UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura

mkess101 said:
At this point may be as likely that Hooper tosses Clay and gets top position. Maybe not, but he's not the skinny weakling he was and he has something massive on his side here that matters a lot: youth.
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You should watch the bjj match on youtube, at first Guida does end up on top, but in the second exchanges Chase attacks the guillotine and drags Clay into the mat and gets the sub. The difference in the fight will obviously be Clay opting to clinch against the cage. If he shoots a blast double , very likely he could get subbed again, i dont know how much better Chase is in actual positional wrestling.
 
Stat_Collector said:
He subbed and beat leonardo Santos who was a 7x Jiu-jitsu World Champion.
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Santos was 41 and had 1 round in him by that point, just look at how his fights with Bogatov and Dawson went before the Clay fight. The sub was less due to Clay being the better grappler and more due to him being fresher, problem here is that Guida is now the older fighter in the matchup and Chase showed the ability to keep high volume against Fiore when they fought, that's more relevant to me than his 2021 fight with Peterson at a lower weight.
 
Stat_Collector said:
You should watch the bjj match on youtube, at first Guida does end up on top, but in the second exchanges Chase attacks the guillotine and drags Clay into the mat and gets the sub. The difference in the fight will obviously be Clay opting to clinch against the cage. If he shoots a blast double , very likely he could get subbed again, i dont know how much better Chase is in actual positional wrestling.
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I've seen the grappling match. And yeah there's a big skill gap on the mat. Chase worked his way to Clay's back pretty easily even when starting on bottom, and tied up the calf slicer quickly.

My point is more that Hooper looks physically different than even a year ago. His last fight, he finally didn't look so much like a gangly kid and looked more like what a UFC fighter looks like.
 
Sterling @ 2/1 is good stuff. Lots sleeping on this.

Russian guy isn't even that impressive.
 
Why I like Volkov to defeat Gane in rematch

-Gane inactivity
-Volkov improvements
-Gane zero evolution

Gane is still with Lopez which is a huge mistake. Lopez is not a championship level coach. Ngannou and Imavov realized this, which is why they left him. Gane sadly won’t understand this. Volkov understood this and he changed camps. It’s very important to change coaches to evolve. Jon Jones realized this as well

PREDICTION: Volkov 29-28 decision
 
I will write analysis for every single fight and post here on December 6. I still have to edit and write more. I done 10 hours of research so far. And this from what I understand.

Shavkat by SUBMISSION - best prop
Asakura, Volkov, Brown - best underdogs
Shavkat, Reyes, Evloev - parlay of week
 
Stat_Collector said:
He subbed and beat leonardo Santos who was a 7x Jiu-jitsu World Champion. And him having a competitive back and forth fight with Joaquim Silva who is a good finisher on the feet. Clay had his moments in that fight, he does somethings better on the feet than Chase. One of those is his ability to chain combinations with punches and kicks. Chase hooper is an aggressive fighter, and that is what caused Leonardo to lose his fight, is that he tried to eliminate Clay early, but Clay has a solid chin, if Chase goes in hard early and fails to get Clay out, the tables can flip and Clay could beat him with wrestling and aggressive fighting. Chase would have to gas, which he did in the Petterson fight, and Petterson held him down in ful guard, who is not a grappler by trade. Chase Hooper biggest problem is that he has bad fundamentals, he’s very awkward and doesn’t have good strength, his skinny frame allows him to get those subs, but it also makes it easy for guys to out muscle him and press him in the cage and out scramble.



I know they did bjj but Guida stayed in his full guard early when he didn’t have to. If clay avoids the ground for the first round and allows Chase to gas, it lowers the risk of a bottom sub.
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I actually bet Clay in the Santos fight. I didn't think he would get the sub, but certainly saw the possibility of Santos gassing and figured Guida would just win getting takedowns and staying safe. The sub didn't mean much to me. Santos was literally done prior to that.

It's certainly possible Guida goes in with a very smart gameplan to avoid Hooper for most of the fight and keep it standing. I just don't see him going that route, and even if he did, I'm not sure he can execute it. With Guida's lack of power standing and the submission threat being nil, he's basically got to bank on Hooper gassing hard. Even then, did he do enough early to get a decision?

I think the odds are where they are at for a reason here and honestly fairly justified.
 
1732760902040.jpeg

Aljo went 1/17 against Russian boxer on takedowns

And got taken down 7 times (100%) by Russian boxer

Evloev is much bigger and better wrestler than Petr
 
GetSomeSuga said:
View attachment 1073682

Aljo went 1/17 against Russian boxer on takedowns

And got taken down 7 times (100%) by Russian boxer

Evloev is much bigger and better wrestler than Petr
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Aljo is more an overall grappler than a wrestler. He's hard to control, and can use sweeps and scrambles even from bottom better than most to take the back, etc.

Yan is obviously a good grappler, anyone who's watched him knows that.

TD's are one part of grappling but that's it. Part, not all.

Also, with someone like Yan the threat of his striking is real. Which makes his grappling better. Evloev is a great wrestler but there's no striking threat at all really. Aljo gets to focus purely on combating the grappling. Which maybe he can't do...but it's far from as simple as youre making it out.
 
GetSomeSuga said:
I will write analysis for every single fight and post here on December 6. I still have to edit and write more. I done 10 hours of research so far. And this from what I understand.

