2c continued:
Zalgas/Kape: Not a fan of this fight for betting. Kape has better hands but the guy is so low volume if he doesn't get the KO will be sweat. On the other hand, I can't bet Zalgas his performances are so underwhelming. The over is probably going to be juiced, Zalgas DEC probably the best value but rather pass.
Mathews/Wells: Going to try to fade Matthews here again. Guy has been babied all UFC, this is a much stiffer test than the odds imply in my opinion. Matthews is very athletic and strong, but he doesn't seem to be improving too much. He is a black belt but the ground game ain't amazing. You can break his whole game up as circling and fainting, blitzing with punches, or level changing with an explosive double when pressured. He seems to slow down and not be a fan of pressure. He turned and ran against Diego Sachez when pressured lol. Wells is going to bring it, super impressed with what he did to Alves. He cracks super hard, has a Gracie black belt and trains out of Philli with Brady and Sabbatini. No doubt Matthews will lvl change when Wells comes in super aggressive with one of those hooks, but I don't think he will have a problem on the ground. He gives his back up a bit and then powers out of it to get on top. Wells also slows down a bit too. Honestly, I don't have the biggest read on how the fight will go other than Wells being aggressive and spending some time on his back, but I feel like the fight that he is going to bring will be making Matthews super uncomfortable. Wells will fight for your money. Dog or pass.
Pitolo/Todorovic: Oh man i have already spoken a lot about this fight, which means im going to crash and burn. I am Serb so I could be biased, although I usually shit on fighters from my country because I know they are shite. Goes back to our soccer days, always underwhelming. Todorovic was my hope, smart fighter for once other than Rakic. Pitolo will most likely come out strong, he is fast and has the athleticism advantage early. The problem is he is a gasser and a flake. His game isn't great, he can wrestle but has no jits. He has 'boxing', but he gets outstruck for 3 rounds by a green Impa who kept throwing looping overhands. He looked like he had enough after round 1 in that fight, I backed him as a dog lol. Another fight that I dont know how it will go, mostly due to Todorovic. He can stand, he can wrestle Pitolo, he can push him up against the cage and dirty box him up. Todorovic is better everywhere, but I usually try not to cap fights like that, I try to look at styles. Pitolo won't KO him, he has 1 KO in UFC which is Byrd, a massive flake who gassed in the second in his retirement fight. Coincidently Pitolos only win in UFC as well. He got beat by Callum Rockstar Porter for god sakes. Subbed by Darren Stewart. I see people saying he was beating Marquez. Marquez always had shit takedown defence he just keeps going for the guillotine instead of defending. If Pitolo wrestles he will gass out and get subbed. Robo cop took Dusko down twice and held him down for about 5 seconds. Robo Cop is legit on the ground, his control against the Iron Turtle in the first was super impressive. Not going to talk about Todorovic's low hands, its his style, he has a good chin, he rolls with punches. Bobby Green has been doing it his whole career and still cops crap over it. Pitolo won't be able to take advantage. I got 2u on Dusko, if he burns me so be it he shouldn't be in the UFC if he cant beat Pitolo. Might hedge a lil with Pitolo DEC.
Crute/Hill: This fight, was on Hill pre-tape, all the money coming in on Crute. Thought after tape I was going to see the same but no, im still on Hill. Seems like a lot of recency bias after the Craig fight. Crute is still green, he fights like his nickname. His entries are average, legit crawls on his knees and then he looks to muscle everything. Hes a beast on top, Machado black belt, but even then control isn't amazing. In the standup, he still has a weakness for straight punches and throws everything at 100%. Smith isn't the only one that was tagging him even Paul Craig was lol. Hill usually fights very smart, stays on the outside, fights long, jabs and 1-2's, lots of kicks from southpaw and good volume. The guy that fought OSP looks like a solid fav in my opinion. I want to keep this short don't want to go into Stosic taking him down, Craig submitting him and Crute submitting Craig etc. if you are an experienced gambler you know there is more to it. Hill is great at getting up, digging underhooks and circling off the cage. He admitted the ego got the better of him against Craig and wanted to show his jits. He has 5 inch reach advantage, 2 more than Smith had over Crute. That jab and 1-2 will be there. He could give up takedowns, and I'm ok with that at this price. Don't see him getting insta-subbed, and the longer this fight goes the better the Hill side will look.