UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Aldo

tbf Riddell had a dog fight with Jaime Malarky, is Jaime any better than Bobby Green? Could you picture Jaime getting close enough to bloody up Fiziev, maybe, i'd say both guys have shown to be human. Riddel's only lost was to a grappler in the regionals. I think this is his biggest hole, just by simple logic, Fiziev has that over him, it could be the straw that edges him the win.
When have you seen Fiziev use his grappling offensively? I think the chance is zero to none he uses it this fight. The dude loves to show off his striking and likes the battles, it's very apparent.
 
tbf Riddell had a dog fight with Jaime Malarky, is Jaime any better than Bobby Green? Could you picture Jaime getting close enough to bloody up Fiziev, maybe, i'd say both guys have shown to be human. Riddel's only lost was to a grappler in the regionals. I think this is his biggest hole, just by simple logic, Fiziev has that over him, it could be the straw that edges him the win.

Jaime was Brad's 8 fight so it was pretty impressive how he beat the shit out of him but at the same time showed grit to survive hard positions. Remember before that fight Brad was considered some random Aussie with one dimensional kickboxing background. With the tape that they had on the guy many were siding with Jaime here on that one.
I think there are still lots of unknowns about both guys. We do not know either men's ceiling or at least I dont.
 
When have you seen Fiziev use his grappling offensively? I think the chance is zero to none he uses it this fight. The dude loves to show off his striking and likes the battles, it's very apparent.
Never assume a fighter wont change gameplans. I can point to times where guys who were strikers opted to go full on wrestler mode because they just wanted to show that side of them even though they were always on the feet.

Examples : Pantoja vs Royval , Da-un Jung vs William Knight

Fiziev has two takedowns in the ufc and grappled more in regional scene. Given his extensive sambo background, there is a chance we see him go in there to mix it up.
 
Jaime was Brad's 8 fight so it was pretty impressive how he beat the shit out of him but at the same time showed grit to survive hard positions. Remember before that fight Brad was considered some random Aussie with one dimensional kickboxing background. With the tape that they had on the guy many were siding with Jaime here on that one.
I think there are still lots of unknowns about both guys. We do not know either men's ceiling or at least I dont.
its going to come down to fight iq. im still leaning fiziev but wont be shocked if riddell wins.
 
Added 2 more future hockey bets because I profited this week and if I dont do some stupid shit like betting future hockey shit ill end up blowing it all on some dumb shit like Jappanese division 5 soccer I found some hotel here in vegas some off the wall shit u can bet on.

Capitals+2300
Flames+2000

So far here are my future stanley cup finals odds and yes I do realise even if 1 of my team wins it is still very possible that I will lose money but like I alwalys say I gamble for fun so why the fuck not do it. because 6 months from now if 1 of my teams wins hey thats like a 1000$ i didnt have before. or whatever payout might be I will only show my futures that are currenly in the playoffs

Capitals-+2000/+2800////+2800/+3000/+2300(4 seed)

Blues+3800/////+2400////+2000(7 seed)

Jets+3400(8 seed)

Flames+2500/+2000(1 seed)

Each bet was for 50$
 
2c nice and early this week lets go:

Smolka/Morales: Pass fight for me. Morales has nice hands and decent power, but super low volume. It has lost him fights in the UFC before. He is primarily a boxer and doesn't really mix it up or check kicks even though so many have exploited that against him. Smolka is such a gumby, awful athletism and is a bit slow and hittable. Quinonez the jobber was piecing him up in the first and took him down with ease. Eventually, the pressure was too much and Quinonez flaked. I can't bet a punching bag like Smolka at these odds even though he has the better ground game. Morales doesn't spend much time on the ground, but I also need better odds on him.

Morono/Gall: I hope Gall gets pumped here. Morono is better everywhere but I can't lay that price out of principle. Gall will fall off the wagon like usual in later rounds, cardio sucks. Wrestling is also average, standup is somewhat improving. Gall is good at landing sneaky shots on the break Il give him that. He cracked Sage and Williams with hooks as they were exiting and entering the clinch. He ain't submitting Morono who is a second-degree black belt under Draculino. There is some unpredictability with Gall and I hate betting on fights like that, but might live bet Moreno after first. Moreno potentially comes out strong like against Pettis and Cerrone and just rolls from there onwards but that's fine I'm happy with no action.