Shavkat by SUBMISSION - best prop
Asakura, Volkov, Brown - best underdogs
Shavkat, Reyes, Evloev - parlay of week
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I dont think Shavkat submission wil be very good odds, hes a 4 to 1 favourite
 
mkess101 said:
Aljo is more an overall grappler than a wrestler. He's hard to control, and can use sweeps and scrambles even from bottom better than most to take the back, etc.

Yan is obviously a good grappler, anyone who's watched him knows that.

TD's are one part of grappling but that's it. Part, not all.

Also, with someone like Yan the threat of his striking is real. Which makes his grappling better. Evloev is a great wrestler but there's no striking threat at all really. Aljo gets to focus purely on combating the grappling. Which maybe he can't do...but it's far from as simple as youre making it out.
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I actually think Evloev's wrestling can work against him here. He got put in a tight guillotine against Lentz and Lopes also had him in a falling kimura or armbar if i remember , and at the end of the 3rd round lopes had Evloev in a kneebar and it looked somewhat painful, he shrugged it, but looked like he had his knee stretched backwards, and Alja has a kneebar himself he used on Stamann.

Evloev gives me the vibes of 'good wrestler, but avg bjj sub defense.' I call them wrestlers with white/blue belt jiu jitsu. Tho on the feet Evloev is favored cause of the Lopes fight, he landed clean combos on him, and he's also 5 years younger than Alja.

I think it's a close fight, i favor Evloev under 3 rounds, but can see a surprised finish if Alja catches him slipping and gets subbed from the bottom.

I dont have the sub line, but if i get something crazy like 600+ for Alja sub, i'm going to take a stab at it.
 
Stat_Collector said:
I actually think Evloev's wrestling can work against him here. He got put in a tight guillotine against Lentz and Lopes also had him in a falling kimura or armbar if i remember , and at the end of the 3rd round lopes had Evloev in a kneebar and it looked somewhat painful, he shrugged it, but looked like he had his knee stretched backwards, and Alja has a kneebar himself he used on Stamann.

Evloev gives me the vibes of 'good wrestler, but avg bjj sub defense.' I call them wrestlers with white/blue belt jiu jitsu. Tho on the feet Evloev is favored cause of the Lopes fight, he landed clean combos on him, and he's also 5 years younger than Alja.

I think it's a close fight, i favor Evloev under 3 rounds, but can see a surprised finish if Alja catches him slipping and gets subbed from the bottom.

I dont have the sub line, but if i get something crazy like 600+ for Alja sub, i'm going to take a stab at it.
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Lopes is pretty reckless with his striking defense. I dont think Evloev landing on him means a ton in terms of Evloev's striking. After the head kick KO loss to Moraes, Aljo seemed to become very defensively responsible in the standup. I don't see Evloev getting a lot done there. If he beats Aljo imo it's because Evloev does get his wrestling going.

Aljo sub is always live, I agree. His back takes are top tier and he's opportunistic.
 
While we're talking about Aljo/Evloev...can someone explain how Mitchell/Kron is on the ppv and this one on the prelims??? It's not even the "featured prelim" that they use to try to lure people into buying the ppv. Aljo/Evloev and Battle/Brown are both way more compelling than Bryce/Kron. And more important when it comes to divisions etc. Bryce got sent to the shadow realm by Emmett last fight and Kron barely fights and is a one dimensional guy in his late 30's that's not gonna evolve. Aljo/Evloev is a #1 contender fight. Brown and Battle both on win streaks.

Makes no sense to me.
 
Movsar vs Aljo sounds like it will go to split dec most of the time. Meaning the fight will be close as possible but imo Movsar still gets the win. Pass on bet side for me.
 
mkess101 said:
While we're talking about Aljo/Evloev...can someone explain how Mitchell/Kron is on the ppv and this one on the prelims??? It's not even the "featured prelim" that they use to try to lure people into buying the ppv. Aljo/Evloev and Battle/Brown are both way more compelling than Bryce/Kron. And more important when it comes to divisions etc. Bryce got sent to the shadow realm by Emmett last fight and Kron barely fights and is a one dimensional guy in his late 30's that's not gonna evolve. Aljo/Evloev is a #1 contender fight. Brown and Battle both on win streaks.

Makes no sense to me.
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They are both weird af so I guess they banking on the funny value
 
sonhow said:
They are both weird af so I guess they banking on the funny value
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Maybe LOL. But the potential for Bryce to not want to engage Kron on the mat is very real. Which means we get a shitty striker winning a boring decision over an even shittier striker.

I'm old AF so I remember Pe De Pano vs Jeff Monson way back when. They'd competed in grappling. World champ level guy in Pe De Pano vs ADCC top level grappler Monson. And...they stood and stared at each other for 15 minutes.
 
mkess101 said:
Maybe LOL. But the potential for Bryce to not want to engage Kron on the mat is very real. Which means we get a shitty striker winning a boring decision over an even shittier striker.

I'm old AF so I remember Pe De Pano vs Jeff Monson way back when. They'd competed in grappling. World champ level guy in Pe De Pano vs ADCC top level grappler Monson. And...they stood and stared at each other for 15 minutes.
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Heres hoping Bryce takes him down so we actually get a fight lol
 
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