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UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura

Garry prefers to maintain a bit of an outpointing sparring session type fight.
He "outgrappled" MVP because he couldn't hang on the feet, so at least he knows when to mix it up.
I agree that he might have some success if he's able to maintain the range + tempo, but I don't see him being able to do that until Shav is getting his takedowns stuffed and is exhausted.
Most likely outcome is: Shavkat by grappling advantage.
Best hedge: Livebet Garry when/if he starts showing signs of the tide turning.
 
GetSomeSuga said:
Ian garry

- panic wrestled and barely edged old MVP

-couldnt finish Magny (Shavkat choked him)

- wouldve lost to Geaf Neal if Neal pressed him in the 3rd round. Very passive performance. Was -110 in round 3 live odds
(Shavkat choked him)

-almost got KO’d by Kenan Song in round 1

-almost got KO’d by diabetic in round 1 in UFC debut
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I think this is all an extremely selective way to perceive him.

-MVP is good, would also give Shavkat trouble on the feet, and the fight showed Garry knows to mix up grappling and adapt his gameplan

-very disingenuous point when Garry obliterated Magny every round and one of the judges scored it 30-24 which is more impressive than a quick finish imo

-Geoff Neal is solid and also gave Shavkat a lot of trouble

-His fight with Song was when he was more green and showed he knows how to come back from being a nail which will be important against Shavkat as he ended up finishing Song later on anyway

-same as above
 
Joonc said:
I think this is all an extremely selective way to perceive him.

-MVP is good, would also give Shavkat trouble on the feet, and the fight showed Garry knows to mix up grappling and adapt his gameplan

-very disingenuous point when Garry obliterated Magny every round and one of the judges scored it 30-24 which is more impressive than a quick finish imo

-Geoff Neal is solid and also gave Shavkat a lot of trouble

-His fight with Song was when he was more green and showed he knows how to come back from being a nail which will be important against Shavkat as he ended up finishing Song later on anyway

-same as above
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Shavkat has 100% finishing rate and Garry 53% , shavkat hes a Nomad the other is cuck
 
My only losing bets in past 3 events

Oliveira itd (prop bet) - winner but wrong method
Silva dec (prop bet) - robbery according to MMAdecisions
Elliott dec (prop bet) - winner but wrong method

Gall - literally said in analysis Brahimaj is R1 or bust
Jackson - literally said in analysis Miller is R1 or bust
 
How u ever gonna talk shit when u parlyed Tyson and Chandler and called it the “Iron Mike” parlay🤣🤣😅
 
Guld said:
Garry prefers to maintain a bit of an outpointing sparring session type fight.
He "outgrappled" MVP because he couldn't hang on the feet, so at least he knows when to mix it up.
I agree that he might have some success if he's able to maintain the range + tempo, but I don't see him being able to do that until Shav is getting his takedowns stuffed and is exhausted.
Most likely outcome is: Shavkat by grappling advantage.
Best hedge: Livebet Garry when/if he starts showing signs of the tide turning.
Click to expand...
no one really knows if Shavkat is gassy or not, but it seems to fit the bill, good finishers often mean late gassers.

I have to admit tho the ctrl might be there for Shavkat, Mvp held Garry down and he just sat on his back until Mvp gave up his position in that 3rd round.
 
burge13 said:
Same thing he always does to win? It's not advocating Guida on being good but Hooper at that price is madness. He's a weedy kid, maybe he's improved a bit but I doubt he clears that line
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I'm a guy that has backed Guida a lot in the past. The same thing he always does to win is typically bank on either wrestling to outgrapple, pace wearing out the opponent, or making it a lackluster standup fight and mixing in a few takedowns here and there. He's pretty much always struggled against strong BJJ guys. He leaves a lot of holes grappling. His neck gets left out on shots often and he spends a lot of time in guard. This type of game seems awful for Hooper's style. A guy like Elkins who is taking down from the clinch, staying super tight and locking down in half guard, etc. is a much better style. Then on top of that, you have Hooper is a guy who presses forward. Guida always does better going forward. He's pretty easy to make uncomfortable and that's where he makes mistakes.

Honestly, I just see this as a nightmare matchup for him at this point in his career. He's facing someone who is a much better grappler and also high pace which negates Guida's entire game.
 
Oblivian said:
I'm a guy that has backed Guida a lot in the past. The same thing he always does to win is typically bank on either wrestling to outgrapple, pace wearing out the opponent, or making it a lackluster standup fight and mixing in a few takedowns here and there. He's pretty much always struggled against strong BJJ guys. He leaves a lot of holes grappling. His neck gets left out on shots often and he spends a lot of time in guard. This type of game seems awful for Hooper's style. A guy like Elkins who is taking down from the clinch, staying super tight and locking down in half guard, etc. is a much better style. Then on top of that, you have Hooper is a guy who presses forward. Guida always does better going forward. He's pretty easy to make uncomfortable and that's where he makes mistakes.

