UFC 319: Live Dogs

[cshireman4]

As the thread title (hopefully) suggests, looking at betting underdogs who have a chance to pull off some magic on Saturday night. I'm usually a 'bet heavy on the favorite' kind of guy, but this card seems to be stacked with potential upsets. Haven't made a thread in forever and they usually somehow turn out even worse than I had imagined, but...Buy the ticket, take the ride I suppose.

-Nursulton Ruziboev (+140) vs Bryan Battle (-166)
A pretty even line, but still a good chance to make some money here.

-Drakkar Klose (+114) vs Edson Barboza (-135)
Always been a big fan of Barboza; It's just hard for me to see him as a betting favorite these days. Slim margins. Still a chance to more than double your money though.

-Alexander Hernandez (+260) vs Chase Hooper (-325)
Sherdogger's lotto ticket: The irresistible low probability chance of a high payout. Alex has the potential to stop a fight and Chase, as good as he has been looking, could always get caught. I like the line given their skillsets.

-Jessica Andrade is lighting your money on fire (imo). Won't allow myself to be burned again. To each their own though.

-Jared Cannonier (+164) vs Michael Page (-198)
I think the odds should be tighter than they actually are, maybe even Jared as a slight favorite. That might be an overstatement, but I do like Cannonier at +164

Lerone Murphy (+145) vs Aaron Pico (-175)
Lerone Murphy could humble Pico in his UFC debut. Murphy has proven to be a true test. Absence of evidence isn't evidence of absence. Just difficult to know how good Pico really is. Feels like a coin toss and the odds say otherwise.

-DDP (+210) vs Khamzat (-258)
I like Khamzat here, but +210 seems insane. DDP is a legit champion who is tough as hell and has finishing ability. Might sprinkle a little here to protect the emotional downside of a Khamzat loss.

Obviously not endorsing these guys to all get it done. But this has been the first fight card in a long time where I've looked at matchups and this many underdogs have given me pause relative to the betting odds. What say you Sherdog?

 

[Kowboy On Sherdog]

DDP... but looks like +210 might be long gone as money is now coming in on him after the stare-down...

 

[Hymen Crusher]

Ddp as underdog is easy money

 

[JustOnce]

Aaron Pico is the chosen one, but he hasn't fought anyone as good as Murphy EVER, and I personally think Evloev fight was a much better fight for him, and if you talked to me before, you know I rate Evloev more highly than most people around here. And tbh I don't know if Aaron ever recovered mentally from those brutal losses in the past when they rushed him. I think it could go either way, and wasn't Pico the underdog when the line opened, I don't know. Aaron's wrestling is as good as it gets, pound for pound, I'd say he's the only guy right now I think is a better wrestler than guys like Khamzat, Islam and Arman, especially in pure wrestling and mma too, at least they won't be outwrestling Pico at least in this universe. People don't realize how good his wrestling is. But problem with Aaron is that, I don't know if he can keep people down, zero submission threat, nor if he won't be too eager to show people his striking, he does have power and a good boxing I guess, and his chin might never have recovered nor his confidence imo. Like he never fought anyone good for a long time nor for five rounds. If he loses, it would be very unfortunate and Aaron had more talent in his toe than guys like Paddy or O'Malley do combined. I just wish they didn't rush him and I'm not sure if we will ever see the version we were promised...

DDP vs Khamzat could go either way too. Arguably the best MW fight since Weidman vs Silva 1. DDP didn't try to duck him like Android Silva did though. It's a great, great fight. Probably the best fight UFC put up since Ngannou vs Gane for the undisputed heavyweight championship with some backstory as well. That fight was a toss up too. When you have a toss up fight for a belt, it's a good times.

I'd say there's a decent chance Murphy and DDP both win their fights. And that'd be a pity.

 

[Koala]

Lerone Murphy, but I don't really remember Pico in a tough fight
If you go with the best line, Alex Hernandez at +260. Chase Hooper has been beating only senior citizens

 

[BFoe]

Lots of good live dogs on this one.

Dricus
Murphy
Ruziboev
Cannonier

I actually think Alex Hernandez is a live dog too.

 

[BFoe]

Aaron Pico is the chosen one, but he hasn't fought anyone as good as Murphy EVER, and I personally think Evloev fight was a much better fight for him, and if you talked to me before, you know I rate Evloev more highly than most people around here. And tbh I don't know if Aaron ever recovered mentally from those brutal losses in the past when they rushed him. I think it could go either way, and wasn't Pico the underdog when the line opened, I don't know. Aaron's wrestling is as good as it gets, pound for pound, I'd say he's the only guy right now I think is a better wrestler than guys like Khamzat, Islam and Arman, especially in pure wrestling and mma too, at least they won't be outwrestling Pico at least in this universe. People don't realize how good his wrestling is. But problem with Aaron is that, I don't know if he can keep people down, zero submission threat, nor if he won't be too eager to show people his striking, he does have power and a good boxing I guess, and his chin might never have recovered nor his confidence imo. Like he never fought anyone good for a long time nor for five rounds. If he loses, it would be very unfortunate and Aaron had more talent in his toe than guys like Paddy or O'Malley do combined. I just wish they didn't rush him and I'm not sure if we will ever see the version we were promised...

