UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Aldo

Anybody know what azamat was weighing in at previously at heavy? I’m seeing 230

seems like vanderaa will have a massive size advantage
 
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Captain Chesapeake said:
Anybody know what azamat was weighing in at previously at heavy? I’m seeing 230

seems like vanderaa will have a massive size advantage
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Yeah, this size/weight difference is what I'm thinking might be a major factor going into this. If you are thinking about a Vanderaa bet it might be best to put it down before everyone else sees the size diff at the weigh ins.
 
Guld said:
Yeah, this size/weight difference is what I'm thinking might be a major factor going into this. If you are thinking about a Vanderaa bet it might be best to put it down before everyone else sees the size diff at the weigh ins.
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I actually am hoping more money comes in on vanderaa. Azamat is a problem. Vanderaa opened at +285. I don’t think vanderaa can use his size to his advantage here. Azamat moves much better and has much faster hands. I think he’s better everywhere and vanderaa lacks power and the physicality to be able to bully him
 
Captain Chesapeake said:
I actually am hoping more money comes in on vanderaa. Azamat is a problem. Vanderaa opened at +285. I don’t think vanderaa can use his size to his advantage here. Azamat moves much better and has much faster hands. I think he’s better everywhere and vanderaa lacks power and the physicality to be able to bully him
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That works too haha
 
remaining 2c:

Azamat/Vanderaa: Dog or pass for me. Was contemplating laying the juice on a 35-year-old making his debut, who has never been to a 3 round dec and who almost got finished by a 0-3 guy on the regionals. Ultimately I decided I would fade Lins who is chinny, slow, and dropping down to LHW which was not going to end well. They are now giving the same odds against a natural HW pushing the limit, who has an iron chin, and a 9inch reach advantage. If Azamat KOs Vanderaa early I will be impressed, if not lots of questions will be answered about him. Vanderaa isn't that good and there is a big speed advantage, but value is value. Azamat fought Guto in Brave at open weight, and used a more wrestling gameplan. Ended up winning a 2 round DEC but he didnt look as dominant as usual, got swept in the first as well ended up on the bottom. Vanderaa showed an improved getup game against another mammoth in Romanov, he made him work all of round 1 and finished the round on his feet. Azamat could be giving up 40 pounds here. Shouldn't overthink this one, odds are already shifting.

Barbarena/Weeks: Wish Weeks had his contender series fight because I would have loved to see some more tape. Very athletic and explosive dude who seems to have a power and wrestling background. Seems well-rounded but I haven't seen him fight much adversity other than losing some positions in scrambles. He is only 5-0 as a pro but 15 - 3 as an amateur with some boxing fights sprinkled in there. Barbarena seems washed, the back injury and his war with Luque seem to have taken it out of him. Ivy is not UFC lvl but I cut him some slack. The Witt fight was another bad look, seems like he can't take the shots he used to be able to take. He is still a brawler with holes in his game that can crack and loves to pressure. Hopefully, odds are super wide, might tempt me to play Weeks small.

Allen/Curtis: Just broke Curtis down recently. Durable veteran, great boxing, southpaw, works the body, turns it on late, decent power. Bit old now and bit hittable, can be held up against the cage. I sprinkled him against Hawes by KO in round 3, insane odds. Hawes was the perfect flake to fade in that scenario. I feel like Allen is another level and the kid is only 25 which is nuts. His standup against Puna looked so much more improved at Sandford. He was still hittable but man is he durable. I think that Strickland KO was a mixture of damage and volume adding up, as well as cardio. He kept coming forward eating shots like a zombie, no break in the action. Also, I think cutting weight twice messed him up, cardio is usually solid. It could be closer than the odds if Allen gives Curtis a 3 round standup fight, but Allen has a lot of advantages. Youth, wrestling, ground game, size etc. It's his fight to lose.

Guida/Santos: Man Santos is so good everywhere, a shame he is ancient. Great Muy Thai, solid power. Awsome ground game, wrestling, takedown defence and judo throws. He has awful cardio though, and if he doesn't get the finish his fights will be a sweat. You can go all the way back to his draw with Norman Parke, split with Martins. He paces himself because he knows he doesn't have the cardio. Even after almost getting Bogotatov out of there he looked dead and started flaking. Was lucky Bogatov was trying to obliterate his nuts instead of fight. He was most likely 2-0 going into the third against Dawson, or a split as it was very close. Guida is a dog, he still has some gas in the tank. My only problem is he could get finished early, which is why I passed on him pre-fight against Madsen. I live bet him after round 1 I still think I got robbed there. Wobbled Madson in first, won the second clear, and the last judge gives it 30-27 Madsen lol. Anyway, Guida live bet is a safer option, in my opinion, I can't lay that price tag on a 41-year-old Santos who falls off the cliff after the first. Dawson kept cracking him with looping over hands, pretty much the only strike Guida throws along with leg kicks and he has underrated power.

