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    I felt dirty about it as Sanders is a flake, but went 2u -165, Barao's decline is one of the fastest and most notable that I can think of. He is done.
     
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  9. burge13

    burge13 Blue Belt

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    Cain was 1.62 at my book not that long ago but didnt want to tie money up on a guy who will likely pull out injured. Into 1.40 now and i regret not betting. Pass now i think
     
  10. Jordan3399

    Jordan3399 Green Belt

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    Like Ngannou at this price. Honestly at this stage I think Blaydes was arguably a tougher match up.

    Of course Cain could smother him but he's way too happy to box at times and after that lay off Ngannou at those odds is too good to pass on.

    If he does win though I expect Cain to finish, Stipe was totally gassed vs Ngannou, if Cain had Ngannou in that state he'd of got the TKO.
     
  11. Gugabe

    Gugabe Purple Belt

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    Vick's maxbet tier at this price IMO. I'd rate him at like -200.
     
  12. clemente

    clemente Orange Belt

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    Can't wait for that nervousness when the main fight starts
     
  13. ClipYourDirtyWings

    ClipYourDirtyWings The Best is Blessed

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    I’m looking for a reason to bet Casey as a +2xx dog over Calvillo, but I’m not finding it. And I underestimated my girl Calvillo in the Botelho fight. FDNGTD +125 is...eh. I’ll probably wait for the Calvillo sub prop to open and hit that hedged with Casey by decision. I hate only making prop bets, but I’m not paying -260 for Calvillo, did it once against JoJo and she easily could have lost that decision.
     
  14. PolarBearPaulVarelans

    PolarBearPaulVarelans Green Belt

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    Huh? Calvillo won all 3 rounds pretty easily on my card (and on 2 of the 3 judges), and while there are some people that will give Calderwood a round, that was a clear, dominant display of Calvillo boxing Calderwood's ears off, with zero chance of her losing the decision.

    Are you remembering the right fight?
     
  15. Jordan3399

    Jordan3399 Green Belt

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    Calvillo was outstruck by Esparza let alone Calderwood and it wasn't just 'some people that will give Calderwood a round' it was the majority of fans and media outlets.

    Calvillo literally clearly won less than 90 seconds of the fight with grappling at the end of the first and third to get those rounds the rest of the time was Calderwood walking her down and picking her apart with kicks. Calderwood should of got the second round at a minimum and the others were close. Even the third she'd of won if Calvillo didn't shoot and get her back in the last 30 seconds and with a few seconds more in first she was probably going to get back to her feet as she had escaped the armbar attempt. It certainly wasn't a clear dominant display by any means she landed more punches but it's MMA not a boxing match, that's not how scoring works. Even in Muay Thai itself boxing scores little it's the kicks that win rounds and getting marched down and outlanded for most of the fight isn't even close to dominant.

    I favour Calvillo heavily to beat Casey but that's cause Casey's grappling sucks, if Calvillo tries getting into a pure striking match with her she's probably going to lose a clear decision.
     
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  16. PolarBearPaulVarelans

    PolarBearPaulVarelans Green Belt

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    I'm mostly ignoring you, but it's really ironic that one day after asking me if I was trolling about Reneau and a bunch of childish insults, you would write something this painfully stupid. If you think Calderwood won the striking against Calvillo, then you know absolutely nothing about striking or scoring in MMA and should go back to getting drunk and high at uni instead of wasting your time and money on MMA betting.

    To be fair, in the past few weeks you're only the second person from the British Isles to argue this about their hero and proud representative of their women, Joanne Calderwood.

    This post (not by me) was a fairly good retort; https://forums.sherdog.com/threads/...-discussion-26.3890217/page-25#post-148516111
     
    Last edited: Feb 3, 2019
  17. Jordan3399

    Jordan3399 Green Belt

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    I do enjoy how you like to highlight my personal life so much Paul like it makes you look better when the fact is despite all that I end up being more successful in my bets than you.

    Also, for the record, I'm entirely English, and couldn't care less where Calderwood is from. That borderline xenophobia and sterotypical nonsense is just a bit ridiculous and just so you know Scotland is a different country.

    You just make so many sweeping statements against me that are just so wrong.
    Reneau is a better striker than Holm and on par with Shevchenko? What? She got dominated in a striking match with Holm?

    DJ has amazing world class TDD?

    How Chookagian is going to beat Eye easily?

    And thats just a few times you've called me out off the top of my head.

    Come on Paul, I'm sure you can do better than this.
     
    Last edited: Feb 3, 2019
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  18. rille31

    rille31 Brown Belt

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    So This is on a sunday?
     
  19. ClipYourDirtyWings

    ClipYourDirtyWings The Best is Blessed

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    I remember it very clearly as I had a substantial amount of money on Calvillo. IIRC Calvillo won 30-27 on two scorecards and 29-28 on one. Aside from dominating in the grappling exchanges in rd1 and the end of rd3 when she almost subbed her, the fight was very back and forth. I remember thinking Calvillo should win, but I was not confident at all when the scorecards were about to be read, especially with the fight being in JoJo’a home arena. “Easily could have lost that decision” might have been misspeaking on my part, but she didn’t perform like a -2xx favorite and I regretted the bet afterwards despite the winning result. I’m certainly not going to bet Calvillo -260 against a taller, longer opponent who is more than capable of outpointing her for 3 rounds en route to a shitty decision
     
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  20. Ruthfella

    Ruthfella Green Belt

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    Crazy value on Ngannou.
    +245 I got
     

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