Puelles/Gruetz: Taped this fight TWICE due to varying opinions on this forum and elsewhere. I haven't really changed my mind and im still passing unless the odds improve. Not really impressed with Puelles, but he is 25 now and improving and also at Stanford now. He has a great single and chain wrestling but nothing special on top. He fought 2 bottom of the barrel opponents in his last 2 so its hard to know how much he has improved. The fact that he couldn't sub Mariano, ( the guy that gave Lando the first-round kimura so easily Lando was surprised ), is a bit embarrassing. Greutz has come up against lots of fighters trying to take him down, Skelly, Ramos, Lauzon, Garcia. Don't rate Puelles over any of them at the time they fought Gruetz. He was on the ground in every round against ADCC competitor Ramos and survived. Tide was turning in my opinion until Ramos did a slick back take in the third and choked him out. I think Gruetz gives up a takedown or 2 early, gets up and puts in the work with his pressure and striking like usual. Because hes a fav and he will give up takedowns I can't play him, Greutz is best as a big dog. I will most likely live bet it like the Garcia fight or maybe pre bet if he becomes a dog.

Alonzo/Knight: Interesting this fight went from a pick-em to Alonzo being a solid fav. Alonzo had an unimpressive DEC against Herman where he made me sweat every step of the way, and Knight got dominated by a huge Jung and got a RD1 KO over Cherant. Honestly still think this should be a pick-em, and I'm considering a sprinkle on Knight even though I don't have the clearest read on the fight. Alonzo is showing no improvement, if he doesn't get the KO his fights are a sweat. Got countered early by Herman and he started backing up and holding his eye, I almost spat my drink out. He would also constantly jab Herman, and then swing a massive overhand that would miss by miles because Herman was pushed back by his jab haha. I thought to my self how many times will you make the same mistake. If it wasn't for the calf kick that would have been a sweaty split. Knight will at least fight for your money. He is fast, has good kicks and volume with them. He has gone 3 rounds before and seems to have way better cardio for a natty boy. If I'm feeling extra disciplined I might wait after round 1 to live bet Knight but we will see where the line goes.

Martin/Vismas: Pass fight for me. I love Vismas' aggression and athletism, it's rare in WMMA. She seems to have decent wrestling and takedown defense unless its a head and arm throw lol. Obviously, that's Monster Rats main move, she hits it on everyone when I was taping her and finished her toughest opponent in Invicta with it. Martin will go for a traditional takedown and her entries are horrendous. Her best takedown is a trip against the cage. She's great at passing ASAP to half guard and side control. She is not very athletic and its going to be scary for her while standing in my opinion. Vismas could give up takedowns by going full retard hence why I can't play the line. Even Viana striking was making Martin uncomfortable and we all saw what happened with Cifers.
 
Never assume a fighter wont change gameplans. I can point to times where guys who were strikers opted to go full on wrestler mode because they just wanted to show that side of them even though they were always on the feet.

Examples : Pantoja vs Royval , Da-un Jung vs William Knight

Fiziev has two takedowns in the ufc and grappled more in regional scene. Given his extensive sambo background, there is a chance we see him go in there to mix it up.
I get your point, but I'd rather focus on things I've seen from a fighter in recent times. Betting on a a chance that a fighter is suddenly gonna change his way of fighting seems like shooting in the dark. Also, I think Fiziev's cardio is not really up to par to go for a grappling heavy game plan. He slowed down late in all of his fights.
 
Now it's Murzakanov vs Vanderaa
Thoughts?
 
I get your point, but I'd rather focus on things I've seen from a fighter in recent times. Betting on a a chance that a fighter is suddenly gonna change his way of fighting seems like shooting in the dark. Also, I think Fiziev's cardio is not really up to par to go for a grappling heavy game plan. He slowed down late in all of his fights.
I put riddell in one of my draftkings lineups, it’s definitely a pick em.
 