Honestly, I just see this as a nightmare matchup for him at this point in his career. He's facing someone who is a much better grappler and also high pace which negates Guida's entire game.
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Hooper also subbed him with a calf slicer in about 4 minutes 2 years ago, highly doubt Guida has improved drastically on that front as a 40yo.
 
Thesnake101 said:
Hooper also subbed him with a calf slicer in about 4 minutes 2 years ago, highly doubt Guida has improved drastically on that front as a 40yo.
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Hooper can be outgrappled and stalled out (see his grappling matches with Sterling and Moicano), but Guida's game doesn't really support that. I think Guida's best chance is to try to make this an awkward striking match. I'm not sure he'll have that strategy, but even if he does, he'll likely get pressured and either shoot or be forced into grappling exchanges from the clinch.
 
Line on Łukasz Brzeski is wide , Kennedy loss to washed Osp. Brzeski and Osp have similar skill sets, only Brzeski is younger and still got milage and a natural hw. Pretty confident it hits the scorecards. A dec line could be worth 500+ - 600+ for Brzeski.

Kennedy's best weapon is the straight left, but Brzeski tends to not do well with heavy punchers who spam hooks and overhands. I think he knows how to stay out of danger afar from the straight punches and work his kicks and 1-2 to the body.
 
Oblivian said:
I'm a guy that has backed Guida a lot in the past. The same thing he always does to win is typically bank on either wrestling to outgrapple, pace wearing out the opponent, or making it a lackluster standup fight and mixing in a few takedowns here and there. He's pretty much always struggled against strong BJJ guys. He leaves a lot of holes grappling. His neck gets left out on shots often and he spends a lot of time in guard. This type of game seems awful for Hooper's style. A guy like Elkins who is taking down from the clinch, staying super tight and locking down in half guard, etc. is a much better style. Then on top of that, you have Hooper is a guy who presses forward. Guida always does better going forward. He's pretty easy to make uncomfortable and that's where he makes mistakes.

Honestly, I just see this as a nightmare matchup for him at this point in his career. He's facing someone who is a much better grappler and also high pace which negates Guida's entire game.
Click to expand...

He subbed and beat leonardo Santos who was a 7x Jiu-jitsu World Champion. And him having a competitive back and forth fight with Joaquim Silva who is a good finisher on the feet. Clay had his moments in that fight, he does somethings better on the feet than Chase. One of those is his ability to chain combinations with punches and kicks. Chase hooper is an aggressive fighter, and that is what caused Leonardo to lose his fight, is that he tried to eliminate Clay early, but Clay has a solid chin, if Chase goes in hard early and fails to get Clay out, the tables can flip and Clay could beat him with wrestling and aggressive fighting. Chase would have to gas, which he did in the Petterson fight, and Petterson held him down in ful guard, who is not a grappler by trade. Chase Hooper biggest problem is that he has bad fundamentals, he’s very awkward and doesn’t have good strength, his skinny frame allows him to get those subs, but it also makes it easy for guys to out muscle him and press him in the cage and out scramble.



I know they did bjj but Guida stayed in his full guard early when he didn’t have to. If clay avoids the ground for the first round and allows Chase to gas, it lowers the risk of a bottom sub.
 
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Oblivian said:
Hooper can be outgrappled and stalled out (see his grappling matches with Sterling and Moicano), but Guida's game doesn't really support that. I think Guida's best chance is to try to make this an awkward striking match. I'm not sure he'll have that strategy, but even if he does, he'll likely get pressured and either shoot or be forced into grappling exchanges from the clinch.
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Aljo and Moicano are on completely different levels than even a prime Guida in terms of grappling. You're right about the stylistic aspect, but even putting that aside Clay has never been near the level those two are at. Prime Guida in any sort of grappling competition vs Moicano or Aljo...Guida is cooked. It's not close.
 
Stat_Collector said:
He subbed and beat leonardo Santos who was a 7x Jiu-jitsu World Champion. And him having a competitive back and forth fight with Joaquim Silva who is a good finisher on the feet. Clay had his moments in that fight, he does somethings better on the feet than Chase. One of those is his ability to chain combinations with punches and kicks. Chase hooper is an aggressive fighter, and that is what caused Leonardo to lose his fight, is that he tried to eliminate Clay early, but Clay has a solid chin, if Chase goes in hard early and fails to get Clay out, the tables can flip and Clay could beat him with wrestling and aggressive fighting. Chase would have to gas, which he did in the Petterson fight, and Petterson held him down in ful guard, who is not a grappler by trade. Chase Hooper biggest problem is that he has bad fundamentals, he’s very awkward and doesn’t have good strength, his skinny frame allows him to get those subs, but it also makes it easy for guys to out muscle him and press him in the cage and out scramble.



I know they did bjj but Guida stayed in his full guard early when he didn’t have to. If clay avoids the ground for the first round and allows Chase to gas, it lowers the risk of a bottom sub.
Click to expand...

At this point may be as likely that Hooper tosses Clay and gets top position. Maybe not, but he's not the skinny weakling he was and he has something massive on his side here that matters a lot: youth.
 
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