DDP vs Khamzat could go either way too. Arguably the best MW fight since Weidman vs Silva 1. DDP didn't try to duck him like Android Silva did though. It's a great, great fight. Probably the best fight UFC put up since Ngannou vs Gane for the undisputed heavyweight championship with some backstory as well. That fight was a toss up too. When you have a toss up fight for a belt, it's a good times.

I'd say there's a decent chance Murphy and DDP both win their fights. And that'd be a pity.

Pico is very good, he’s just so damn chinny he’s not reliable.

 

[j18lee]

-Jared Cannonier (+164) vs Michael Page (-198)
I think the odds should be tighter than they actually are, maybe even Jared as a slight favorite. That might be an overstatement, but I do like Cannonier at +164

Lerone Murphy (+145) vs Aaron Pico (-175)
Lerone Murphy could humble Pico in his UFC debut. Murphy has proven to be a true test. Absence of evidence isn't evidence of absence. Just difficult to know how good Pico really is. Feels like a coin toss and the odds say otherwise.

-DDP (+210) vs Khamzat (-258)
I like Khamzat here, but +210 seems insane. DDP is a legit champion who is tough as hell and has finishing ability. Might sprinkle a little here to protect the emotional downside of a Khamzat loss.

These are the 3 I have strong opinions on.

Page is very difficult to knock out, very slippery as we know. Cannonier is not the type to go for broke and pressure against a great mover, slick striker as we saw with his fight against Adesanya. So you're basically betting on a Cannonier KO here, and Page has only be KO'd once in 26 career fights.

I agree on Murphy. Pico has all the tools, but he's just not a natural fighter (not as an insult, I'm forgetting a better word). He's an amazing technician. He should win on paper, but in the cage, I say Murphy has 51% chance to win so I'd take the + odds.

I, like almost Sherdogger, initially thought, wow, +210 for a champ who is 9-0 in the UFC against an amazing contender who did not look great against two WWs, Usman and Burns. Of course you take the crazy positive odds on DDP. But then I started thinking about the odds from a gambling and not sporting perspective. The oddsmakers of course know DDP is the 9-0 champ who is far more active that will draw bets from the public, yet they still made him +210, meaning that they probably think the real odds for Khamzat even greater than -258, maybe even -300 or more. I'm no longer on the DDP side betting wise. I'm still rooting for him, but I think I'm going to use Khamzat as a parlay piece.

 

[JustOnce]

Pico is very good, he’s just so damn chinny he’s not reliable.

yooo how did you get hired as a staff? congrats

 

[JustOnce]

if there's one gif that describes Pico, it's

..

 

[cshireman4]

Aaron Pico is the chosen one, but he hasn't fought anyone as good as Murphy EVER, and I personally think Evloev fight was a much better fight for him, and if you talked to me before, you know I rate Evloev more highly than most people around here. And tbh I don't know if Aaron ever recovered mentally from those brutal losses in the past when they rushed him. I think it could go either way, and wasn't Pico the underdog when the line opened, I don't know. Aaron's wrestling is as good as it gets, pound for pound, I'd say he's the only guy right now I think is a better wrestler than guys like Khamzat, Islam and Arman, especially in pure wrestling and mma too, at least they won't be outwrestling Pico at least in this universe. People don't realize how good his wrestling is. But problem with Aaron is that, I don't know if he can keep people down, zero submission threat, nor if he won't be too eager to show people his striking, he does have power and a good boxing I guess, and his chin might never have recovered nor his confidence imo. Like he never fought anyone good for a long time nor for five rounds. If he loses, it would be very unfortunate and Aaron had more talent in his toe than guys like Paddy or O'Malley do combined. I just wish they didn't rush him and I'm not sure if we will ever see the version we were promised...

DDP vs Khamzat could go either way too. Arguably the best MW fight since Weidman vs Silva 1. DDP didn't try to duck him like Android Silva did though. It's a great, great fight. Probably the best fight UFC put up since Ngannou vs Gane for the undisputed heavyweight championship with some backstory as well. That fight was a toss up too. When you have a toss up fight for a belt, it's a good times.

I'd say there's a decent chance Murphy and DDP both win their fights. And that'd be a pity.

I admittedly haven't had as much exposure to him. Remember when he first started in Bellator and had a lot of promise. Kind of stopped following once he had those back to back losses earlier on. I do see he has had quite a bit of success since then though. Just a lot of names I'm not terribly familiar with. Glad he finally made the jump to the UFC so I will for sure be seeing his fights more often and will also get a better idea of his ceiling fighting real contenders.