2c continued:

Zalgas/Kape: Not a fan of this fight for betting. Kape has better hands but the guy is so low volume if he doesn't get the KO will be sweat. On the other hand, I can't bet Zalgas his performances are so underwhelming. The over is probably going to be juiced, Zalgas DEC probably the best value but rather pass.

Mathews/Wells: Going to try to fade Matthews here again. Guy has been babied all UFC, this is a much stiffer test than the odds imply in my opinion. Matthews is very athletic and strong, but he doesn't seem to be improving too much. He is a black belt but the ground game ain't amazing. You can break his whole game up as circling and fainting, blitzing with punches, or level changing with an explosive double when pressured. He seems to slow down and not be a fan of pressure. He turned and ran against Diego Sachez when pressured lol. Wells is going to bring it, super impressed with what he did to Alves. He cracks super hard, has a Gracie black belt and trains out of Philli with Brady and Sabbatini. No doubt Matthews will lvl change when Wells comes in super aggressive with one of those hooks, but I don't think he will have a problem on the ground. He gives his back up a bit and then powers out of it to get on top. Wells also slows down a bit too. Honestly, I don't have the biggest read on how the fight will go other than Wells being aggressive and spending some time on his back, but I feel like the fight that he is going to bring will be making Matthews super uncomfortable. Wells will fight for your money. Dog or pass.

Pitolo/Todorovic: Oh man i have already spoken a lot about this fight, which means im going to crash and burn. I am Serb so I could be biased, although I usually shit on fighters from my country because I know they are shite. Goes back to our soccer days, always underwhelming. Todorovic was my hope, smart fighter for once other than Rakic. Pitolo will most likely come out strong, he is fast and has the athleticism advantage early. The problem is he is a gasser and a flake. His game isn't great, he can wrestle but has no jits. He has 'boxing', but he gets outstruck for 3 rounds by a green Impa who kept throwing looping overhands. He looked like he had enough after round 1 in that fight, I backed him as a dog lol. Another fight that I dont know how it will go, mostly due to Todorovic. He can stand, he can wrestle Pitolo, he can push him up against the cage and dirty box him up. Todorovic is better everywhere, but I usually try not to cap fights like that, I try to look at styles. Pitolo won't KO him, he has 1 KO in UFC which is Byrd, a massive flake who gassed in the second in his retirement fight. Coincidently Pitolos only win in UFC as well. He got beat by Callum Rockstar Porter for god sakes. Subbed by Darren Stewart. I see people saying he was beating Marquez. Marquez always had shit takedown defence he just keeps going for the guillotine instead of defending. If Pitolo wrestles he will gass out and get subbed. Robo cop took Dusko down twice and held him down for about 5 seconds. Robo Cop is legit on the ground, his control against the Iron Turtle in the first was super impressive. Not going to talk about Todorovic's low hands, its his style, he has a good chin, he rolls with punches. Bobby Green has been doing it his whole career and still cops crap over it. Pitolo won't be able to take advantage. I got 2u on Dusko, if he burns me so be it he shouldn't be in the UFC if he cant beat Pitolo. Might hedge a lil with Pitolo DEC.

Crute/Hill: This fight, was on Hill pre-tape, all the money coming in on Crute. Thought after tape I was going to see the same but no, im still on Hill. Seems like a lot of recency bias after the Craig fight. Crute is still green, he fights like his nickname. His entries are average, legit crawls on his knees and then he looks to muscle everything. Hes a beast on top, Machado black belt, but even then control isn't amazing. In the standup, he still has a weakness for straight punches and throws everything at 100%. Smith isn't the only one that was tagging him even Paul Craig was lol. Hill usually fights very smart, stays on the outside, fights long, jabs and 1-2's, lots of kicks from southpaw and good volume. The guy that fought OSP looks like a solid fav in my opinion. I want to keep this short don't want to go into Stosic taking him down, Craig submitting him and Crute submitting Craig etc. if you are an experienced gambler you know there is more to it. Hill is great at getting up, digging underhooks and circling off the cage. He admitted the ego got the better of him against Craig and wanted to show his jits. He has 5 inch reach advantage, 2 more than Smith had over Crute. That jab and 1-2 will be there. He could give up takedowns, and I'm ok with that at this price. Don't see him getting insta-subbed, and the longer this fight goes the better the Hill side will look.
 
