UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura

Some tempting dogs there. Smith, Sterling, Volkov, Garry, and even Asakura.
I don't know if I'm confident in any of them, but I think a couple of those might hit. At the very least, they might be prime livebetting material.
 
Some tempting dogs there. Smith, Sterling, Volkov, Garry, and even Asakura.
I don't know if I'm confident in any of them, but I think a couple of those might hit. At the very least, they might be prime livebetting material.
dont forget Luque, i thought the lines should be reversed. Luque is only 32 btw, he's being given old-washed treatment.
 
dont forget Luque, i thought the lines should be reversed. Luque is only 32 btw, he's being given old-washed treatment.
He's looked bad and mostly wrestles now, which gives Gorimbo a very good shot at winning. The way he gave up against Buckley was pretty sad.

Choi KO, maybe RD 1. Think he can be accurate enough early to get the finish Emmers couldn't. Hooper sub also seems like the clearest play, but it's probably going to be prized like -250 or something.
 
He's looked bad and mostly wrestles now, which gives Gorimbo a very good shot at winning. The way he gave up against Buckley was pretty sad.

Choi KO, maybe RD 1. Think he can be accurate enough early to get the finish Emmers couldn't. Hooper sub also seems like the clearest play, but it's probably going to be prized like -250 or something.
against Buckley and Geoff neal. Themba doesn't have that kind of power to make him forced to wrestle.

If Themba could not finish Price , he has no finishing upside here for Luque. And Themba has been choked via guillotine which is highly vulnerable to Darce chokes that have similar mechanics. And Luque hits hard he could also ko Themba.
 
against Buckley and Geoff neal. Themba doesn't have that kind of power to make him forced to wrestle.

If Themba could not finish Price , he has no finishing upside here for Luque. And Themba has been choked via guillotine which is highly vulnerable to Darce chokes that have similar mechanics. And Luque hits hard he could also ko Themba.

I want to be on Luque but the way he pulled guard and just quit after a close 1st Round against Buckley is concerning.
 
Some tempting dogs there. Smith, Sterling, Volkov, Garry, and even Asakura.
I don't know if I'm confident in any of them, but I think a couple of those might hit. At the very least, they might be prime livebetting material.

What about Durden?
 
against Buckley and Geoff neal. Themba doesn't have that kind of power to make him forced to wrestle.

If Themba could not finish Price , he has no finishing upside here for Luque. And Themba has been choked via guillotine which is highly vulnerable to Darce chokes that have similar mechanics. And Luque hits hard he could also ko Themba.
Keep in mind washed up, small RDA also forced Luque to wrestle. And that Vicente had the brain bleed.
 
Keep in mind washed up, small RDA also forced Luque to wrestle. And that Vicente had the brain bleed.
he keeps a high guard, i'm not at all worried of him getting caught by Themba who is a spammy wrestler with little threat on the feet.

I would prefer that this fight turns into a grappling match, in the hopes Themba shoots into Luque's underarms and gets put in a D'arce choke.
 
What about Durden?
i think he's eating a knee and getting slept. He has a terrible habit of ducking when he panic-wrestles. he got koed with an uppercut and dropped by Mokaev's knee. I think the mma math suggest Cody can win because of the Johnson fight. But Van has better Tdd than Johnson does and knows how to scramble to his feet quicker, he's a more explosive fighter.
 
Buckley hits much harder than Themba who has 2 kos in his whole pro career.

He does, but that's not why Luque wilted that way. IDK what it was, it was super bizarre. One of the most game guys out there and he just folded even though he was never hurt badly or anything. It almost makes me think something was wrong with Luque before the fight or something.

Themba might just be a tad too much athletically at this point. I kinda feel like Luque will be game and not look anything like the shell of himself we saw vs Buckley but it still won't be enough.
 
Asukura--someone tell me about his grappling. I haven't seen his fights yet. All the highlights are of his "explosive striking" but vs Pantoja that means jack shit if he's smothering you and you're doing nothing but desperately trying not to get subbed.
 
He does, but that's not why Luque wilted that way. IDK what it was, it was super bizarre. One of the most game guys out there and he just folded even though he was never hurt badly or anything. It almost makes me think something was wrong with Luque before the fight or something.

Themba might just be a tad too much athletically at this point. I kinda feel like Luque will be game and not look anything like the shell of himself we saw vs Buckley but it still won't be enough.
the way i see it if his sub prop is 1000+ or 800+ i'll throw one size unit bet, i dont have faith on Luque other than a sub or bust. It's one of those things where i see an opportunistic submission based on Themba's active takedowns and shooting doubles , and getting choked 2x in his career, last against a regional guy Aj Fletcher.
 
He does, but that's not why Luque wilted that way. IDK what it was, it was super bizarre. One of the most game guys out there and he just folded even though he was never hurt badly or anything. It almost makes me think something was wrong with Luque before the fight or something.

Themba might just be a tad too much athletically at this point. I kinda feel like Luque will be game and not look anything like the shell of himself we saw vs Buckley but it still won't be enough.

I even remember the 1st Round being close but then he pulled guard but didn’t even try to do anything with it. He just shelled up and ate punches on his forearms until the ref stepped in. I’d probably bet Luque here if that Buckley fight never happened.
 
Just early leans. I’ll post my analysis on day of weigh ins

SAFETY PARLAY
Shavkat
Gane
Evloev

SAFETY PARLAY 2???
Gorimbo
Battle
Reyes

The only underdog i see potential is Asakura because the UFC gave him instant title shot. So they must see something special in him
 
Asukura--someone tell me about his grappling. I haven't seen his fights yet. All the highlights are of his "explosive striking" but vs Pantoja that means jack shit if he's smothering you and you're doing nothing but desperately trying not to get subbed.
the thing is if Asukura really does manage to cancel his grappling, Pantoja becomes very beatable, seems he's relied too much on his back packing. Almost lost to Erceg who's not as seasoned as Asukura, and Moreno and Royval just didn't have the grappling base to stop him. I dont have enough footage yet to see how good his grappling defense is, it's hard to find. Pantoja has a solid chin but he's got average boxing defense , very hittable to punches. I would not be shocked if we witness an upset where he got wreckless and got stopped early. Just looking at the strike stats, Royval Moreno and Erceg landed a combine 370 significant strikes.

This has some elements of the fight between Patricio Pitbull vs Chihiro Suzuki.

Pitbull came in underestimated his opponent , also had no familiarity with japanese fighters and got koed. And at the time Pitbull had never been koed before, only a leg injury.

Edit: i should back track Asukura doesn't have those lethal heavy hands he might need to pull it off.
 
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