UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Aldo

[mkess101]

I mean yea its possible, hence the live bet. I feel like Clay will engage in grappling no matter what, its who he is. Madsen was one of the only guys he didnt try with seemed like he came in with a decent gameplan. I am not confident enough in which way it will go as good as Santos is hes not super active with his subs.

Yeah Leo isn't like Do Bronx where he's constantly looking for chokes but vs Guida I'm not sure that will matter (if Guida does in fact welcome grappling). Guida just has this bizarre way of sort of spazzing on the mat where he leaves himself open to be swept or gives his neck. It's like he's this ball of energy that is incapable of doing anything methodically. And vs some guys that's fine. But you can't do that vs top tier grapplers, they will take advantage and make you pay for reckless aggression on the mat. With elite grapplers, it's mostly small movements. Guida tries to go ballistic and gets himself caught way too often.

Doesn't mean it for sure happens here but it seems like one of the likeliest scenarios to me.

 

[guesswhoseback]

what do you consider smoked, a 2 round decision <45>

Just because you win a decision doesent mean you didnt smoke that fighter

 

[svmr_db]

i dont understand how monserrat is +145, am i the only one who finds her to be a favorite in this match...?

Monseratt Ruiz is off the card now, Cheyenne Vlismas is now fighting Mallory Martin in her place.

 

[BigSteve]

Just because you win a decision doesent mean you didnt smoke that fighter

interesting take. I consider 'Smoking' someone getting him out of there. Regardless that fight wasent a smoking by any means

 

[guesswhoseback]

interesting take. I consider 'Smoking' someone getting him out of there. Regardless that fight wasent a smoking by any means

I hadnt seen the fight? but no Im actucally opposite a smoking in my eyes is usually a 3 or 5 rd UD or a late finish for example GSP over fitch. Masdival in my eyes didnt smoke Askren

 

[Main_Card_MMA]

what do you consider smoked, a 2 round decision <45>

I'm sure I'm in the wrong with terminology, as usual, but yeah, a 3 round unanimous decision that's not competitive could be "smoked" IMO. I guess most people are like you and consider "smoked" a Green/Iaquinta TKO in the 1st.

 

[guesswhoseback]

I'm sure I'm in the wrong with terminology, as usual, but yeah, a 3 round unanimous decision that's not competitive could be "smoked" IMO. I guess most people are like you and consider "smoked" a Green/Iaquinta TKO in the 1st.

Yes a dominant win thats not a fluke KO or sub is a smoking it could be by dec or inside the distance

 

[Shelter]

Weeks +170

ding!

Only +110 when it finally showed up on my Bet365, I'm jealous!

 

[burge13]

Weeks ITD +240 though?

 

[mkess101]

Hey @mkess101 amd who I consider the best gambler on this site or capper or whatever the hell u want to call it what do you think of these Im trying to continue my great streak of MMA betting

Smolka-135
Kape-200 i wont bet him unless his line drops below -200 come fight time
Matthews-190 If it gets to -200 or higher wont bet him
Todorvich-165

I am also looking at Ov/Un but lines arent out yet so I wont even post those

Alright here's my thoughts:

I like Smolka -135 okay, but I think I like the u2.5 at +130 better. I think Smolka is pretty likely to find a finish, but if he doesn't I can see him folding. Smolka sub +350 could be in play too. I think I maybe already posted this LOL now that I'm typing it.

Kape got steamed hard, he's -275 now. At -200 yeah okay I can see it, now...nah. He's too low volume to pay that kind of juice imo. He's absolutely way more talented and the speed edge should be big, but he's had multiple stretches over multiple fights where he just did nothing.

Matthews should win, but odds are probably **about** right. I don't see a finish as all that likely though, so maybe Matthews dec at +130. Or split the bet between his ML and the dec prop.

Yeah I like Todorovich but rd 1 likely will be dicey. Pitolo comes out blazing then fades generally. I still think the juice is justified, Pitolo just isn't that good imo. I guess the hedge is Pitolo rd 1, I don't see him winning if the fight goes past the first. That said, Dusko starts fairly quickly too so maybe FDNGD around evens is the way to play this one. Or split between Dusko ML and FDNGD.

 

[lefontes]

O1.5 Vandera x Murzakanov is value. Vandera is durable against LHW. Russian fighter should win but by decision ou later tko.

 

[The Disasters]

I found zero fights to bet at size this weekend. I think Allen by sub, Allen ITD, and Allen by 1st round sub are ok but I'm not too excited about any of them and I'm limited pretty low on those anyway.

I did a round robin with the Allun Under 1.5, Knight, Puelles, and Pettis in Bellator, but again, not at size. There were enough prices mixed in there that if it turns out I'm really right I want to make sure I get paid, even though my confidence isn't high enough to risk my normal bet sizes.

 

[Thesnake101]

Weeks ITD +240 though?

Seems decent enough, Bryan's toughness seems to still be there, but the body is starting to protest. Wheels will finish falling off sooner than later, and Darian seems pretty dangerous.

 

[guesswhoseback]

All fighters made weight Vanderaa made weight and then randomly they cancelled the fight

 

[guesswhoseback]

Weird my vegas app very little line movements this card at all I right down all the lines ov/un and fighter lines and a couple of times a day I recheck it and if any changes ill write it down on my notepad strange but oh well hopefully I can have another good event 3 events in a row profit like 7 out of the past 8

 

[Card]

Everyone made weight.

Jared Vanderaa vs. Azamat Murzakanov scrapped from UFC on ESPN 31

 

[Black Paladin]

Everyone made weight.

Jared Vanderaa vs. Azamat Murzakanov scrapped from UFC on ESPN 31

Thanks for the effort with the face-off pics.

 

[Guld]

Just finished watching the weign ins + the staredowns. Jose looks really drained, but also ridiculously ripped/juiced. I think even Font was surprised at how Aldo looked haha.
Still leaning towards Jose taking this.
Also Santos was huge compared to Guida (more than I expected).

 

[Bakayoko]

This isn’t how this is supposed to go down. Where’s the fighting between you guys from the balkans? Call him a gypsy or something.

Sherdogers know no nation but sherdog

 

[Oblivian]

I'm pretty sure this may be the most dogs that I've played in all of my years betting.