Now it's Murzakanov vs Vanderaa
Thoughts?
The size difference might be an issue, but Murzakanov should have a decent advantage on the mat. Vanderaa got controlled rather easily by Romanov and Spivak.
 

Pitolo/Todorovic:
Oh man i have already spoken a lot about this fight, which means im going to crash and burn. I am Serb so I could be biased, although I usually shit on fighters from my country because I know they are shite. Goes back to our soccer days, always underwhelming.

Hah, congrats on qualifying for the worlds. As an Ajax fan and having some Serbian fam myself, it was great to see Tadic leading you guys to the victory.
 
Hah, congrats on qualifying for the worlds. As an Ajax fan and having some Serbian fam myself, it was great to see Tadic leading you guys to the victory.
thanks man. I was at Switzerland game in Russia. Had no expectations so I got hammered before it even started then I got my hopes up. Might go Quatar we shal see
 
2c continued:

Zalgas/Kape: Not a fan of this fight for betting. Kape has better hands but the guy is so low volume if he doesn't get the KO will be sweat. On the other hand, I can't bet Zalgas his performances are so underwhelming. The over is probably going to be juiced, Zalgas DEC probably the best value but rather pass.

Mathews/Wells: Going to try to fade Matthews here again. Guy has been babied all UFC, this is a much stiffer test than the odds imply in my opinion. Matthews is very athletic and strong, but he doesn't seem to be improving too much. He is a black belt but the ground game ain't amazing. You can break his whole game up as circling and fainting, blitzing with punches, or level changing with an explosive double when pressured. He seems to slow down and not be a fan of pressure. He turned and ran against Diego Sachez when pressured lol. Wells is going to bring it, super impressed with what he did to Alves. He cracks super hard, has a Gracie black belt and trains out of Philli with Brady and Sabbatini. No doubt Matthews will lvl change when Wells comes in super aggressive with one of those hooks, but I don't think he will have a problem on the ground. He gives his back up a bit and then powers out of it to get on top. Wells also slows down a bit too. Honestly, I don't have the biggest read on how the fight will go other than Wells being aggressive and spending some time on his back, but I feel like the fight that he is going to bring will be making Matthews super uncomfortable. Wells will fight for your money. Dog or pass.

Pitolo/Todorovic: Oh man i have already spoken a lot about this fight, which means im going to crash and burn. I am Serb so I could be biased, although I usually shit on fighters from my country because I know they are shite. Goes back to our soccer days, always underwhelming. Todorovic was my hope, smart fighter for once other than Rakic. Pitolo will most likely come out strong, he is fast and has the athleticism advantage early. The problem is he is a gasser and a flake. His game isn't great, he can wrestle but has no jits. He has 'boxing', but he gets outstruck for 3 rounds by a green Impa who kept throwing looping overhands. He looked like he had enough after round 1 in that fight, I backed him as a dog lol. Another fight that I dont know how it will go, mostly due to Todorovic. He can stand, he can wrestle Pitolo, he can push him up against the cage and dirty box him up. Todorovic is better everywhere, but I usually try not to cap fights like that, I try to look at styles. Pitolo won't KO him, he has 1 KO in UFC which is Byrd, a massive flake who gassed in the second in his retirement fight. Coincidently Pitolos only win in UFC as well. He got beat by Callum Rockstar Porter for god sakes. Subbed by Darren Stewart. I see people saying he was beating Marquez. Marquez always had shit takedown defence he just keeps going for the guillotine instead of defending. If Pitolo wrestles he will gass out and get subbed. Robo cop took Dusko down twice and held him down for about 5 seconds. Robo Cop is legit on the ground, his control against the Iron Turtle in the first was super impressive. Not going to talk about Todorovic's low hands, its his style, he has a good chin, he rolls with punches. Bobby Green has been doing it his whole career and still cops crap over it. Pitolo won't be able to take advantage. I got 2u on Dusko, if he burns me so be it he shouldn't be in the UFC if he cant beat Pitolo. Might hedge a lil with Pitolo DEC.

