UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic

[Stat_Collector]

UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic | MMA Event | Tapology

UFC 309 took place Saturday, November 16, 2024 with 12 fights at Madison Square Garden in New York City, New York. View fight card, video, results, predictions, and news.

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[Hellowhosthat]

Like Martinez, Jackson, Moura and teh Chris.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Like Martinez, Jackson, Moura and teh Chris.

What is the read on Martinez?

I see him being quicker on the feet and quicker throwing leg kicks, but McGhee hits harder and can hurt Martinez early.

Seems dependent rather Martinez can weather the early storm and win a dec. There is a slight risk it could end up like Davey Grant fight or getting dropped by Alejandro Perez in round one, and he got wobbled by Aldo. It has a lot of weird elements.

McGhee has only lost to a grappler up until this point. But never seen him past round 2 so cant tell if he's a gasser or not.

 

[Hellowhosthat]

What is the read on Martinez?

I see him being quicker on the feet and quicker throwing leg kicks, but McGhee hits harder and can hurt Martinez early.

Seems dependent rather Martinez can weather the early storm and win a dec. There is a slight risk it could end up like Davey Grant fight or getting dropped by Alejandro Perez in round one, and he got wobbled by Aldo. It has a lot of weird elements.

McGhee has only lost to a grappler up until this point. But never seen him past round 2 so cant tell if he's a gasser or not.

Massive step up in competition mainly.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Massive step up in competition mainly.

Experience is his upside for sure. Perhaps gas tank too. Other than that he's facing someone that can match his kicks and mix in heavy hands. We'll see, looks like an ultra close fight on tape.

 

[Thesnake101]

Taking a chance on Miller rd 1 and his ML. Damon's a gritty physical guy but up a weight class and on the heels of not being able to keep a good pace in his last few fights I think he loses again.

The Chepe fight in particular was an extremely poor showing for him since he looked completely done after 1 round and was stuck in the mud for the rest of it.

Jim can still crack, and in fact it's what he prefers to do nowadays to set things up, and Damon doesn't have good defense. Miller sub could be live as well since I could see him forcing a bad shot out of Damon and jumping for a guilly.

Tybura's worth a shot, as long as he doesn't get chinned he should be able to outgrapple Diniz. Mulling over Brahimaj at dog odds since Gall is dumb and shit, but Ramiz is the definition of a regional fighter who is fodder for just about anyone with a pulse.

 

[mkess101]

Taking a chance on Miller rd 1 and his ML. Damon's a gritty physical guy but up a weight class and on the heels of not being able to keep a good pace in his last few fights I think he loses again.

The Chepe fight in particular was an extremely poor showing for him since he looked completely done after 1 round and was stuck in the mud for the rest of it.

Jim can still crack, and in fact it's what he prefers to do nowadays to set things up, and Damon doesn't have good defense. Miller sub could be live as well since I could see him forcing a bad shot out of Damon and jumping for a guilly.

Tybura's worth a shot, as long as he doesn't get chinned he should be able to outgrapple Diniz. Mulling over Brahimaj at dog odds since Gall is dumb and shit, but Ramiz is the definition of a regional fighter who is fodder for just about anyone with a pulse.

Brahimaj is a frontrunner, quick sub or bust guy and he's fighting a guy who yeah has big flaws but has really good bjj and is gritty and won't quit. Seems like they set Gall up to get a hometown win. (He's Jersey but close enough).

Edit: Brahimaj a hometown guy too. Guess they figure they can't lose on this one haha.

 

[Thesnake101]

Brahimaj is a frontrunner, quick sub or bust guy and he's fighting a guy who yeah has big flaws but has really good bjj and is gritty and won't quit. Seems like they set Gall up to get a hometown win. (He's Jersey but close enough).

Edit: Brahimaj a hometown guy too. Guess they figure they can't lose on this one haha.

I mean Gall himself is a sub or bust guy, Touahri is the only guy he's beaten by decision and Sage is the only other guy he beat that wasn't a first round finish.

Both are very deeply flawed and don't have the results to justify a play tbh. I'll pass instead, LFA prelim type fight.

 

[mkess101]

I mean Gall himself is a sub or bust guy, Touahri is the only guy he's beaten by decision and Sage is the only other guy he beat that wasn't a first round finish.

Both are very deeply flawed and don't have the results to justify a play tbh. I'll pass instead, LFA prelim type fight.

Fair, just watching the two it looks like Gall is the one who will actually fight for your $ whereas Brahimaj straight mails it in as soon as he realizes he's not getting the quick sub. Toss out the Diego fight (where Gall was literally going through kidney failure leading up to the fight and was hospitalized for like a week after) and Mickey at least hangs in there and tries even when he doesn't have enough to win. Brahimaj visually just looks like he stops even trying to win. Maybe an unfair assessment but it's what it looks like to me.