Fiziev/Riddel: Good fight. I like Riddel here. I think he is a lil bit underrated and Fiziev a bit overrated. Fiziev is more fluid and flashy, has a lot of movement, can seamlessly switch stances and mix it up. Riddel is more planted always looking to pull counter, slip and rip. He has a killer lead left hook and works the body well too. Both work the body actually. Fiziev seems to slow down, possibly due to his output and movement. Riddel has great cardio, comes on strong breaks fighters and is a dog, has no quit. Riddel also has underrated wrestling. Before the UFC he has a 5 round title fight where he just wrestled the guy for all 5 not using any striking. He used it in almost every fight. Helped him win the Dober fight. I think Dober is a more dangerous fight than Fiziev. Hits like a truck, he is super calm and dangerous in the pocket and the pressure is insane. Fiziev can be hit, he likes to have fun in there and has lost rounds because of it. His body kicks are naked a lot of the time and it has got him countered by Green, Diakhase and Moicano. Riddel is the best striker he has faced so far and I think he is in for a war here. He probably starts off good with his volume and speed, and Riddel takes over late. I got barely dog odds on Riddel, was thinking of live betting him instead to be safe but we shall see.

Aldo/Font: Great fight, those early odds were ridiculous. I got Aldo early at 2.50 and after tape, I'm just deciding on how much action to keep and how much to hedge pre-fight or live bet. Long story short I think it's a close fight. Font got a lot of hype because of his win streak but nobody on it is too impressive. Cody, Moraes and Simon are all chinny and not top 5 guys. Pettis was a FLW. Before that, he got dominated by Assuncao. He is 34 now and only has a 1-inch reach advantage over Aldo. Aldo is a huge BW and has a stiff jab of his own. Recently he has changed up his game training Boxing with the Brazilian Army and you can see a big difference. Beating Aldo with a one-dimensional boxing style and a jab isn't going to be easy. Max pushed the pace and he ate bombs on the chin to tire Aldo out. Font is patient and methodical. He is heavy on the front foot and I'm surprised more people haven't punished him with the leg kick. Cody landed a few, he didn't check any. Aldo is a different story, he dropped Yan with a leg kick, and made him switch stances later in the second. He waited till the 3rd against Pedro and then wobbled and dropped him with leg kicks as well. You need to plant heavy on the lead leg to throw a jab. Aldo doesn't give up the center, he stays there moving his head waiting to open up with counters and brutal body shots which will also be there. Another aspect is Fonts takedown defense, he was ok against Simon but get taken down easily against Cody 2 -3 times and Marlon held him down for almost half the round. Aldo had Veras back for all of round 3, his jits is world-class. He went for a takedown against Yan in the first so its deffs in his pocket if he wants to use it.
That failed takedown and GNP is what lost him the round, otherwise, he would be 2-0 against Yan. The odds are bit more accurate now, but still wide potentially. I'm not saying its going to be 2-0 Aldo early but if the fight ends up being a close striking affair it should be more of a pickem. I do hate that its a 5 rounder, and that Aldo has to pace himself. Although we have seen recently both Norma and Viera going 5 rounds and people thinking they will gass. Also thought Aldo would gass late against Pedro but he was a level above with skill. Will probably keep a unit on Aldo, looked to live bet hedge before the tide starts turning. GG.
 
Definitely interested in Weeks if the odds are there. He's much more experienced than a 5-0 record suggests with the ammy experience. Hopefully people looking at the 5-0 record and betting Barb pushes the line wide. Might hold on this one until near fight time. Barb is washed, prime Barb isn't losing to Witt even on a bad night.

Weeks looked great in LFA and although he has a recent loss in boxing it was a split against a guy who's 8-0 and has demolished everyone else and was probably supposed to destroy Darian.
 