Crute/Hill: This fight, was on Hill pre-tape, all the money coming in on Crute. Thought after tape I was going to see the same but no, im still on Hill. Seems like a lot of recency bias after the Craig fight. Crute is still green, he fights like his nickname. His entries are average, legit crawls on his knees and then he looks to muscle everything. Hes a beast on top, Machado black belt, but even then control isn't amazing. In the standup, he still has a weakness for straight punches and throws everything at 100%. Smith isn't the only one that was tagging him even Paul Craig was lol. Hill usually fights very smart, stays on the outside, fights long, jabs and 1-2's, lots of kicks from southpaw and good volume. The guy that fought OSP looks like a solid fav in my opinion. I want to keep this short don't want to go into Stosic taking him down, Craig submitting him and Crute submitting Craig etc. if you are an experienced gambler you know there is more to it. Hill is great at getting up, digging underhooks and circling off the cage. He admitted the ego got the better of him against Craig and wanted to show his jits. He has 5 inch reach advantage, 2 more than Smith had over Crute. That jab and 1-2 will be there. He could give up takedowns, and I'm ok with that at this price. Don't see him getting insta-subbed, and the longer this fight goes the better the Hill side will look.
So we are from the same tribe!I'm Croatian.Agree with most of things but I'm high on Crute.It's not just that he subbed Craig who subbed Hill.
He's a far superior grappler than Hill.He's physically stronger.He's got average entries but is real strong and explosive.The fight is in the apex,will be easier to close distance.Hill got up from Stosic TD's but you are Serbian and probably know that Stosic sucks once he gets someone down,Nzechukwu was getting up with no problems,it's not even close to Crutes control.Also,if Craig got the insta-sub there's definitely a good chance Crute gets it too.I'm confident Crute will smesh on the ground,I'm more concerned in him wanting to prove his striking game,but he can also take a shot and hits hard so wouldn't count out him knocking out Hill.Got him at 1,61 and will keep.
 
So we are from the same tribe!I'm Croatian.Agree with most of things but I'm high on Crute.It's not just that he subbed Craig who subbed Hill.
He's a far superior grappler than Hill.He's physically stronger.He's got average entries but is real strong and explosive.The fight is in the apex,will be easier to close distance.Hill got up from Stosic TD's but you are Serbian and probably know that Stosic sucks once he gets someone down,Nzechukwu was getting up with no problems,it's not even close to Crutes control.Also,if Craig got the insta-sub there's definitely a good chance Crute gets it too.I'm confident Crute will smesh on the ground,I'm more concerned in him wanting to prove his striking game,but he can also take a shot and hits hard so wouldn't count out him knocking out Hill.Got him at 1,61 and will keep.
I was born there so there ya go twins. I mean we can go around in circles all day, I have already done it in discord haha. Stosic is the better wrestler, Crute might not get them as easy against Hill. Kennedy is another huge guy that is hard to take down and hold down and Stosic was throwing him around when he decided to wrestle. If we are talking about control, wasn't too impressed with Crutes control over a middleweight in Mikal. He was muscling him down because he was so much bigger but he kept standing back up. With 2 minutes to go in the first, Mikal actually disengaged and they were standing in the middle again until Crute shot again. Mikal was gassed at that point but still got up. Had money on Crute and I was nervous he was going to gass himself out thank God Mikal gassed first. Alot of Hills regional footage Hill is doing the same thing as Mikal. Crute tried taking Modestas down too, shot on his knees, got him up against cage didn't seem to have success then kneed MOdestas in nuts. I don't count his takedowns over Craig or Smith who get blown over by a gust of wind. Lots of assumptions in this fight, I am going off by what I have seen from Hill and Crute and trying to play the value side. I don't expect to convince you or anyone else, odds are not moving for 2 weeks so clearly im on my own little island.
 
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