UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Tsarukyan 2

[Stat_Collector]

UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Tsarukyan 2 | MMA Event | Tapology

UFC 311 takes place Saturday, January 18, 2025 with 14 fights at Intuit Dome in Los Angeles, California. View fight card, video, results, predictions, and news.

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https://www.bestfightodds.com/events/ufc-311-3596

https://www.bestfightodds.com/events/ufc-3570

 

[mkess101]

Islam and Umar lines are too wide. Dogs playable in the main and co-main imo.

 

[Thesnake101]

Holland once again the favorite over a MW grappler? Cashing that dog line all day long.

Perez interests me since she seems like a decent wrestler and Rosa has not fought many girls looking to take her down since McMann took her to school, only had one takedown attempted against her since then, by Dumont, which succeeded. Feels worth a flier at +160.

Gonna wait for some props to see if I can take the edge off some of the favorites, might take a stab at Carpenter if the odds get even bigger.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Retape worthy dogs

Beneil, Muin, Merab, Ferreira, Dumas.

 

[Thesnake101]

Retape worthy dogs

Beneil, Muin, Merab, Ferreira, Dumas.

Imo Beneil is very live, chin is the only thing that's done him dirty for the biggest fights of his career. Putting that aside I don't think it would be unreasonable for him to grind on Moicano. He's usually got the better of fellow BJJ guys in these sorts of matchups.

Dumas I don't think is worth it, especially not against a guy who can match his dimensions and actually has some aggression in the UFC. Maybe live-bet territory if you notice Zach slowing down or something.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Islam and Umar lines are too wide. Dogs playable in the main and co-main imo.

consider too that merab's dec line is expected to hit the high 500 range too. This is basically his true ML since he's easy to handicap.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Imo Beneil is very live, chin is the only thing that's done him dirty for the biggest fights of his career. Putting that aside I don't think it would be unreasonable for him to grind on Moicano. He's usually got the better of fellow BJJ guys in these sorts of matchups.

Dumas I don't think is worth it, especially not against a guy who can match his dimensions and actually has some aggression in the UFC. Maybe live-bet territory if you notice Zach slowing down or something.

Beneil agreed.

Dumas has the better conditioning, it's not like he has a weak chin, that Ruz ko was sus with that eye poke. And Reese has a shotty gas tank, cant even put away a moving punching bag , and he was a -800 favorite.

Dumas is also a dec machine, easy fighter to handicap.

Holland once again the favorite over a MW grappler? Cashing that dog line all day long.

Perez interests me since she seems like a decent wrestler and Rosa has not fought many girls looking to take her down since McMann took her to school, only had one takedown attempted against her since then, by Dumont, which succeeded. Feels worth a flier at +160.

Gonna wait for some props to see if I can take the edge off some of the favorites, might take a stab at Carpenter if the odds get even bigger.

Big red flag for me is that Ridder took till R3 to submit Gm3 who had on average tapped in R1 to sub fighters. He under performed for my liking.

If he's going to take that long to subdue Holland, he's going to eat a lot of abuse . Holland is a lanky fighter with a long reach and solid power, he can chin Ridder. Id pass on this one.

Unless maybe playing the sub 3 prop bet maybe , too chaotic for me.

 

[mkess101]

Islam and Umar lines are too wide. Dogs playable in the main and co-main imo.

consider too that merab's dec line is expected to hit the high 500 range too. This is basically his true ML since he's easy to handicap.

You think there will be that big a delta between his ML and dec line? Man, if that's true his decision line will be must play. I agree, he's live to win but not finish.

 

[mkess101]

Beneil agreed.

Dumas has the better conditioning, it's not like he has a weak chin, that Ruz ko was sus with that eye poke. And Reese has a shotty gas tank, cant even put away a moving punching bag , and he was a -800 favorite.

Dumas is also a dec machine, easy fighter to handicap.


Big red flag for me is that Ridder took till R3 to submit Gm3 who had on average tapped in R1 to sub fighters. He under performed for my liking.

If he's going to take that long to subdue Holland, he's going to eat a lot of abuse . Holland is a lanky fighter with a long reach and solid power, he can chin Ridder. Id pass on this one.

Unless maybe playing the sub 3 prop bet maybe , too chaotic for me.

Quite frankly, De Ridder looked like dogshit until Gerald gassed. Now maybe that's first UFC fight jitters or whatever. But I'd need to see something more from him before I'd trust him.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Islam and Umar lines are too wide. Dogs playable in the main and co-main imo.

You think there will be that big a delta between his ML and dec line? Man, if that's true his decision line will be must play. I agree, he's live to win but not finish.

Christian Rodriguez dec line was around 450-500+ and he was like a 220+ ML.

Caliera dec line was 600+ at 240+ ML

Merab vs Yan was 200+ Ml and 340+ dec, which is 70% + ML
Merab at 260+(260+180 or 70% = 440) could estimate be around 440-480+ give or take. Depends how stingy the book is.

Still good value for a fight i believe to be 50/50

 

[Thesnake101]

Big red flag for me is that Ridder took till R3 to submit Gm3 who had on average tapped in R1 to sub fighters. He under performed for my liking.

Considering he's the only guy other than Hermansson to tap him, I'd say he did fine. 2013 sub losses aren't relevant to me when it comes to that tbh.

It's more of a play regarding Holland's consistent weakness towards bigger grapplers, don't think his 54% TDD rate will help him here, and once it hits the mat he'll be far behind in terms of skills imo.

 

[Guld]

Favs: I like Almeida and Talbott.
Evens: I'll be betting on Jiri. He is hittable, and Jamahal can crack, so I might regret it but I still think he takes it. I think Hill has overachieved and will be humbled accordingly.
Underdogs: I really like Arman and Merab at those odds. Merab especially. A bet on Jiri + Arman + Merab is 26.72 times your money, so I put a whopping $3 on that bet (to get $80.18) haha.
I want to bet Beneil as well, I just don't know if I trust his chin. On the other hand, I don't know if Moicano hits hard enough for it to be an issue, so Beneil might be the play there as well.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Considering he's the only guy other than Hermansson to tap him, I'd say he did fine. 2013 sub losses aren't relevant to me when it comes to that tbh.

It's more of a play regarding Holland's consistent weakness towards bigger grapplers, don't think his 54% TDD rate will help him here, and once it hits the mat he'll be far behind in terms of skills imo.

depends if he has decent scrambles and getups, Holland is not that bad at getting to his feet.

i cant be mad at a sub prop . i think it's the only way to bet Ridder. Maybe ML also

It's one of those plays that seems too obvious and the average bettor might hammer it too much and drive the line down. That's why i'm not too excited about it.