UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura

Thesnake101 said:
It could happen since I doubt Garry would be able to point fight him for 25 minutes, meaning he'll be forced to throw heavy shots to get Shav's respect, but the guy survived clean shots from Neal so I don't know how likely it is that he gets folded here. Imo he cooks up Ian and finishes him.

Younger sub guy vs Guida? No thanks.
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Why not? it's not like Shakvat has good wrestling. Neal fight was majority on the feet. i see holes in Shakvat's game, one is that he leaves head up like a flag pole.
 
Am I the only one that thinks there is absurd value on Garry? I couldn't believe that Shavkat was at like -410, I think this fight is competitive wherever it goes. At most I would cap Shavkat as -140, it's really shocking to see such an odds disparity when Garry has been a big favorite in every other fight he has ever had. They are both in about the same position as title contenders and pretty much beat all the same guys. Seems like odds are extremely distorted just because people like Shavkat and his 100% finish rate and clown on Garry because he is a cuck and has some boring decision wins against legit guys. None of which should have any bearing on who would actually win a fight between the two.
 
Stat_Collector said:
Why not? it's not like Shakvat has good wrestling. Neal fight was majority on the feet. i see holes in Shakvat's game, one is that he leaves head up like a flag pole.
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I think he'll be good enough to take down Garry. Shav has taken down all but two of his opponents and Ian got taken down by Kenan, Gabe and Weeks. Since then the best wrestler he's fought is a washed up Magny who Shavkat also took down and subbed.

Shav is open on the feet but he's also extremely dangerous on the offense, which is the mode he's always on. I don't think Ian will like the pressure, power and volume coming his way and will wilt. Fwiw Ian absorbs more strikes than Shavkat.
 
Thesnake101 said:
I think he'll be good enough to take down Garry. Shav has taken down all but two of his opponents and Ian got taken down by Kenan, Gabe and Weeks. Since then the best wrestler he's fought is a washed up Magny who Shavkat also took down and subbed.

Shav is open on the feet but he's also extremely dangerous on the offense, which is the mode he's always on. I don't think Ian will like the pressure, power and volume coming his way and will wilt. Fwiw Ian absorbs more strikes than Shavkat.
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takedowns with no ctrl time means nothing to me. Neal stuffed him, Garry will likely too, Shavkat is a sub over position type of guy, he's not a ctrl wrestler like khabib and khamzat.

Shakvat has been finishing fights early , so his stats are misleading, he gets hit a lot to the head when he's not grappling. Ian is fighting more on the feet, those stats dont hold weight.
 
Stat_Collector said:
takedowns with no ctrl time means nothing to me. Neal stuffed him, Garry will likely too, Shavkat is a sub over position type of guy, he's not a ctrl wrestler like khabib and khamzat.
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Garry has rarely gotten his wrestling tested, Neal on the other hand holds an 87% TDD rate and shut down Belal when they fought.

I really don't see a reason why you'd put so much trust in Garry's 69% TDD when he's never fought a strong wrestler barring Weeks who was a very mediocre fighter.

Shavkat is no Khabib, but he's still pretty versatile and dangerous on the mat which is a very big plus when you already have a deadly stand up game as well.

His line is huge but I see more avenues for Shav to find a victory here compared to Ian's.
 
Thesnake101 said:
Garry has rarely gotten his wrestling tested, Neal on the other hand holds an 87% TDD rate and shut down Belal when they fought.

I really don't see a reason why you'd put so much trust in Garry's 69% TDD when he's never fought a strong wrestler barring Weeks who was a very mediocre fighter.

Shavkat is no Khabib, but he's still pretty versatile and dangerous on the mat which is a very big plus when you already have a deadly stand up game as well.

His line is huge but I see more avenues for Shav to find a victory here compared to Ian's.
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i just don’t see that being his strategy, if he doesn’t get the sub , it could turn into a striking match and i favor Garry there.
 
guesswhoseback said:
Wrestling
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Doubtful. After Chase schooled him at that Fury grappling thing, Clay probably will try to stand the whole fight. He will bounce around and do his normal thing. Chase probably catches him or gets him down and finishes.
 
mkess101 said:
Doubtful. After Chase schooled him at that Fury grappling thing, Clay probably will try to stand the whole fight. He will bounce around and do his normal thing. Chase probably catches him or gets him down and finishes.
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I like the over over hopefully it's set at 1.5
 
Oblivian said:
Honestly, what is his route to victory?
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Same thing he always does to win? It's not advocating Guida on being good but Hooper at that price is madness. He's a weedy kid, maybe he's improved a bit but I doubt he clears that line
 
burge13 said:
Same thing he always does to win? It's not advocating Guida on being good but Hooper at that price is madness. He's a weedy kid, maybe he's improved a bit but I doubt he clears that line
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He's been pretty dominant in his current streak and Clay's last win was a split over Holtzmann, I think a Chase finish is pretty likely here tbh. Hell Clay got caught by Puelles early in the first, don't see why Hooper wouldn't do the same.
 
burge13 said:
Same thing he always does to win? It's not advocating Guida on being good but Hooper at that price is madness. He's a weedy kid, maybe he's improved a bit but I doubt he clears that line
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Improved a lot imo. Dropped Slava Claus in the standup which if you'd have told me a couple years ago was possible I'd have laughed my ass off.

And we saw what Hooper and Guida looked like on the mat. Hooper took Clay apart to get to the calf slicer finish.

Edit: to be clear, -800 is silly. So you're not wrong there. But even with that said imo he's gonna run through Clay and we'll all say him as a big favorite made sense. But like...-400 seems more reasonable.
 
Thesnake101 said:
I think he'll be good enough to take down Garry. Shav has taken down all but two of his opponents and Ian got taken down by Kenan, Gabe and Weeks. Since then the best wrestler he's fought is a washed up Magny who Shavkat also took down and subbed.

Shav is open on the feet but he's also extremely dangerous on the offense, which is the mode he's always on. I don't think Ian will like the pressure, power and volume coming his way and will wilt. Fwiw Ian absorbs more strikes than Shavkat.
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Is it a 3 round fight or a 5 round fight?

If you were going to put odds on Shavkat getting at least one take down on Ian, what would you line it at? -150, -200, -300, etc.
 
PuertoRican said:
Is it a 3 round fight or a 5 round fight?

If you were going to put odds on Shavkat getting at least one take down on Ian, what would you line it at? -150, -200, -300, etc.
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Tapology has it slated as a 5 rounder, so I assume the takedown line for Shav will be o1.5 at -150. If I get o0.5 at a similar price I'm hammering it.
 
Ian garry

- panic wrestled and barely edged old MVP

-couldnt finish Magny (Shavkat choked him)

- wouldve lost to Geaf Neal if Neal pressed him in the 3rd round. Very passive performance. Was -110 in round 3 live odds
(Shavkat choked him)

-almost got KO’d by Kenan Song in round 1

-almost got KO’d by diabetic in round 1 in UFC debut
 
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