UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano

Taking CDF, I don't normally bet on lightweights his age but I like his volume on the feet. Dawson will get him down but I like his urgency to create opportunities to get up and I think he's good at avoiding back exposure while doing it which is what Dawson wants.
 
Hellowhosthat said:
Taking CDF, I don't normally bet on lightweights his age but I like his volume on the feet. Dawson will get him down but I like his urgency to create opportunities to get up and I think he's good at avoiding back exposure while doing it which is what Dawson wants.
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It's a weird one. Gamrot and Gillespie were both successfully able to impose their relentless wrestling style on him. But both were also great battles until CDF broke.

It's a winnable fight for Grant, but CDF looked flawless against Rebecki. Stylistically this is close to an even matchup, and it's very easy to see CDF winning.
 
For as dominant as Merab has looked, he looks like a no brainer bet. I really like RDR vs Holland too.
 
Thesnake101 said:
Jiri feels like a no brainer right now.
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Jiri seems risky and just straight up gambling on his chin. Jamahal hits hard and Jiri gets hit. I know this sounds like an over-simplification but it seems simple enough to me. Jiri's defense is not the best.
 
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I just put 1u on Jiri/Hill U1.5 at +110. Both guys have bad defense and can crack, Jiri has also taken so much damage lately not sure if his chin is the same and Hill hasn't fought many potent offensive fighters like Jiri apart from Alex who flatlined him with 1 punch.
 
jnes said:
I just put 1u on Jiri/Hill U1.5 at +110. Both guys have bad defense and can crack, Jiri has also taken so much damage lately not sure if his chin is the same and Hill hasn't fought many potent offensive fighters like Jiri apart from Alex who flatlined him with 1 punch.
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The reason i like o1.5 is exactly because both guys were KO'd in their last fights. It seems like guys coming off KO losses (especially in big fights) tend to be more conservative the next time out. With both these guys in that situation, feels like this one may not have the early fireworks that a lot of people are predicting.
 
www.mmamania.com

TUF pioneer, former UFC bad boy appointed cageside judge for important UFC 311 title fight

Former UFC middleweight and TUF 1 contestant returns as cageside judge for important upcoming title fight at the UFC 311 pay-per-view (PPV) card this Sat. night (Jan. 18) inside Intuit Dome in Los Angeles, California.
www.mmamania.com www.mmamania.com

Sal D'Amato is judging the two title fights. Aside from him, the other 2 bad judges aren't working on this card. Sal wasn't that bad in 2024 compared to previous years.

Weird thing is that there are a lot of new/random people judging this fight card. It could be a bad thing, but hard to say.
 
mkess101 said:
The reason i like o1.5 is exactly because both guys were KO'd in their last fights. It seems like guys coming off KO losses (especially in big fights) tend to be more conservative the next time out. With both these guys in that situation, feels like this one may not have the early fireworks that a lot of people are predicting.
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I honestly don't think it's in them to have a boring fight. Neither is gonna push the grappling (I'd be absolutely shocked if they did), and both are horrendous on the backfoot. Hill has the worst footwork out of any top 10 male fighter in the UFC and isn't going to be able to get away from any wild Jiri bullshit and if Jiri's on the backfoot his whole game is disintegrated. I'm usually an over guy but at slight + money this seems like a no brainer to me, 7.5 minutes is plenty of time for either guy to put each other out especially when both have been flatlined in their last fights so I'll take a stab on it.
 
Domitian said:
Jiri seems risky and just straight up gambling on his chin. Jamahal hits hard and Jiri gets hit. I know this sounds like an over-simplification but it seems simple enough to me. Jiri's defense is not the best.
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I mean, it's held up in the UFC so far against anyone not named Pereira. Hill also doesn't tend to spark guys out quickly, which gives Jiri a chance to grow into the fight and break him imo.
mkess101 said:
The reason i like o1.5 is exactly because both guys were KO'd in their last fights. It seems like guys coming off KO losses (especially in big fights) tend to be more conservative the next time out. With both these guys in that situation, feels like this one may not have the early fireworks that a lot of people are predicting.
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Hill maybe since it's his first time getting KO'd, but Jiri? I don't think he'll ever change his approach regardless. He didn't do it the first time he got KO'd in Rizin and didn't do it the first time he got finished by Alex. Very definition of live by the sword, die by the sword.
 
I get what you guys are saying about Jiri, but even with that guns blazing style---4 of his 6 UFC fights have gone over 1.5 rounds. And he's gone to rd 2 in all 6 of them. So any adjustment AT ALL by him to be less reckless probably has this fight going past rd 2.

Would I be stunned if it's over quickly? Nah. But I lean that there's some feeling out and respect of each other's power for awhile before there are fireworks.
 
I think Ailin Perez will score some TDs and upset Karol Rosa.
Perez UD

I also like Muin Gafurov. Watch his fight vs John Linekar. Rinya won’t put half that beating on Muin and doesn’t seem like Muin really quits unless put in a can’t win spot and I don’t see Rinya putting Muin there.
Muin TKO or Decision

Money Moicano has that kill or be killed mindset he said. Gonna be fireworks and someone’s getting finished. I think Dariush loses but the style Moicano is gonna fight is really can have him winning every second until he loses.
I hope Moicano but unsure really

Hill vs Jiri. I don’t like Hill as a fighter or tv personality or anything but Jiri fights similar to what I said about Moicano. If they’re gonna dance slow Hill wins all day. Crazy slugfest Jiri might clip Hill but I doubt it. Jiri fights emotionally and I like him as a just bleed guy but he’s willing put his chin out there more than Hill to lose.
Hill TKO or Ud
 
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I'm a little surprised how split down the middle is the public about Jiri/Hill fight. I think Jiri has a good edge here. He's wild and has no defence, but you have to take the fight to him and/or clearly be the much better technician, and I don't think Hill fits any of these conditions. Hill's footwork is almost abysmal. He crosses his feet constantly and when he engages in 50/50 exchanges he's always the guy not in a position to brace himself for the punch. Add to that history with achilles injury and him not looking in the best of shape... Think if we get Jiri in his usual form/mentality he should finish Hill.
 
decided to play Ridder sub for that price. 240+ is not bad.

Submission in round 1 is 700+

I notice that kevin does turn his back a lot when he faced Brendon Allen. And he's lost to almost every grappler he's faced.

I think Souza ,Gm3, and Marvin are the only guys who failed to sub him. but Souza was old and koed early, Gm3 lacked the skill to get the hooks on Holland's back and Marvin was inactively subbing guys in the ufc, most of his subs were earlier in his career.

If at any point Ridder attacks a Darce, arm triangle, or rear naked choke, i dont think Holland escapes.
 
Arman might be out
mkess101 said:
He is.

Moicano vs Islam for the belt. Beniel off the card.
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Nice that Isalm took it. Obviously champs line will be juiced as fook and will probably beat Moicano in rd 1 but I'll still be rooting for Money Moicano
 
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