Card said:
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Opening / Current
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i dont understand how monserrat is +145, am i the only one who finds her to be a favorite in this match...?
 
lefontes said:
Murkazakov and O1.5, Kape, Morono, O1.5 Allen/Curtis, Aldo

Love all
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I really like "Morono, O1.5 Allen/Curtis, Aldo"
I'll probably do the same.
I also did a mini parlay with Morono and Smolka.
 
BigSteve said:
remaining 2c:

Azamat/Vanderaa: Dog or pass for me. Was contemplating laying the juice on a 35-year-old making his debut, who has never been to a 3 round dec and who almost got finished by a 0-3 guy on the regionals. Ultimately I decided I would fade Lins who is chinny, slow, and dropping down to LHW which was not going to end well. They are now giving the same odds against a natural HW pushing the limit, who has an iron chin, and a 9inch reach advantage. If Azamat KOs Vanderaa early I will be impressed, if not lots of questions will be answered about him. Vanderaa isn't that good and there is a big speed advantage, but value is value. Azamat fought Guto in Brave at open weight, and used a more wrestling gameplan. Ended up winning a 2 round DEC but he didnt look as dominant as usual, got swept in the first as well ended up on the bottom. Vanderaa showed an improved getup game against another mammoth in Romanov, he made him work all of round 1 and finished the round on his feet. Azamat could be giving up 40 pounds here. Shouldn't overthink this one, odds are already shifting.

Barbarena/Weeks: Wish Weeks had his contender series fight because I would have loved to see some more tape. Very athletic and explosive dude who seems to have a power and wrestling background. Seems well-rounded but I haven't seen him fight much adversity other than losing some positions in scrambles. He is only 5-0 as a pro but 15 - 3 as an amateur with some boxing fights sprinkled in there. Barbarena seems washed, the back injury and his war with Luque seem to have taken it out of him. Ivy is not UFC lvl but I cut him some slack. The Witt fight was another bad look, seems like he can't take the shots he used to be able to take. He is still a brawler with holes in his game that can crack and loves to pressure. Hopefully, odds are super wide, might tempt me to play Weeks small.

Allen/Curtis: Just broke Curtis down recently. Durable veteran, great boxing, southpaw, works the body, turns it on late, decent power. Bit old now and bit hittable, can be held up against the cage. I sprinkled him against Hawes by KO in round 3, insane odds. Hawes was the perfect flake to fade in that scenario. I feel like Allen is another level and the kid is only 25 which is nuts. His standup against Puna looked so much more improved at Sandford. He was still hittable but man is he durable. I think that Strickland KO was a mixture of damage and volume adding up, as well as cardio. He kept coming forward eating shots like a zombie, no break in the action. Also, I think cutting weight twice messed him up, cardio is usually solid. It could be closer than the odds if Allen gives Curtis a 3 round standup fight, but Allen has a lot of advantages. Youth, wrestling, ground game, size etc. It's his fight to lose.

Guida/Santos: Man Santos is so good everywhere, a shame he is ancient. Great Muy Thai, solid power. Awsome ground game, wrestling, takedown defence and judo throws. He has awful cardio though, and if he doesn't get the finish his fights will be a sweat. You can go all the way back to his draw with Norman Parke, split with Martins. He paces himself because he knows he doesn't have the cardio. Even after almost getting Bogotatov out of there he looked dead and started flaking. Was lucky Bogatov was trying to obliterate his nuts instead of fight. He was most likely 2-0 going into the third against Dawson, or a split as it was very close. Guida is a dog, he still has some gas in the tank. My only problem is he could get finished early, which is why I passed on him pre-fight against Madsen. I live bet him after round 1 I still think I got robbed there. Wobbled Madson in first, won the second clear, and the last judge gives it 30-27 Madsen lol. Anyway, Guida live bet is a safer option, in my opinion, I can't lay that price tag on a 41-year-old Santos who falls off the cliff after the first. Dawson kept cracking him with looping over hands, pretty much the only strike Guida throws along with leg kicks and he has underrated power.