 

[cshireman4]

Lerone Murphy, but I don't really remember Pico in a tough fight
If you go with the best line, Alex Hernandez at +260. Chase Hooper has been beating only senior citizens

I had the same thoughts. Easy to imagine Alex Hernandez shitting the bed and/or Chase Hooper winning fights that I doubt him in. But +260 is somewhat inviting. I actually ended up taking Alex by KO/TKO/DQ at +550. Can't imagine him winning a decision and a submission over Chase Hooper might be a sign of end times.

 

[cshireman4]

Lots of good live dogs on this one.

Dricus
Murphy
Ruziboev
Cannonier

I actually think Alex Hernandez is a live dog too.

Agreed. Pissed that the Ruziboev bet was voided, but I'll live. Still have a solid card and a lot of degenerate wagers to yell about.

 

[cshireman4]

These are the 3 I have strong opinions on.

Page is very difficult to knock out, very slippery as we know. Cannonier is not the type to go for broke and pressure against a great mover, slick striker as we saw with his fight against Adesanya. So you're basically betting on a Cannonier KO here, and Page has only be KO'd once in 26 career fights.

I agree on Murphy. Pico has all the tools, but he's just not a natural fighter (not as an insult, I'm forgetting a better word). He's an amazing technician. He should win on paper, but in the cage, I say Murphy has 51% chance to win so I'd take the + odds.

I, like almost Sherdogger, initially thought, wow, +210 for a champ who is 9-0 in the UFC against an amazing contender who did not look great against two WWs, Usman and Burns. Of course you take the crazy positive odds on DDP. But then I started thinking about the odds from a gambling and not sporting perspective. The oddsmakers of course know DDP is the 9-0 champ who is far more active that will draw bets from the public, yet they still made him +210, meaning that they probably think the real odds for Khamzat even greater than -258, maybe even -300 or more. I'm no longer on the DDP side betting wise. I'm still rooting for him, but I think I'm going to use Khamzat as a parlay piece.

I'm drowning in your logic on the Cannonier/MVP pick haha. The more I think about it, the more it seems that oddsmakers got that one right. Pico makes me nervous. Hate to bet for him or against him, really. Still put a small wager on Murphy just to feel alive.

The DDP vs Khamzat fight is where I might make some money. I get that Vegas has a vested interest in hiring the smartest bean counters in the world to ensure they don't lose their ass. I just think this particular matchup would be incredibly difficult to quantify with any amount of assuredness. Threw some money at the +210 ML and then hit Dricus by KO/TKO/DQ at +550 and Dricus by decision at +600. Can't envision a world in which he submits Khamzat, regardless of cardio or any other factor. I have a sickness betting against fighters/teams that I like. Either I'm a happy fan or I made some money. Best of luck on the parlays

 

[Ares Black]

Du Plessis is the only one I think might win. I suppose Murphy has a decent shot.

Drakkar Klose could definitely beat Barboza too.

 

[JustOnce]

I admittedly haven't had as much exposure to him. Remember when he first started in Bellator and had a lot of promise. Kind of stopped following once he had those back to back losses earlier on. I do see he has had quite a bit of success since then though. Just a lot of names I'm not terribly familiar with. Glad he finally made the jump to the UFC so I will for sure be seeing his fights more often and will also get a better idea of his ceiling fighting real contenders.

Pico was supposed to be the chose one. Probably the best wrestler in UFC including Khamzat, Islam, Arman and whatever. Likely the greatest prospect of all time. More talent in his toe than Bo, Paddy, O'Malley combined.

But he's been mostly crushing cans. Not sure if his chin or confidence is intact. Never been in a five rounder. No submission threat and no clue if he can keep people down against higher-level guys.

No telling if he'd beat Murphey who's pretty boring. Boring but good. Evloev was a much, much better match up. And I'm probably one of the biggest Evloev supporter on here.

Hope Pico pulls it off. I wish they didn't rush him. Not sure if he ever recovered.

 

[BigTruck]

Bet the cat on DDP

Quit teasing and flash them cheeks already!!!!

 

[Luthien]

Quit teasing and flash them cheeks already!!!!

 

[WoozyFailGuy]

if there's one gif that describes Pico, it's

..

"You were the chosen one unless you ran into guys with TDD and one shot stopping power."
Pico is good, very good, but I'm wondering if like with most Bellator guys it's too little too late, however I think both Evloev and Murphy are good stylistic matchups for him.

 

[JustOnce]

"You were the chosen one unless you ran into guys with TDD and one shot stopping power."
Pico is good, very good, but I'm wondering if like with most Bellator guys it's too little too late, however I think both Evloev and Murphy are good stylistic matchups for him.

That is NOT what happened.

Pico is not like most Bellator guys. Pico was supposed to be THE one. And they are not same stylistic match ups at all.

Murphy probably never wrestled someone half as good as Pico in his life. But I don't know if he can keep him down.