 

[Thesnake101]

Fair, just watching the two it looks like Gall is the one who will actually fight for your $ whereas Brahimaj straight mails it in as soon as he realizes he's not getting the quick sub. Toss out the Diego fight (where Gall was literally going through kidney failure leading up to the fight and was hospitalized for like a week after) and Mickey at least hangs in there and tries even when he doesn't have enough to win. Brahimaj visually just looks like he stops even trying to win. Maybe an unfair assessment but it's what it looks like to me.

Movable object vs the stoppable force. Gall seems willing to keep fighting, but his fight IQ and skills hold him back and Ramiz is the same only that he's less physically imposing. Still could see a world where Mickey ends up on his back for two rounds and loses the fight, since he's not very good on bottom despite his BJJ experience.

 

[Monster Meat]

Anders at -140 is a good line. Weidman has a suspect chin and he did nothing but eye poke in his last fight.

 

[Monster Meat]

Charles is my favorite bet on the card. ML is steep but good parlay material and hopefully the sub line is descent.

 

[mkess101]

Movable object vs the stoppable force. Gall seems willing to keep fighting, but his fight IQ and skills hold him back and Ramiz is the same only that he's less physically imposing. Still could see a world where Mickey ends up on his back for two rounds and loses the fight, since he's not very good on bottom despite his BJJ experience.

Definitely possible. I'm probably passing but if I was gonna play it if pay the juice on Gall.

 

[Hellowhosthat]

Taking a chance on Miller rd 1 and his ML. Damon's a gritty physical guy but up a weight class and on the heels of not being able to keep a good pace in his last few fights I think he loses again.

The Chepe fight in particular was an extremely poor showing for him since he looked completely done after 1 round and was stuck in the mud for the rest of it.

Jim can still crack, and in fact it's what he prefers to do nowadays to set things up, and Damon doesn't have good defense. Miller sub could be live as well since I could see him forcing a bad shot out of Damon and jumping for a guilly.

Tybura's worth a shot, as long as he doesn't get chinned he should be able to outgrapple Diniz. Mulling over Brahimaj at dog odds since Gall is dumb and shit, but Ramiz is the definition of a regional fighter who is fodder for just about anyone with a pulse.

I don't think Jim can push the kind of pace that Chepe pushes. He was pushing an absurd pace in that fight.

 

[Thesnake101]

I don't think Jim can push the kind of pace that Chepe pushes. He was pushing an absurd pace in that fight.

He might not need to, I think the size and power difference will be too much for Damon to get going here.

 

[Stat_Collector]

i just realized Chandler and Oliveira is a 5x5 rounder. probably wont change outcome ..


the prop bet : fight will end in 3 looks good. I can't honestly trust Charles wont fold, he almost did the first time. And i think Chandler will be more cautious this time that the fight will last longer.

 

[mkess101]

i just realized Chandler and Oliveira is a 5x5 rounder. probably wont change outcome ..


the prop bet : fight will end in 3 looks good. I can't honestly trust Charles wont fold, he almost did the first time. And i think Chandler will be more cautious this time that the fight will last longer.

Charles kinda went from a guy who folds when hurt to a guy who can get rocked but come back and finish. Plenty of those times where he folded were at 145 where he never should have been fighting so that's likely some of it. But looking at it he's been hit hard and stung by elite guys (Gaethje, Porier, Chandler) and came back to finish them all.

Somewhere along the line he flipped the script from "quitter" to a guy who will fight through adversity.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Charles kinda went from a guy who folds when hurt to a guy who can get rocked but come back and finish. Plenty of those times where he folded were at 145 where he never should have been fighting so that's likely some of it. But looking at it he's been hit hard and stung by elite guys (Gaethje, Porier, Chandler) and came back to finish them all.

Somewhere along the line he flipped the script from "quitter" to a guy who will fight through adversity.

id rather cover both to play it safe or i could play Charles R3 as an alternative. I favor him, but i'm not ruling out a Chandler upset.

1 overzealous ref could call the fight not knowing this is just another Charles recovery from near death moment.

 

[mkess101]

id rather cover both to play it safe or i could play Charles R3 as an alternative. I favor him, but i'm not ruling out a Chandler upset.

1 overzealous ref could call the fight not knowing this is just another Charles recovery from near death moment.

Yeah there's a lot of unknowns with Chandler here too. Long ass layoff and dude isn't young. I think Charles finishes within 2 rounds but it's absolutely a wild card with Chandler's power and Charles' tendency to get hit.

 

[Thesnake101]

38, 2 years away and coming off getting subbed for the first time make me think Mike doesn't turn back the clock. He's also pretty stupid when it comes to strategy, and I can't forget how Charles caught him unaware with a takedown early in their first fight.

It's either Mike rd 1 or he's done, so if you're playing the fight then look towards hedging like that.