Fiziev/Riddel: Good fight. I like Riddel here. I think he is a lil bit underrated and Fiziev a bit overrated. Fiziev is more fluid and flashy, has a lot of movement, can seamlessly switch stances and mix it up. Riddel is more planted always looking to pull counter, slip and rip. He has a killer lead left hook and works the body well too. Both work the body actually. Fiziev seems to slow down, possibly due to his output and movement. Riddel has great cardio, comes on strong breaks fighters and is a dog, has no quit. Riddel also has underrated wrestling. Before the UFC he has a 5 round title fight where he just wrestled the guy for all 5 not using any striking. He used it in almost every fight. Helped him win the Dober fight. I think Dober is a more dangerous fight than Fiziev. Hits like a truck, he is super calm and dangerous in the pocket and the pressure is insane. Fiziev can be hit, he likes to have fun in there and has lost rounds because of it. His body kicks are naked a lot of the time and it has got him countered by Green, Diakhase and Moicano. Riddel is the best striker he has faced so far and I think he is in for a war here. He probably starts off good with his volume and speed, and Riddel takes over late. I got barely dog odds on Riddel, was thinking of live betting him instead to be safe but we shall see.

Aldo/Font: Great fight, those early odds were ridiculous. I got Aldo early at 2.50 and after tape, I'm just deciding on how much action to keep and how much to hedge pre-fight or live bet. Long story short I think it's a close fight. Font got a lot of hype because of his win streak but nobody on it is too impressive. Cody, Moraes and Simon are all chinny and not top 5 guys. Pettis was a FLW. Before that, he got dominated by Assuncao. He is 34 now and only has a 1-inch reach advantage over Aldo. Aldo is a huge BW and has a stiff jab of his own. Recently he has changed up his game training Boxing with the Brazilian Army and you can see a big difference. Beating Aldo with a one-dimensional boxing style and a jab isn't going to be easy. Max pushed the pace and he ate bombs on the chin to tire Aldo out. Font is patient and methodical. He is heavy on the front foot and I'm surprised more people haven't punished him with the leg kick. Cody landed a few, he didn't check any. Aldo is a different story, he dropped Yan with a leg kick, and made him switch stances later in the second. He waited till the 3rd against Pedro and then wobbled and dropped him with leg kicks as well. You need to plant heavy on the lead leg to throw a jab. Aldo doesn't give up the center, he stays there moving his head waiting to open up with counters and brutal body shots which will also be there. Another aspect is Fonts takedown defense, he was ok against Simon but get taken down easily against Cody 2 -3 times and Marlon held him down for almost half the round. Aldo had Veras back for all of round 3, his jits is world-class. He went for a takedown against Yan in the first so its deffs in his pocket if he wants to use it.
That failed takedown and GNP is what lost him the round, otherwise, he would be 2-0 against Yan. The odds are bit more accurate now, but still wide potentially. I'm not saying its going to be 2-0 Aldo early but if the fight ends up being a close striking affair it should be more of a pickem. I do hate that its a 5 rounder, and that Aldo has to pace himself. Although we have seen recently both Norma and Viera going 5 rounds and people thinking they will gass. Also thought Aldo would gass late against Pedro but he was a level above with skill. Will probably keep a unit on Aldo, looked to live bet hedge before the tide starts turning. GG.
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Man Guida's problem is that he's a wrestler at heart, but his overall grappling game isn't that good. He doesn't defend subs well, even as a really long time veteran of the sport. 4 of his last 7 losses are by sub. And now he's facing not just a good submission guy, but a straight up WORLD CLASS bjj player. Like, world champion level. And on top of that, Santos is the better striker. So it's just soooo easy to envision Guida getting tagged and reactively shooting on Leo and then it's a wrap.

But yeah...dat gas tank of Leo's. Yikes. But even still, I think Leo finishing Clay is the most likely outcome. Clay's PTV is to bounce around, don't get caught and don't engage in grappling, and hope Leo tires enough for Clay to outland him as the fight goes on.
 
mkess101 said:
Man Guida's problem is that he's a wrestler at heart, but his overall grappling game isn't that good. He doesn't defend subs well, even as a really long time veteran of the sport. 4 of his last 7 losses are by sub. And now he's facing not just a good submission guy, but a straight up WORLD CLASS bjj player. Like, world champion level. And on top of that, Santos is the better striker. So it's just soooo easy to envision Guida getting tagged and reactively shooting on Leo and then it's a wrap.

But yeah...dat gas tank of Leo's. Yikes. But even still, I think Leo finishing Clay is the most likely outcome. Clay's PTV is to bounce around, don't get caught and don't engage in grappling, and hope Leo tires enough for Clay to outland him as the fight goes on.
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I mean yea its possible, hence the live bet. I feel like Clay will engage in grappling no matter what, its who he is. Madsen was one of the only guys he didnt try with seemed like he came in with a decent gameplan. I am not confident enough in which way it will go as good as Santos is hes not super active with his subs.
 
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